Delvin4519
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15 minutes is nowhere near SUAG frequencies. Especially when transferring, an untimed 15 minute transfer is extremely unpredictable and hard to plan for. They can add up signficantly if more than 1 transfer is required, or reliability and bunching issues arise, then such an untimed 15 minute transfer can easily end up causing a 30 minute variability in travel time.I'm so sad that 15 minute is our "best" effort here. That would be so laughable in so many countries around the world - from Mexico to Malta - and metros - Denver, Chicago, SF.
*SIGH*
Think about travelling from the northside Orange Line to Allston Brighton. An hourly bus to get from Maplewood Square or Fellsway Garage to Malden Center; okay, it's fine to time one's departure to get that hourly bus. Next, an untimed 11 - 15 minute transfer at Malden Center for an Orange Line to North Station, another untimed 9 - 13 minute transfer at North Station for an E branch Heath St train to Govy or a D (good luck getting a D, it's running 25% less service than pre-COVID). Then at Govy you have another untimed transfer for a train to Kenmore, with 3 branches, it's probably only an untimed 3 - 6 minute transfer on the same platform. Finally at Kenmore, another untimed 13 - 17 minute transfer for the 57 bus to finally get to Allston Brighton, which is likely bunched due to slow travel in traffic.
That is a total of 42 - 51 minute variability in untimed transfers alone, let alone congestion causing travel time varibility in the Green Line central subway tunnel, or buses that constantly get stuck in traffic. (Good luck in the reverse direction, getting the hourly bus back for the return trip).
If we want transferring between modes in a transit system to be smooth and convenient, 15 minute untimed transfers cannot suffice. You want at least 7 vph frequencies, or a headway of no greater than 10 minutes, for riders to be receptive of untimed transfers. Single digit headways are the only time where it's essentially SUAG.
Toronto and Barcelona each have frequent grids of every 7 - 9 minutes even off peak. In places like these, passengers would be much more receptive to transfers, and as such, after Barcelona's network redesign, the # of transferring passengers skyrocketed. Houston's bus network redesign only had a 15 minute standard, and riders there did not really seem to be receptive of such an untimed transfer.
Here are the quotes from the linked article:
The high off-peak frequency in Barcelona is a notable departure from Jarrett Walker’s American network redesigns; the evidence in Houston appears mixed – ridership is about flat, compared with declines elsewhere in the country – but the percentage of transfers does not seem to have risen. Jarrett says in his book that having a bus come every 10 minutes means “almost show-up-and-go frequency” with no need to look at schedules, but his work in Houston and more recently in San Jose involves routes running every 15 minutes.
I specifically mentioned the problem with the 15-minute standard as too loose; given a choice between an untimed 15-minute network and a timed 30-minute network, the latter may well be more flexible. However, if the buses come every 5 minutes, the situation changes profoundly.
Another article:
American advocacy regarding frequency comes extremely compromised. The sort of frequencies that permit passengers to transfer between buses without timing the connection are single-digit headways, and the digit should probably not be a 9 or even an 8. Nova Xarxa successfully streamlined Barcelona’s bus network as a frequent grid, with buses coming every 3-8 minutes depending on the route. Vancouver and Toronto’s frequent grids are both in the 5-8 minute range.
In this case, all of the key bus network in Boston would need to be bumped from 15 minute headways to a minimum of 9 minute headways. This also inclues raising the Orange Line and the Green Line D and E branches from an atrocious off peak every 10 - 16 minute headways to at least an 8 minute headway.
A 15 minute headway for surface routes like buses in Boston may be fine if it's late evening or a Sunday, but if it's daytime Monday through Saturday, they should really be raised to a 9 minute headway until 8pm; but even evening headways should probably be shortened to 9 minutes until 11:30pm to keep untimed transfers functional for late trips.
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