Green Line Extension to Medford & Union Sq

[tysmith95]

$5 regardless of GLX outcome there will never be *another* expansion of the T in our lifetime (40 years). It's simply too expensive and nobody wants to pay for it. None of it is getting cheaper either.

North-South rail connector (fingers crossed). That along with electrification of the commuter rail lines to create a S-Bahn like system with more frequent service would really help the region compete on a global scale. But I agree with you that'll it'll probably never happen. We can hope though!

 

[chmeeee]

At $2.3B, I understand. There are lots of projects upgrading current infrastructure that could be done with $1.3B of the state's money; and some of those could get federal matching for that other $1B.

How much of that $1.3B is already spent?

 

[datadyne007]

How much of that $1.3B is already spent?

$700.6 million

 

[Scipio]

$5 regardless of GLX outcome there will never be *another* expansion of the T in our lifetime (40 years). It's simply too expensive and nobody wants to pay for it. None of it is getting cheaper either.

I'm starting to feel this way too and have given up on the crazy transit pitches thread here, fun as it may be. The only other electric rail expansion I see as remotely feasible in at least the next 20 years would be Orange to Rozzie Square.

Other than that this region is done unless there are some large shifts in how projects are funded and delivered, and I don't see that happening unless there are greater national or international trends afoot.

 

[bakgwailo]

So, I know this has been brought up before, but it seems like this should have been cost re-estimating without graft in addition to alternate cheaper routing/etc. I would think with a more modest maintenance facility, the contractor graft in check, and decoupling the trail would reduce costs quite a bit. In fact, why aren't things like the rail trail decoupled completely from this and funded on its own? I am not saying not build it - just don't make the MBTA pay for it. Rapid transit expansion should be just that - any other addons and nice to haves should be funded off the MBTA's ledger. Frustrating on why someone can't just step in and say: lets just do this with this plan and put it to the most reasonable bidder and then hold said contractor to the fire to get it done in budget without sacrificing things like station shelters. Nothing but reasonable stations and rail.

 

[tangent]

Would be interesting if FTA takes a look at this redesign and decides it will cost less than $2 billion as many here have said.

 

[Java King]

I know it's probably apples to oranges comparison. New streetcar line in KC for 102 Million and it runs until 2am on weekends!

http://www.railjournal.com/index.ph...ens-downtown-light-rail-line.html?device=auto

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Top administration members represent the governor, not themselves. She is an extension of Baker. While she may have input in the process, you better believe that her messaging will be consistent with Baker. I cannot stress the importance of having a unified administration. Baker is to blame for this at the end of the day

http://commonwealthmagazine.org/transportation/board-gives-yellow-light-to-green-line-ext/

Rafael Mares, vice president at the Conservation Law Foundation, said Pollack’s comments seemed to reflect the mindset of her current boss, Gov. Charlie Baker. “She channeled the governor in what she said,” he said. Asked how her comments on Monday squared with her support for the Green Line Extension as a transportation advocate, Mares said: “She had a different boss then.”

Yup.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Also. . .

http://commonwealthmagazine.org/transportation/t-takes-risk-with-new-construction-method/

A report by the interim project management team tasked with presenting options for building the stalled extension says the cost can be reduced from nearly $3 billion to $2.3 billion by eliminating a number of amenities as well as by using the so-called design-build approach to construction.
But Secretary of Transportation Stephanie Pollack told reporters Monday morning that the T has no experience with the method or with overseeing such a large project and would have to hire as many as 50 people to shepherd the project to completion.
“There is no one at the T right now that could manage this project,” she said.

. . .

Charles Chieppo, a senior fellow at the Pioneer Institute, was a member of the panel that a decade ago helped write the law creating alternative construction methods, including the design-build process. He said that, unlike the traditional design-bid-build process, the builder is in on the design on the ground floor and can adapt as changes are needed.
“The advantages of the design build is that it’s more streamlined, you take out unnecessary steps,” he said. Under the old method, “if you design it, you’re automatically prohibited from building it. That makes no sense. If you design it, you should have something to do with [building] it.”
Chieppo, who was an advisor to then-Gov. Mitt Romney when the law was formed, said the approach is solid but it remains an open question whether the T has the capacity to pull it off. He says he’s not encouraged by the initial effort.

So, a process cooked up by people with direct ties to both Baker's first job in state government and the thinktank he worked for whose ideas he is applying in his current position...is characterized as unmanageable in the hands of the current state government. But we're unilaterally just gonna do it anyway, because the process is good. Not like the design-bid-build process shitcanned last year, which was evil. Those unexplained discrepancies in what numbers got the evil old process smote vs. what we were quoted today for the process that's on the side of the angels? Pay no mind...because good people (who happen to have direct business ties with the Governor) came up with this process, therefore we should trust in its innate goodness. Even though these same exact people with business ties to the Governor think it'll turn out real bad in the hands of the Governor's own people.


