Logan Airport Flights and Airlines Discussion

[kmp1284]

Agreed. For LOT it takes all of Star Alliance, big ethnic population, and big local market to make CHI and NYC work, and there's really no place else for them to go in the US, except, maybe, LAX, or you might have gotten a PHL if it had stayed in Star Alliance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_large_Polish-American_populations

These other recent routes seem to be happening because of connecting opportunities to Asia and Latin America, and BOS may have maxed out for a while.

I was somewhat surprised when I looked up LOT's American destinations that they aren't even at Dulles. They are at Toronto though(another Star hub).

I think the bigger issue is going to be retaining all of the European carriers we have now. I'm not concerned so much with the major players - BA, Lufthansa, Air France, Aer Lingus, Virgin, KLM(dba Delta) but rather Alitalia and Iberia. Even though they do a lot of business in the Boston-Israel market which may go to Turkish, I think Swiss will be fine.

What are the PPD numbers for South American markets? Sao Paulo, Rio, and Buenos Aires are the biggest markets, but there's very little hub potential there.

I'm not going to dig up every South American market but here are the ones you asked about, plus a surprise contender:

Sao Paulo - 51 PDEW
Belo Horizonte - 31
Rio - 23
Buenos Aires - 22

Between Miami, Kennedy, Houston and now Panama City, South America is appropriately covered.

Also to clarify, the number I used for Warsaw was passengers per day, both ways. PDEW is 19.xyz

 

[Tombstoner]

I'm not going to dig up every South American market but here are the ones you asked about, plus a surprise contender:

Sao Paulo - 51 PDEW
Belo Horizonte - 31
Rio - 23
Buenos Aires - 22

Belo Horizonte makes sense--most Brazilians in the Greater Boston area that I've met (including my girlfriend) are from Minas Gerais.

 

[adamh8297]

Interesting intro fares on the BOS-PEK flights for July

$1100 - Coach (not super low but still reasonably priced)
$3856 - Business (lower than I expected)

Though about same distance but a different market - BOS-NRT is $1800 and $5400 at their cheapest for coach and business class respectively.

 

[kmp1284]

Regarding the J fare, it's not Hong Kong or Shanghai.

 

[omaja]

I think the bigger issue is going to be retaining all of the European carriers we have now. I'm not concerned so much with the major players - BA, Lufthansa, Air France, Aer Lingus, Virgin, KLM(dba Delta) but rather Alitalia and Iberia. Even though they do a lot of business in the Boston-Israel market which may go to Turkish, I think Swiss will be fine.

Alitalia has severe systemic issues with its route network, labor relations and expenses, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they were forced to chop BOS. They wouldn't be doing so for lack of a BOS-Italy market, though, but rather their own incompetency. If Italy weren't such a large an important market in Europe, I could see them disappearing entirely. Fortunately for BOS there's probably a lot more low-hanging fruit in Alitalia's longhaul network that would disappear before FCO-BOS, if the need arises (looking specifically at LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD, ORD in the US).

Iberia's problems are twofold: lingering effects of the recession in Spain and lack of suitable aircraft. The first will hopefully continue to improve over time. To fix the second they either need to acquire new planes (A340s are just way too much plane for BOS-MAD outside of peak summer season) or rely on joint-venture partner American to fly the route with an international 757.

I'd say you're right about Swiss. Between the local financial/pharma/biotech/R&D traffic and plenty of connections, Zurich basically rounds out Lufthansa's Central European trifecta along with Frankfurt and Munich.

I'm not going to dig up every South American market but here are the ones you asked about, plus a surprise contender:

Sao Paulo - 51 PDEW
Belo Horizonte - 31
Rio - 23
Buenos Aires - 22

Between Miami, Kennedy, Houston and now Panama City, South America is appropriately covered.

I hope you're using the term "contender" very loosely. The only real contender for non-stop service to BOS would be Sao Paulo. But even then that's a no-go because Guarulhos is a restricted airport and, as you mentioned, there's a plethora of places for one-stop connections (I'd add Atlanta, Dallas, Charlotte and Dulles to round out your list). All the other cities are just too small and most likely not high-yielding enough given the stage length of a non-stop flight to deep South America.

 

[whighlander]

I would not count on Warsaw happening within my lifetime, let alone in five years. LOT only serves New York and Chicago and no American carrier serves Poland. Currently, the market is around 40 passengers per day and Warsaw offers nothing that differentiates it from the other European hubs that Boston has service to. In fact, aside from Shannon(which is more O&D) it would be the smallest by a huge margin. Even assuming the market was to grow at a rate of 20% per year over five years, it would still not be viable for more reasons than I care to list. Not that it has a chance either but Moscow would have been the more logical argument.

kmp -- you don't seem understand the difference -- Warsaw is EU and is rapidly becoming a major EU land transit cross hub with Interstate=type roads and major rails crossing just west of the city

Warsaw also offers easy 2 stop access to the Baltic region with minimal customs

Because of the big gap between the EU and Russia Moscow is always going to be secondary

