General MBTA Topics (Multi Modal, Budget, MassDOT)

[Shepard]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Sorry Kent, but I think your boss is talking bollocks. If Boston (inside 128) didn't have enough density then there wouldn't be more people here living car-free or commuting by foot, transit, or bike than almost any other city in the US outside of New York. Sure, the costs of transit need to be subsidized, but so do roads. The fact that the MBTA has feeder buses to the subway stations is a source of efficiency, not an indication otherwise.

The reason NYC is train-heavy is that before the MTA there were 3 different transit companies in competition. It created a lot of stations but also a lot of redundancy and inefficiency (the spaghetti messes around downtown Brooklyn, lower Manhattan, and Long Island City, as well as insufficient east-west Manhattan service) and still left out large swaths of Queens and the Bronx. In scope the MTA and MBTA may not be comparable, but the financial situation is not dissimilar (and it has little to do with density).

 

[JohnAKeith]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

I'm curious, what was the T Board's response when you all brought up your complaints during their public hearings?

 

[Shepard]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Really John, which public hearings exactly?

If democracy/public sector relies on straightheaded citizens showing up to "public hearings" to reach common sense decisions then democracy/public sector has already failed.

 

[whighlander]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Sorry Kent, but I think your boss is talking bollocks. If Boston (inside 128) didn't have enough density then there wouldn't be more people here living car-free or commuting by foot, transit, or bike than almost any other city in the US outside of New York. Sure, the costs of transit need to be subsidized, but so do roads. The fact that the MBTA has feeder buses to the subway stations is a source of efficiency, not an indication otherwise.

The reason NYC is train-heavy is that before the MTA there were 3 different transit companies in competition. It created a lot of stations but also a lot of redundancy and inefficiency (the spaghetti messes around downtown Brooklyn, lower Manhattan, and Long Island City, as well as insufficient east-west Manhattan service) and still left out large swaths of Queens and the Bronx. In scope the MTA and MBTA may not be comparable, but the financial situation is not dissimilar (and it has little to do with density).

Shep -- heard an interrview with DOT Sec today -- the highlights:

1) fare rise / service cut proposals, as printed in the papers are just talking points to get the discussion going
2) excluding the debt service -- operating the T costs in excess of $1B per year while the customer fares bring in less than $0.5 B
3) No Transit agency anywhere except Hong Kong operates at breakeven or above
4) there will be many meetings and opportunity to comment before the final plan is implemented

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Shep -- heard an interrview with DOT Sec today -- the highlights:

1) fare rise / service cut proposals, as printed in the papers are just talking points to get the discussion going
2) excluding the debt service -- operating the T costs in excess of $1B per year while the customer fares bring in less than $0.5 B
3) No Transit agency anywhere except Hong Kong operates at breakeven or above
4) there will be many meetings and opportunity to comment before the final plan is implemented

Fully consistent with what Davey repeatedly said since early on in his MBTA GM tenure: transit would always be dependent on subidy rather than total self-sufficiency, but the agency could operate comfortably in its intended means while gradually paying off remaining debt service if. . .

-- The Big Dig costs were off the books, reducing debt service payment installments by $100M each.
-- Forward funding got reformed and had tax rates refitted for a variable economy instead of Pollyanna boom times.
-- Labor costs and contracts got reformed. They're particularly hamstrung on blowing up some contracts by the limitations of their charter.
-- New revenue streams were sought. In the particular interview where he made these 4 points, he said straight-up, "Yes...system expansion is a major driver of this." Although this was same interview where he also said if it were totally up to him he'd throw a billion into the existing system before making the big splash on South Coast FAIL, so he's talking the broad definition of "expansion" encompassing any improvements that pack more riders onto the system...not exclusive to just building shiny things.

Other efficiency-related things were internally reformable, but it's those first 3 that need intervention from a higher power due to the constraints on their own self-determination. All other internally drivable means are effectively held hostage until they get that intervention. It's Beacon Hill's serve.