The Aristocrats?

 

[whighlander]

I am so dismayed by Pollack it brought me out of just lurking here. Her entire performance today and recent quotes have been unbelievable, given her history of opinions and advocacy.

I'm finding it very hard to find charitable reasons for her 180 degree turn on this.

Arsenal -- Let's start by reading not just the powerpoint slides, but the key aspects of the report [its seems dauntingly long -- but a lot of it is letters and other exhibits and a lot of consultant boilerplate about estimates, and risk

The main takeaway for everyone is that when Stephanie was CLF she could say anything with absolutely no consequences resulting from her statements [that continued when she was at the {surprise Dukakis Center at Northeastern}] -- kinda like a Union Organizer

Now she's part of the Management and responsible for bringing this in on time and budget -- kinda like the Union guy who gets a seat on the Management Finance Committee of the BOD

Also remember that before Charlie was a health insurance CEO -- he was Chief of Administration and Finance for Gov's Weld and then Cellucci

So as Stephanie is Baker's front person in DOT*1 -- she can't afford to make promises about the GLX without knowing that the Feds will allow the revised scope, funding and schedule -- if that is all approved then she has to make it work.

You also have to do a bit of a look-back to see how in the last few hours of his administration Patrick, his DOT Secretary and The T's Peter Principle Boss all tossed everything to the wind just to make sure that the Fed's signature was on the GLX funding and that they could hold a Press Party -- not caring at all apparently how much the project was likely to cost.

Some Relevant History:

In 2014 Euphoria if not Utopia abounded

in an official MBTA Article Dated: 3/5/2014 [my highlights in [bold]]

Green Line Extension Gets Nod from President Obama

BOSTON – President Obama in his budget released yesterday recommended federal funding to support the Green Line Extension (GLX), marking a significant milestone for a project that will bring thousands of new jobs to the region and create new economic opportunity.

The President’s proposal includes $100 million in Federal Fiscal Year 2015 and paves the way for agreement with the federal government for greater support over the next several years.

“I thank President Obama and his Administration for recognizing the critical importance of completing the Green Line Extension,” said Governor Deval Patrick. “This historic commitment of federal New Starts Program funds, when matched with state contributions, will fulfill a promise made during construction of the Central Artery Project and complete the long-awaited extension of rail service to Somerville and Medford.....

Earlier this year, the Patrick Administration requested that the federal government fund 50 percent of the $1.428 billion project.........

“We have been working closely with the Obama Administration on the Green Line Extension and this is an important step forward in securing the federal funding necessary for construction,” stated Congressman Mike Capuano, a member of the House Transportation Committee.....

“The Green Line Extension offers Somerville and the region both economic justice and environmental justice, connecting residents with jobs that pay a livable wage and health care while reducing the number of cars on the road and pollution in the air we all breathe, as well shifting us to a more sustainable mode of transit,” said Mayor Joseph A. Curtatone. “Somerville owes thanks to President Obama and Congressman Michael Capuano for committing in this budget to economic and environmental justice for our residents and to smart, long-term infrastructure investments that will build the 21st century transportation system we need to have a 21st century economy. This commitment needs local, state and federal government working together toward a common goal, and we are fortunate to have our partners in Washington fighting to make the Green Line Extension a reality, along with Gov. Patrick, Sec. Davey, the MassDOT Board of Directors and all our state partners.

Reality hadn't even begun to set in when the back-slapping crowd was leaving the State House without Martha to continue Patrick's policies. So to protect Deval's legacy and perhaps set him up for a VP slot in 2016 they had to get some sort of papers signed -- no matter what it would cost in the end.

BUT the price had already gone from $1.428 in early 2014 to #2.3B in the "Commitment Letter released in early December.

The FTA then estimated that the

total Green Line extension project would cost just under $2.3 billion. After the federal government’s contribution of $996 million of competitive “New Start” grant funds, the remainder of the funding will come from the state.

BUT -- the See / Hear /Smell no evil crowd -- just got together for one more session of the Patrick and Associates mutual admiration society

US pledges nearly $1b for Green Line extension
By Nicole Dungca GLOBE STAFF DECEMBER 02, 2014
The federal government this week pledged nearly $1 billion to help finance the expansion of the Green Line from Cambridge into Somerville and Medford, a major boost for the long-promised transit project....