By the way -- I seem to remember someone saying after the Tokyo flights were anniounced that when I suggested Beijing or Honkong -- that BOS - PEK wasn't likely in their lifetime --- just commenting

 

[adamh8297]

kmp -- you don't seem understand the difference -- Warsaw is EU and is rapidly becoming a major EU land transit cross hub with Interstate=type roads and major rails crossing just west of the city

Warsaw also offers easy 2 stop access to the Baltic region with minimal customs

Because of the big gap between the EU and Russia Moscow is always going to be secondary

By the way -- I seem to remember someone saying after the Tokyo flights were anniounced that when I suggested Beijing or Honkong -- that BOS - PEK wasn't likely in their lifetime --- just commenting

I think what you mentioned above affects EU internal logisitics more than Transatlantic air travel.

Things to think about

-What does LOT offer that Lufthansa doesn't? I checked quickly and it may be 1-2 odd routes in Poland.

-As kmp pointed out the Boston-Warsaw Market is small. LAX/SFO/MIA/WAS are also of a similar size. Chicago and NYC are the only markets that could support this service.

-Boston-Warsaw also decreased from 2003-2011.

Anyone who didn't think a Boston-Beijing flight was possible doesn't have a clue about the global economy and Boston's role in it.

One airline we may want to keep an eye on is Norwegian Air. With their recently leased 787's they have begun transatlantic flights. Right now they are sticking to NYC, South Florida, and LA for the most part. They are opening up bases outside of Scandinavia: notably Madrid, London-Gatwick, and possibly Barcelona.

It wouldn't surprise me if they threw out a 3-4 weekly seasonal Copenhagen/Barcelona/Stockholm/London-Gatwick flight to Boston in 2015

 

[choo]

If Alitalia and Iberia have to back out of Madrid and Rome for internal reasons, is it possible for someone like American or Delta to pick up that slack? That's probably neither of the Euro's preferences but it would be a shame if Boston ever lost non-stop to two major southern European markets.

 

[adamh8297]

If Alitalia and Iberia have to back out of Madrid and Rome for internal reasons, is it possible for someone like American or Delta to pick up that slack? That's probably neither of the Euro's preferences but it would be a shame if Boston ever lost non-stop to two major southern European markets.

I could see AA taking over Madrid with a International 757.

DL could easily try Rome as well though I strongly believe they would make it seasonal if Alitalia were to pull out of Boston.

 

[mass88]

If Alitalia and Iberia have to back out of Madrid and Rome for internal reasons, is it possible for someone like American or Delta to pick up that slack? That's probably neither of the Euro's preferences but it would be a shame if Boston ever lost non-stop to two major southern European markets.

Madrid could probably be a pretty solid AA 752 route.

 

[omaja]

I could see AA taking over Madrid with a International 757.

DL could easily try Rome as well though I strongly believe they would make it seasonal if Alitalia were to pull out of Boston.

Completely agreed. With the transatlantic joint venture agreement between AA-BA-IB, BOS-MAD makes the most sense on AA's 757s. Likewise, I could see BOS-FCO moving to a seasonal DL 757 service as part of the DL-AF-KL-AZ joint venture. The problem with BOS-Southern Europe is that it tends to be low yielding and highly seasonal; on top of it all, Madrid and Rome are less than ideal locations for hubs connecting to Northern and Central Europe.

My completely uneducated guess is most of the BOS-MAD/FCO travel tends to be BOS point-of-sale so Delta and American service on those routes would do quite well in that regard with the right sized aircraft and the well-established brands.

 

[mass88]

Completely agreed. With the transatlantic joint venture agreement between AA-BA-IB, BOS-MAD makes the most sense on AA's 757s. Likewise, I could see BOS-FCO moving to a seasonal DL 757 service as part of the DL-AF-KL-AZ joint venture. The problem with BOS-Southern Europe is that it tends to be low yielding and highly seasonal; on top of it all, Madrid and Rome are less than ideal locations for hubs connecting to Northern and Central Europe.

My completely uneducated guess is most of the BOS-MAD/FCO travel tends to be BOS point-of-sale so Delta and American service on those routes would do quite well in that regard with the right sized aircraft and the well-established brands.

Madrid is a great location to connect to Africa and Iberia has a pretty good network.

 

[adamh8297]

Madrid and Rome are less than ideal locations for hubs connecting to Northern and Central Europe.

You are correct but does the average summer traveler really care? Most routes only add another hour of flying (example: Warsaw or Prague) and if your connection is smooth in Madrid it probably makes up for it.

I've already heard of people flying into Rome via Istanbul and I've heard Houston's Istanbul flights are even generating Western Europe business traffic. Boston's business traffic may be different due to its proximity to Western Europe where one may expect to have total travel time no more than 9-10 hours.

 

[Lrfox]

Deleted post. Wrong thread.

 

[Oakley]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business...top-service/Uc9IAUixNgOZBUAmXmQ1nM/story.html

Yay! What is the quality of their service? Can they compete with Cathay, Pacific, Korean, Singapore, Emirates, ect.? Are they in an alliance?