 

[Kahta]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Fully consistent with what Davey repeatedly said since early on in his MBTA GM tenure: transit would always be dependent on subidy rather than total self-sufficiency, but the agency could operate comfortably in its intended means while gradually paying off remaining debt service if. . .

-- The Big Dig costs were off the books, reducing debt service payment installments by $100M each.
-- Forward funding got reformed and had tax rates refitted for a variable economy instead of Pollyanna boom times.
-- Labor costs and contracts got reformed. They're particularly hamstrung on blowing up some contracts by the limitations of their charter.
-- New revenue streams were sought. In the particular interview where he made these 4 points, he said straight-up, "Yes...system expansion is a major driver of this." Although this was same interview where he also said if it were totally up to him he'd throw a billion into the existing system before making the big splash on South Coast FAIL, so he's talking the broad definition of "expansion" encompassing any improvements that pack more riders onto the system...not exclusive to just building shiny things.

Other efficiency-related things were internally reformable, but it's those first 3 that need intervention from a higher power due to the constraints on their own self-determination. All other internally drivable means are effectively held hostage until they get that intervention. It's Beacon Hill's serve.

Keep in mind, Davis-Bacon and the even stronger MA laws on prevailing wage increase the cost of labor for any capital improvement by at least 50% over what a private company would be doing.

 

[KentXie]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Sorry Kent, but I think your boss is talking bollocks. If Boston (inside 128) didn't have enough density then there wouldn't be more people here living car-free or commuting by foot, transit, or bike than almost any other city in the US outside of New York. Sure, the costs of transit need to be subsidized, but so do roads. The fact that the MBTA has feeder buses to the subway stations is a source of efficiency, not an indication otherwise.

The reason NYC is train-heavy is that before the MTA there were 3 different transit companies in competition. It created a lot of stations but also a lot of redundancy and inefficiency (the spaghetti messes around downtown Brooklyn, lower Manhattan, and Long Island City, as well as insufficient east-west Manhattan service) and still left out large swaths of Queens and the Bronx. In scope the MTA and MBTA may not be comparable, but the financial situation is not dissimilar (and it has little to do with density).

Actually that tidbit is not from my boss, it's from me, and no it's not a load of bollocks. According to my economics book, to support a bus system at the intermediate level (two buses per hour and 1/2 mile between the line) it requires around 31 people per hectares in a 800 meter radius (around a 10 minute walk from the bus stop). Only TWO major metropolitan areas has this density, New York City and Honolulu.

Of course the core of many major cities have a density greater than this which allows mass transit including heavy rail. NYC, for example, at its core is around 80+ people per hectares. Now as dense as Boston is, many of the rail system have stations that are no where near level where it can support it (in fact many areas aren't even dense enough to support buses). Blue line expansion into the city of Lynn where the density is about 26.44 per hectare which is below the 31 required for feeder buses. I do not know how dense is the core of the city. Now think of all the other expansions into small towns and cities, especially for the commuter rail. None of them have feeder buses and all requires cars to get to. None of these expansions are justifiable and all requires heavy subsidizing in order to break even.

If Boston (inside 128) didn't have enough density then there wouldn't be more people here living car-free or commuting by foot, transit, or bike than almost any other city in the US outside of New York. Sure, the costs of transit need to be subsidized, but so do roads. The fact that the MBTA has feeder buses to the subway stations is a source of efficiency, not an indication otherwise.

In response to the first statement, the amount of people living car free, etc. has nothing to do in relationship to density. You have it confused with accessibility. For example you can take a sprawled out city, over build it with mass transit so that it becomes very accessible and the number of car-free transit users will go up. However, that sprawled out city would not be able to support over-expansion.

Feeder buses, in this case, are not a sign of efficiency for rail stations. It is efficient in that bus transportation is closer to the density level supported by the area it serves. However when a station does not generate enough ridership it requires another mode of transportation to deliver riders and thus the need for feeder buses.