Stephanie Pollack, the associate director of The Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University, said that if the federal transit agency had refused to endorse the project, the expansion could have been put off even longer as officials sought enough state funding for the entire project — likely by delaying or shelving other plans.

“This marks a huge milestone toward making the Green Line extension a reality and having a substantial federal investment in it,” Pollack said.....

Under the latest timeline, the new Lechmere Station and Union Square and Washington Street stations would be open by 2017, according to MBTA spokesman Joe Pesaturo. The Gilman Square, Lowell Street, Ball Square, and College Avenue stations would be open by 2020, officials said.....

“The project cost is reasonable if the MBTA diligently follows its risk and contingency management plans and procedures,’’ wrote Therese W. McMillan, the acting administrator of the FTA. Analysts had concluded “that the MBTA has the requisite financial capacity to complete this project and continue to operate and maintain the existing system,” McMillan wrote......

Beverly A. Scott, the general manager of the MBTA, called the Green Line extension “one of the best projects” in the country....

*1 Stephanie now has a role much like Charlie had in 1991 when with his relatively new MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management, he became Massachusetts Undersecretary of Health and Human services. You have to do the research to find out how screwed up that part of the State Government had been under Dukakis.

Charlie did well enough that in 1992 he moved up the ladder to Secretary of Health and Human Services of Massachusetts. Later he was rewarded with the challenge but also the plum position of Secretary of Administration and Finance under Weld and continued under Welds successor Paul Cellucci. Baker finally left for the private sector in 1998.

 

[whighlander]

Also. . .

http://commonwealthmagazine.org/transportation/t-takes-risk-with-new-construction-method/

. . .

So, a process cooked up by people with direct ties to both Baker's first job in state government and the thinktank he worked for whose ideas he is applying in his current position...is characterized as unmanageable in the hands of the current state government. But we're unilaterally just gonna do it anyway, because the process is good. Not like the design-bid-build process shitcanned last year, which was evil. Those unexplained discrepancies in what numbers got the evil old process smote vs. what we were quoted today for the process that's on the side of the angels? Pay no mind...because good people (who happen to have direct business ties with the Governor) came up with this process, therefore we should trust in its innate goodness. Even though these same exact people with business ties to the Governor think it'll turn out real bad in the hands of the Governor's own people.


The Aristocrats?

F-Line -- Massport seems to do fine with the process

Perhaps it has to do with the professional mindset of the people running Massport versus the drop-outs from first course in business that Patrick had running the T -- I could say more but someone might associate the next comment with personal and social characteristics of the people involved -- so in the interest of comity on the AB forum -- I'll just add one more word -- Dukakis

By the way -- the price ballooned from $1,4B in the Pres. Obama State of the Union in 2014 -- to $2.3B as Deval was preparing to take the long walk down the State House stairs

However, in reality it probably already was at $2 B in early 2014 circa the President's speech and then only ballooned to the $3B at the end of the Patrick administration -- later chronicaled by the consultants hired by Baker in their report

PS: Baker's first job in the government of Massachusetts was in health care and human services as Ast. Secretary of the Dept of Health and Human Services -- Administration and Finance came a couple of years later

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

[quote="

[/img]"
F-Line --

WHAAAAAAARRRGGGGARRRRBLLLLLLL![/quote]


You were holding that in all day, weren't you?

 

[HenryAlan]

Would it be simple enough to mount a sales tax campaign for rail upgrades and extensions in Eastern Massachusetts with businesses such as GE backing it?

Los Angeles has done huge rail expansion through just such a mechanism.

The Denver region's remarkable effort makes the MBTA's effort look amateurish.

Indeed, and it is incredibly frustrating to see what Denver, L.A., Charlotte, Phoenix, the list goes on, have managed to do in fairly short time. We have a fairly sophisticated system in place, so maybe we lack the sense of urgency required for bold expansion. But the facts on the ground is that the MBTA is tasked with doing more than current infrastructure allows. I would gladly pay more in sales taxes if it funded system expansion.

 

[CSTH]

$700.6 million

That doesn't seem accurate - it has 0 for construction, see footnote.

Also, we need to keep in mind that lechmere is going to have to get rebuilt soon anyway, because it's a shack. I bet the baked-in cost (sunk+inevitable) is already more than 50%.

 

[datadyne007]

That doesn't seem accurate - it has 0 for construction, see footnote.

Also, we need to keep in mind that lechmere is going to have to get rebuilt soon anyway, because it's a shack. I bet the baked-in cost (sunk+inevitable) is already more than 50%.

