We discussed this
when you first proposed this idea back in 2021. I understand your logic though, so I'm gonna go through this point by point to do some mythbusting. Don't take this the wrong way -- I'm not trying to be harsh; I want to take seriously the suggestions you're raising and demonstrate why in fact BLX to Lynn would be transformative.
Ultimately, it comes down to shortening the bus routes.
Right now, North Shore bus routes need to run allllllll the way from Lynn into Wonderland in order to connect riders to rapid transit. That stretch is 4.5 miles to Wonderland via Lynnway and 5.5 miles via Salem Turnpike. So, in fact, for everyone south of Beverly, getting to Lynn Central Square is actually only
50% of the way to Wonderland.
A useful comparison is the South Shore before and after the Red Line Extension. IIRC, many of the buses that currently terminate at Quincy Center used to run all the way to Fields Corner, which was, you guessed it, an extra 4 miles of surface travel before you could reach rapid transit.
Very roughly speaking, cutting these bus routes to a Blue Line transfer at Lynn would literally halve their running distance -- which instantly gives you double the frequencies without any increase in rolling stock. (The reality will be messier than this, but the principle is sound.)
Now, I think you are also making an implicit argument about ridership -- suggesting that the majority of North Shore ridership is located north of Lynn. However, I don't think the data bear this out.
Someone (I think it was
@737900er) popped
recent BlueBook ridership data into Tableau to create this map:
As you can see, the Lynn-Wonderland segments see stronger ridership than any other route. The 455, going to Salem via the easterly route, looks like the strongest route north of Lynn, but still sees less than a quarter of the ridership on the two Lynn-Wonderland segments.
This is unsurprising when we look at the frequencies of these routes:
Now, compare that to the routes radiating out from Quincy Center:
Because the routes are shorter, it's feasible to run them at higher frequencies, which is why the North Shore's 455 is currently stuck at 30-min peak headways, while the South Shore's 225 has 15-min peak headways.
And if we look through the ridership profiles for the North Shore routes, we see that ridership is
very heavily tilted toward Lynn, with Salem coming in a strong second. There's clearly demand across the whole region, as you rightly note, but with obstacles like 30-min headways, it's a hard sell for car owners. BLX to Lynn would make those feeder buses a viable alternative to driving.
(And I mean seriously, look at all of these, but in particular check out the 450's demand profile in Lynn -- that's a substantial spike along Western Ave, less than a mile from Lynn Station, but passengers instead are left with a 30-min bus that has to schlep over 5 miles through marshes before a rapid transit transfer becomes available. With BLX, that corridor can become the North Shore's 216 and see a bus every 12 minutes with a quick journey to a rapid transit transfer at Lynn; just like that, your entire commute becomes "show-up-and-go".)
~~~
Now, to be clear, I
do believe the Blue Line should eventually be extended to South Salem. (Salem Station itself is harder -- would love to see it, but it's harder.) But yes, extending further north is clearly worthwhile. But as an immediate political priority, BLX Phase 1 to Lynn should be the focus. Even without further extension, it would have a huge impact by shortening bus routes and increasing their frequencies, and providing a one-seat-ride from Lynn, where we know there is extremely high demand.
), but I'll give my two cents. Somewhere in the Crazy Transit Pitches thread (I'll add a link if I can find it) there was a discussion about Tobin-routed tunneling and possibilities for where it goes once it reaches Boston proper.