 

[whighlander]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Actually that tidbit is not from my boss, it's from me, and no it's not a load of bollocks. According to my economics book, to support a bus system at the intermediate level (two buses per hour and 1/2 mile between the line) it requires around 31 people per hectares in a 800 meter radius (around a 10 minute walk from the bus stop). Only TWO major metropolitan areas has this density, New York City and Honolulu.

...

Kent wrote ".... to support a bus system at the intermediate level (two buses per hour and 1/2 mile between the line) it requires around 31 people per hectares in a 800 meter radius (around a 10 minute walk from the bus stop). Only TWO major metropolitan areas has this density, New York City and Honolulu. "

Problem with relying on books for such things as bus route locations as opposed to how many buses can sit on a bridge before it breaks -- is that it just sounds good (especially when you use hectares and miles)

Ultimately the real problem is that there is no law of nature that says 31 versus 30.3 or 33.9 no matter what the units -- I personally prefer sq cubits for area and furlongs for spacing of the stops

Please! -- This kind of soft science is then compounded by the comparison of the metro areas of NYC and Honolulu -- I'm working hard with my over-the-hill-brain (some bunch in UK -- I can't quite remember who -- put out a study today that says brains go down hill after 45 not 60 as previously stated) -- to think of two less related metro areas in the US -- other than both are centered on an island

I live just a short walk up a hill from the Mass Ave strip from Harvard to Lexington Center -- for the Cambridge and Arlington parts the #77 bus runs quite full at a rate of one bus every 15 minutes or less

even after you cross into Lexington and lose most of the apartment buildings the #62 bus from Alewife is quite full -- running 2X per hour during rush hour.

Just behind me on the Rt-2 side of the hill there are two other buses which are fairly busy -- and the entire area is single family housing on a fairly dense spacing (a circle of radius 100 cubits from my living room passes through at least 6 other houses)

 

[jass]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Earlier in this thread, Ron proposed that the MBTA default and erase all debts.

Someone said they cant do that, because nobody would ever lend to the MBTA again...


So how is it that airlines, which are constantly unprofitable, can declare bankruptcy every other year, wipe out debt...and still get billions in loans for new planes?

 

[whighlander]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Earlier in this thread, Ron proposed that the MBTA default and erase all debts.

Someone said they cant do that, because nobody would ever lend to the MBTA again...


So how is it that airlines, which are constantly unprofitable, can declare bankruptcy every other year, wipe out debt...and still get billions in loans for new planes?

Jass -- airlines are publicly owned corporations -- their investors (common stock, preferred stock, notes or bonds) know that there are risks such as losing all or part of your investment in exchange for a fairly high rate of return

the T, Boston, the Commonwealth of Mass, or the US Treasury -- in inverse quality order -- as issuers of Municipal 9revenue or general obligation) or US debt obligations are assumed to be nearly perfectly reliable in not just protecting the principle -- but even paying the interest -- you can't own stock in these -- but you can't lose either

Well OK -- occasionally some poorly managed town, or city does stop paying for a while and extremely rarely (usually overseas) they repudiate the debt and end up paying back only a fraction of the principle or in the worst case 0 -- USSR repudiated all of the Russian Imperial debt in 1917

Note that when Russia replaced the USSR it didn't repudiate any USSR obligations except for the WWII Lend Lease which is still being renegotiated

In the future these places that write off their debts have to pay nearly the rates of a questionable corporate bond to attract investors

For example Greece which only threatened default recently had to borrow some money at 20+ %

 

[KentXie]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Kent wrote ".... to support a bus system at the intermediate level (two buses per hour and 1/2 mile between the line) it requires around 31 people per hectares in a 800 meter radius (around a 10 minute walk from the bus stop). Only TWO major metropolitan areas has this density, New York City and Honolulu. "

