Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail
There's more to consider than just Capital cost per daily new transit ride. But Capital cost per daily new transit ride is a real metric uses to discern the value of a project. And we all know using this metric says this is a bad project. Which explains why I see so much dissension on this project, but explain so little of why the State wants this so much.
I know I already got responses that the State wants this so much because the Fall River/New Bedford are the only two major cities lacking any transit. But given lack (or at least visible) support on the grassroots level, I don't see the political gains. Given the metrics (and the metrics we're using are also the same metrics experts/professionals are using) are so bad, I don't see transit planning logic either. Yet, this is the project that state would actually fight when ecnountering trouble (like when the estimate went up $2bn to $3bn - meanwhile GLX had to be saved by advocates)
The problem with relying on capital cost per daily new transit rider is that to do so, you have to assume the ridership projections are accurate.
Often times they're not, and usually by large margins. The Secretary admits as much. Now, the MBTA/MassDOT
have to rely on those models because, well, that's the data they have. But we don't have to, and I'm not going to put a ton of stock into capital costs that are calculated using estimates that are created by a flawed model. On this front, we'll see.
That's not to say the project isn't severely flawed. It certainly is. F-Line breaks down the technical faults with SCR repeatedly and he's dead-on accurate as usual.
I'm also not convinced that politics don't play a significant role in all of this. I also disagree that "every governor going back to Weld wanted South Coast Rail." Every administration since Weld has paid
lip service to South Coast Rail. It's been a prerequisite for winning over voters from that region for decades. But few administrations have actually done much more than the obligatory "study." Patrick held SCR "groundbreakings" on a handful of freight rail improvement projects, but even he was mostly talk. So there was a lot of pressure on Baker to not be just more of the same. Especially as an R governor in a D state with a rapidly worsening traffic situation and few employment opportunities outside of metro Boston. As a fiscal conservative, he couldn't move the $3 Billion proposal through, but the $1B "Phase 1" alternative made sense politically.
I'm a little perplexed by the whole "no grassroots support" comments. Where are you looking? I mostly grew up on the south coast and commuted to Boston from the region as an adult for years. There's not a week that goes by (for as long as I can remember) where it hasn't been mentioned at political events, covered by the paper, pushed by local C of Cs or organizations like SRPEDD, etc. Maybe the push is far enough outside of the Boston bubble that it doesn't get coverage, but it's there just as much as any other project. I would argue that because of these efforts (and the influence they have on local politicians), the project
isn't dead some 30 years later.
It also seems like people forget about Taunton in all of these discussions. Maybe "South Coast Rail" was just branded terribly, but Taunton is the city that gains the most out of this project. At least initially. It's equally as under-served as the South Coast, it's far closer to Boston than FR/NB, and it'll have double the frequencies that FR/NB do.
In a perfect world, "Phase 1" would have been an electrified extension of the Stoughton Branch down to Taunton. Shuttle buses, coordinated with commuter rail arrivals/departures, could have been run from the Taunton station to Fall River/New Bedford for a few years while the state gained real data which they could use to determine whether or not to complete the "Phase 2" electrified extensions to FR/NB.