That $0 is for the new Design-Build ("Construction (D-B Value)"), as the previous project was not Design-Build, so there's no sunk Design-Build costs. At the bottom of the table on Line 6 is a greyed out line for the CM/GC Contracts valued at $203,900,000, which are the sunk construction costs.

 

[ant8904]

Okay now it is time for me to ask a few speculation thoughts.

The good news is the project moves forward. The bad news is the project is being estimated at $2.3 Billion.

And the interesting aspect (and outrageous, but at least it provides hope whereas the alternative either means we got ripped off or somehow it just cost that much more here here than other US projects - much less other first world countries), is the fact this estimate is done using the same flawed cost estimation.

While the fact they use the same assumptions is terrible. At least it better than the initial fear that they somehow defied all our understanding and concluded that the WSK's projections were somehow right. For it means if we can get them to do more than acknowledge the old projections were overpriced, but to actually start calculating and analyzing with inclusion of the real cost, then we might be able to see estimates go down. Minimally, it means that if we going to get a barebones version, then we'll at least be paying a barebones price. Or if we can keep to the same earmarked money and thus re-add some removed features.

The question is first whether my thinking is correct. And if correct, how we do push to get this scenario rather than stripping down till we can get it within our budget and let the contractors run away with proportionally more money for less work.

 

[datadyne007]

Do other systems' expansions (that frequently are used in comparisons) also include the vehicle cost in the project cost? That would knock about $0.2 bil off the cost if you excluded the Type 9s.

 

[JumboBuc]

How much of that $1.3B is already spent?

$700.6 million

So, if I'm getting this right, the project is estimated to cost $2,289 million, of which approximately $701 million has already been spent, $1,000 million is coming from the Feds (contingent on the project finishing), and $75 million is coming from Camberville governments (contingent on the project finishing). As everyone who has ever played poker or taken an intro to economics course should know, sunk costs should not be figured into decision making. Those costs have already been spent regardless of the outcome of the decision, so they don't matter one way or another. That means that the question, as far as the Commonwealth/MBTA is concerned, should come down to this:

Should we spend $513 million new dollars for a seven station, 4.7 mile Green Line extension plus a new maintenance facility or should we walk away?

To me, this seems like a no-brainer. Yes, $2.3 billion is a ridiculous number, but the Commonwealth/MBTA in making their decision should only care about their marginal cost and their marginal benefit. And the marginal cost to the Commonwealth/MBTA in this situation really isn't very large relative to the marginal benefit of the finished extension. Charlie Baker shouldn't care about the $1 billion in federal money, $75 million in municipal money, or $701 million in spent money because he doesn't get to spend those funds on anything else if he cancels the project.

Now, there is also the question of whether the project will actually have a total (not marginal) cost of $2.3 billion, and whether that is an over- or under-estimation, but that is a totally different question.

 

[CSTH]

Should we spend $513 million new dollars for a seven station, 4.7 mile Green Line extension plus a new maintenance facility or should we walk away?

Yes, right on, exactly.

I'd add that the public discussion also needs to acknowledge that capex is not the same as 'spending'. i.e. some portion of that $513 is going to come back to the commonwealth in additional tax revenue, lower road and bus maintenance, etc. This is an investment, not an expense.

And, again, you get to replace this piece of shit in the process..

...for real: the land under the existing lechmere station is worth a sizeable fraction of that $513 on its own.

 

[Equilibria]

Yes, right on, exactly.

I'd add that the public discussion also needs to acknowledge that capex is not the same as 'spending'. i.e. some portion of that $513 is going to come back to the commonwealth in additional tax revenue, lower road and bus maintenance, etc. This is an investment, not an expense.

And, again, you get to replace this piece of shit in the process..

...for real: the land under the existing lechmere station is worth a sizeable fraction of that $513 on its own.

First, the Commonwealth isn't realizing revenue on that property per se - it's been traded to the Northpoint developer in exchange for the land on which the new station sits. It's value is already included in the ROW portion of the budget.

Second, when we get into this sort of discussion, you have to ask whether the most "valuable" parts of the project could be built for much less. If the FTA will let you keep some portion of your Federal grant to do only Lechmere and Union, do you need to go to Tufts, from a system perspective? Tufts itself is served from Davis, and between Davis, Assembly, and Union you'll have provided all three Somerville CBDs with transit service, albeit none of them from Somerville itself. The other 5 stations basically serve as a public subsidy to Somerville landowners and a political gift to Somerville mayors.

I definitely see value in those 5 stations from a commute standpoint, but do they justify themselves in ridership? Probably not. As long as you view the project as an environmental justice obligation or a legal necessity (and therefore a binary yes/no decision), you don't ask those questions, but when you start talking about value-for-the-money, you do.