Problem with relying on books for such things as bus route locations as opposed to how many buses can sit on a bridge before it breaks -- is that it just sounds good (especially when you use hectares and miles)

Ultimately the real problem is that there is no law of nature that says 31 versus 30.3 or 33.9 no matter what the units -- I personally prefer sq cubits for area and furlongs for spacing of the stops

Please! -- This kind of soft science is then compounded by the comparison of the metro areas of NYC and Honolulu -- I'm working hard with my over-the-hill-brain (some bunch in UK -- I can't quite remember who -- put out a study today that says brains go down hill after 45 not 60 as previously stated) -- to think of two less related metro areas in the US -- other than both are centered on an island

I live just a short walk up a hill from the Mass Ave strip from Harvard to Lexington Center -- for the Cambridge and Arlington parts the #77 bus runs quite full at a rate of one bus every 15 minutes or less

even after you cross into Lexington and lose most of the apartment buildings the #62 bus from Alewife is quite full -- running 2X per hour during rush hour.

Just behind me on the Rt-2 side of the hill there are two other buses which are fairly busy -- and the entire area is single family housing on a fairly dense spacing (a circle of radius 100 cubits from my living room passes through at least 6 other houses)

The logic is quite simple for the Honolulu and NYC comparison. Obviously Honolulu gets the benefit of a small metropolitan in terms of land size that keeps density up.

However the view you provided is quite flawed for that it observes small sample sizes in terms of the number of bus/train routes and time. A few bus routes are important and re supported with enough riders. Those tend to show up on the MBTA transit map as "key buses." But most other routes, not so much. The 92 for example for most of the day is rarely completely full. The 93 that I ride on is nearly empty on most trips on Sunday. I've seen 39 buses that comes so close to each other that none of them are full. Same goes for the Orange Line just prior to rush hour. Barely anyone utilizes the Community College station on the Orange Line (not surprisingly there are no feeder buses going there and it's away from the residential area.) I normally don't see the route 1 bus full. Most of the stops on the D line past Longwood with the exception of Newton Center and Reservoir sees much traffic. Same goes with the B line past Harvard Ave.

While I'll admit there isn't one specific quantity of ridership that can support each level of transit, I can safely say that the expansions that the MBTA are obligated to construct will not generate enough ridership from the new stations' surrounding areas to break even.

 

[jass]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

Jass -- airlines are publicly owned corporations -- their investors (common stock, preferred stock, notes or bonds) know that there are risks such as losing all or part of your investment in exchange for a fairly high rate of return

the T, Boston, the Commonwealth of Mass, or the US Treasury -- in inverse quality order -- as issuers of Municipal 9revenue or general obligation) or US debt obligations are assumed to be nearly perfectly reliable in not just protecting the principle -- but even paying the interest -- you can't own stock in these -- but you can't lose either

Well OK -- occasionally some poorly managed town, or city does stop paying for a while and extremely rarely (usually overseas) they repudiate the debt and end up paying back only a fraction of the principle or in the worst case 0 -- USSR repudiated all of the Russian Imperial debt in 1917

Note that when Russia replaced the USSR it didn't repudiate any USSR obligations except for the WWII Lend Lease which is still being renegotiated

In the future these places that write off their debts have to pay nearly the rates of a questionable corporate bond to attract investors

For example Greece which only threatened default recently had to borrow some money at 20+ %

When the OC declared bankruptcy in the 90s, what happened to the debt?

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

When the OC declared bankruptcy in the 90s, what happened to the debt?

They went under Chapter 9 bankruptcy, which is the part of the code specifically created for municipalities. Allows, among other things, ability for higher intervention to blow up and renegotiate labor deals when the local/state gov't is prohibited from doing so, and in the OC's case granted them leeway to sue the corrupt institutions and officials who precipitated the crisis and recoup $600M in losses. They were able to emerge from bankruptcy in 1 year because of the extra powers afforded.