I was somewhat surprised when I looked up LOT's American destinations that they aren't even at Dulles. They are at Toronto though(another Star hub).

I think the bigger issue is going to be retaining all of the European carriers we have now. I'm not concerned so much with the major players - BA, Lufthansa, Air France, Aer Lingus, Virgin, KLM(dba Delta) but rather Alitalia and Iberia. Even though they do a lot of business in the Boston-Israel market which may go to Turkish, I think Swiss will be fine.

fly the route with an international 757.

I'd say you're right about Swiss. Between the local financial/pharma/biotech/R&D traffic and plenty of connections, Zurich basically rounds out Lufthansa's Central European trifecta along with Frankfurt and Munich.

I agree about Swiss. Seems like it's a financially profitable route due to business connections/travel that are the strengths of both the Boston area and Zurich/Swiss economies-biotech/pharma/R&D/financial/tech. I imagine the connecting traffic is just icing on the cake.

Aren't their rumors of Brussels?

 

[adamh8297]

Yay! What is the quality of their service? Can they compete with Cathay, Pacific, Korean, Singapore, Emirates, ect.? Are they in an alliance?

"They are China's only 5 star airline as rated by Skytrax." I put this in quotes since Skytrax ratings are a bit strange.


Hainan is not in an alliance.

They could join OneWorld since they have a full partnership with airBerlin and , more importantly for this route, they have been codesharing with American Airlines. Hopefully the codeshare will happen on this route. With a merged US/AA you can have connections to East Coast destinations of BUF ROC RIC PIT MIA CLT PHL JFK/LGA DCA SYR and MDT.

The other option is most likely some tie-up with JetBlue.

Aren't their rumors of Brussels?

Brussels Airlines recently begun transatlantic in 2012 with JFK and 2013 with IAD (5 weekly). There was some chatter on Boston at some point and it definitely wouldn't surprise me if they come to BOS with seasonal or 4 weeklies. The airline does offer some unique African connections that are only rivaled by Turkish Airlines.

 

[kmp1284]

Brussels Airlines recently begun transatlantic in 2012 with JFK and 2013 with IAD (5 weekly). There was some chatter on Boston at some point and it definitely wouldn't surprise me if they come to BOS with seasonal or 4 weeklies. The airline does offer some unique African connections that are only rivaled by Turkish Airlines.

I think they'd go for San Francisco and/or Miami first being larger markets to Brussels(and in the case of San Francisco, a Star hub).

 

[omaja]

Madrid is a great location to connect to Africa and Iberia has a pretty good network.

Madrid is a great location for USA-Africa and Iberia does have a somewhat decent network, but I suppose it goes without saying that it pales in comparison to what Air France-KLM offers from Paris and Amsterdam or even what British Airways offers from London.

You are correct but does the average summer traveler really care? Most routes only add another hour of flying (example: Warsaw or Prague) and if your connection is smooth in Madrid it probably makes up for it.

I've already heard of people flying into Rome via Istanbul and I've heard Houston's Istanbul flights are even generating Western Europe business traffic. Boston's business traffic may be different due to its proximity to Western Europe where one may expect to have total travel time no more than 9-10 hours.

No, I suppose the average summer traveler definitely wouldn't care. But that's probably a moot point since I don't think either carrier is hunting for those connections, given that their joint venture partners can more efficiently and profitably carry the traffic over the Atlantic via hubs in AMS/CDG/JFK and LHR.

I could see Turkish doing alright with connections to cities in the central/eastern Mediterranean region like Rome, Athens, etc., but that's probably about as useful as Istanbul is for Europe. Any additional backtracking northward or eastward would add about 40 percent the traveling distance.

I think they'd go for San Francisco and/or Miami first being larger markets to Brussels(and in the case of San Francisco, a Star hub).

Interestingly enough, Brussels' predecessor never flew to San Francisco or Miami. I'd put my money on Boston happening before since it's a shorter stage length and most likely higher-yielding.

 

[kmp1284]

Interestingly enough, Brussels' predecessor never flew to San Francisco or Miami. I'd put my money on Boston happening before since it's a shorter stage length and most likely higher-yielding.

If the markets were remotely comparable in size I would be inclined to agree with you but they're not. What makes you think that Boston would be higher-yielding?

 

[adamh8297]

If the markets were remotely comparable in size I would be inclined to agree with you but they're not. What makes you think that Boston would be higher-yielding?

The only issue I see with San Fran would be the stage length tying a plane up for the day. They only have 8 wide-body planes with 1 on order right now. This may prevent a quick run to Africa whose routes can have astronomical yields which could be the same reason for not starting any transatlantic route for this particular airline. I also wonder if United would be better serving the route with a 787: 50-70 less seats than either of Brussels A330's. They could drop their Dulles flight as well to free up a plane. Airlines have a finance department to figure these items out and can forecast a bit so we may not see any additional USA service until 2015 if at all.


JetAirFly, a charter airline, is starting Brussels-Miami in 2014 so I would rule South Florida out.