Chapter 9's only been used on that scale twice in U.S. history: the OC and Jefferson County, AL which filed for it 2 months ago. All others have been smaller towns (Central Falls, RI filed in August and is under active receivership). Agencies/districts that have done it have mostly been school districts and the like. Only transit agency to try it was the Las Vegas Monorail, but it got ruled ineligible because it's run as a non-profit corporation through a weird quirk in Nevada law not applicable anywhere else.


So, yeah, the procedures are absolutely there and applicable to a public transit authority. But...boy...that's one unpredictable thermonuclear explosion of unknown trajectory if they go there because the T would be by far the largest and most region-critical authority to ever try it. It's no substitute for the Legislature passing on action. They must exhaust every option under their power before Chapter 9 is on the table, because the feds will quash such a move immediately and scold the state to get back to doing the things that are in its power like transferring the Big Dig debt and fixing forward funding and contracts within the state house's purview. Only if things are still totally fucked after that can they appeal to the fed level to nuke any remaining labor deals the state can't touch on its own. And things are not nearly that fucked. The state does have all the power to move the Big Dig costs, change the funding scheme, reboot some of the most egregious labor deals, and clean up a lot of the money pits. And that is factually all that's needed to safely stave off outright default. The T would still be very much addled for a decade or more under debt payment load, but it would be much more functional on fulfilling basic services and be able to make constant, if slow, forward progress on lowering the debt. That's the very definition of staving off bankruptcy through self-reorganization so it's very improbable it'll ever come to default.

Sorry...no laziness excuses for throwing up the white flag and letting the feds do the dirty work. This is still all on the Legislature and Gov. to get off their asses and do the things they hold all the power to do.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

MBTA management has ruled out the possibility of taking over direct operation of the state's commuter rail network. Instead, officials say they may seek a longer-term contract with a private operator.

. . .

The possibility of in-house operations was raised after last winter's delays and breakdowns last winter, largely blamed on antiquated equipment.

But acting general manager Jonathan Davis has told the T's board the so-called "public option" is too risky.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma...ver_ponders_next_rail_contract/?p1=News_links


Least surprising press release ever. They never considered for one bloody second the possibility of reform even after giving MBCR a public tarring-and-feathering over last winter's delays and accusing (for shock!...a for-profit company) of squeezing profit out of ignoring maintenance and milking contract loopholes to dodge responsibility.

Who else is going to bid on this dysfunctional contract? Not Amtrak...they happily washed their hands of the T's passive-aggressive working relationship 9 years ago. MBCR's the only one. Some other party out of left field gets immediately disqualified for not knowing the area. This is a gift-wrapped MBCR rubber-stamp telegraphed a year in advance by people deep in each other's pockets. Status quo now, status quo forever...and can't someone else take a mulligan for my self-inflicted wounds?


Somebody at God's level please blow up this sad freakshow already.

 

[whighlander]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

The logic is quite simple for the Honolulu and NYC comparison. Obviously Honolulu gets the benefit of a small metropolitan in terms of land size that keeps density up.

However the view you provided is quite flawed for that it observes small sample sizes in terms of the number of bus/train routes and time. A few bus routes are important and re supported with enough riders......

While I'll admit there isn't one specific quantity of ridership that can support each level of transit, I can safely say that the expansions that the MBTA are obligated to construct will not generate enough ridership from the new stations' surrounding areas to break even.

Kent -- I never said that they would -- all I said is that outside of the Physical Sciences and Engineering that these "book" highly quantitative solutions are essentially of the same value as looking up the long-term weather forecasts - the complexity of the systems are such that each case is unique and fomulae don't have really any relevance

As you pointed out -- the use of individual examples is also a flawed methodology -- the only way to know is to try it and then adjust -- realistically you probably can't even get much useful information comparing something that works in Lexington with something that might in Newton or Wellesley

 

[jass]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

They went under Chapter 9 bankruptcy....

Very interesting, thanks.

That reminds me, I wonder whats happening with the LV monorail....The shortsightedness of the casinos knows no bounds. It's not like those 8,000 car garages are cheap to build.


If the MBTA were a private business (cough a bank cough) Im sure they could orchestrate some master plan where a homeless man purchases the MBTA debt for $1 and then defaults on it.

 

[Kahta]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

The logic is quite simple for the Honolulu and NYC comparison. Obviously Honolulu gets the benefit of a small metropolitan in terms of land size that keeps density up.

However the view you provided is quite flawed for that it observes small sample sizes in terms of the number of bus/train routes and time. A few bus routes are important and re supported with enough riders. Those tend to show up on the MBTA transit map as "key buses." But most other routes, not so much. The 92 for example for most of the day is rarely completely full. The 93 that I ride on is nearly empty on most trips on Sunday. I've seen 39 buses that comes so close to each other that none of them are full. Same goes for the Orange Line just prior to rush hour. Barely anyone utilizes the Community College station on the Orange Line (not surprisingly there are no feeder buses going there and it's away from the residential area.) I normally don't see the route 1 bus full. Most of the stops on the D line past Longwood with the exception of Newton Center and Reservoir sees much traffic. Same goes with the B line past Harvard Ave.

While I'll admit there isn't one specific quantity of ridership that can support each level of transit, I can safely say that the expansions that the MBTA are obligated to construct will not generate enough ridership from the new stations' surrounding areas to break even.

If you look at any of the expansion plans of the MBTA, the operating cost per rider is substantially higher than any sane fare.

 

[whighlander]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

It's no substitute for the Legislature passing on action. They must exhaust every option under their power before Chapter 9 is on the table, because the feds will quash such a move immediately and scold the state to get back to doing the things that are in its power like transferring the Big Dig debt and fixing forward funding and contracts within the state house's purview...... And that is factually all that's needed to safely stave off outright default. The T would still be very much addled for a decade or more under debt payment load, but it would be much more functional on fulfilling basic services and be able to make constant, if slow, forward progress on lowering the debt. That's the very definition of staving off bankruptcy through self-reorganization so it's very improbable it'll ever come to default.

Sorry...no laziness excuses for throwing up the white flag and letting the feds do the dirty work. This is still all on the Legislature and Gov. to get off their asses and do the things they hold all the power to do.

F-Line ... Nothing like the above is possible as long as the majority of the Legislature and the Governor are in all the way with the big unions

The Governor wants to add to the tax burden -- mostly in the form of gasoline tax increase -- However in the current climate the Legislature is scared to touch that one

Some transfer of the Big Dig related T debt is possibly -- but I doubt it could happen before there is a new Legislature

As a result after all the public hearings and comments - the most likely outcome this summer will be a combination of:
a) some service cuts-- less drastic than floated
b) some fare increases -- less drastic than floated
c) some minor work-rule or benefits concession by the Carman's union
d) and some sort of cash transfer to the T account to cover some of the debt service to make it all balance -- most possibly by changing the allocation of the sales tax

No one will be happy and so that will be the deal -- it will await a new Governor with some leadership skill and another new legislature less beholden to the unions to really change things

 

[JohnAKeith]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

It's gonna be a hard sell, that's for sure, to raise any sort of revenue to cover the deficit. The money raised would basically go just to pay interest on debt.

Who wants to pay for that?

 

[datadyne007]

Re: Driven By Customer 'Service' Parte Dos

New Signs at Logan Airport Countdown When the Next Silver Line Buses Arrive
January 26th, 2012 by Lisa DeCanio

...Now though, weary commuters at Logan Airport will no longer have to guess when the Silver Line is coming. The MBTA has installed its first LED sign at Logan’s Terminal C, which displays a minute-by-minute countdown of when the next Silver Line buses are arriving...

http://bostinno.com/2012/01/26/new-...tdown-when-the-next-silver-line-buses-arrive/

---
Why can't we have nice things? =(