MBTA Commuter Rail (Operations, Keolis, & Short Term)

In this context, what do you classify as “soft costs”?
Contractors managing contractors managing design and build. They're getting absolutely killed by professional services fees on station design, construction and renovation because the in-house project management expertise is completely gone, and instead of seeking efficiencies (like wadding up similar-design station renos into contract bundles) they're mounting each of these instances as slovenly, larded-up discrete projects that get completely bogged down at the starting gates. It doesn't help that permitting is a bitch and that accessibility regs end up being a big source of cost bloat on the actual designs, but instead of looking at their daunting backlog of non-accessible stations and determining "we need to step it up internally with the oversight if we're going to survive this" they're just outsourcing ever more aggressively and throwing up the white flag (or cutting off one's nose to save face with these dwell-and-schedule killing shortie platforms) when costs sail to absurdity and/or the designs flat-out don't work. I mean, we're not even blinking anymore at stops like South Attleboro--with pre-existing and to-be-unchanged parking lots and site access--costing $30M more in partial renovation than it cost RIDOT to site and build all-new Pawtucket/Central Falls completely from scratch.

It's not like they're just getting started on Waverley, either. We were talking almost 10 years ago on aB about the last bullshit design renders presented for ADA'ing the station, which included an absolutely ludicrous number of long switchback ramps at the tail ends of the station because they absolutely refused to consider a simple central elevator to the Square. It was so Rube Goldberg-esque that it basically made a complete mockery of the ADA in spirit while still conforming to the letter of the law, and the community hated it. The T turtled under and did nothing for a full decade, but it's already racked up sunk professional services costs on this reno through lack of oversight.

This isn't sustainable. Something big has to change in the way they approach these projects.
 
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Mini-high platform installation at West Medford station Sunday. I’ll try to get better photos later this week.
When “later this week” turns into over a month later. West Medford station. All photos looking north. Much more progress on what is typically the inbound track vs the outbound track.

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My understanding is that expanding in-house project management and design is something that Eng is pushing alongside more in-house capacity in general. Admittedly what I've heard is so far is that available in house capacity has largely been very maintenance / TIP / SoGR focused rather than capital, but once it's there you might as well use it elsewhere. There's apparently a bevy of new construction/ engineering management roles being created, and my understanding is that despite the long list of upcoming professional services contracts, under Eng basically none have actually been awarded. That said, it's probably always going to be the case that there will be consultants involved, especially for the specialized details like code and environmental, where a 3rd party makes sense. That's often why you use a consultant in the private sector - specialist knowledge you use infrequently. Other times it's so you can point at their report and say "the independent expert agrees it's a good idea" to the board, or as a liability shield - you point at their stamp on the drawings if anything goes wrong.
 
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So in general, what do we think about the Ts current apparent plan to reconfigure the CR contract? The presentation today pretty clearly favors option 3, where the T would hand over buying new trains and electrifying the system to private parties - most of the respondents to the RFI were from investment firms, which would pick up the capital bill for buying new trains / electrification work in exchange for a long-term contract and fixed payments. It would take the capital cost of new trains and electrifying the system out of the CIP, which may be necessary given the size of the lift, and is frankly the path the T is already walking with the Keolis Fairmont pilot.
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Also, Keolis has new tentative agreements with 9 of it's unions - hopefully, that goes some way towards resolving some of the crew availability issues the CR system has been seeing.
 

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Under option 3 the T would own the ROW and define the schedules, but otherwise reduce their involvement to writing a set of checks?
 
Looking for a bit of a history lesson here. South Coast Rail has become (very visibly) a long expensive project. Was the same true for previous recent commuter rail expansions? I recall Greenbush going through some birthing pains and delays, but in general it seems like Old Colony Restoration was not nearly as painful, nor the extension to Newburyport. On the other hand, it does seem like the kind of thing that might fade from collective memory over the course of a couple of decades. And I myself was, you know, quite young at the time, so it's not like I would remember it firsthand.
 
Checking NHRHTA Shoreliner Vol. 27 Issue 3, published about the time the Old Colony Middleborough/Lakeville and Kingston/Plymouth lines were opened, the stated cost was $537 million for the two branches and the Braintree - South Boston trunk. What did that buy? Among other things, a new, two-track bridge over the Neponset River (and several smaller bridges), sixteen full length high level platform commuter rail stations (many with expansive parking lots), a branch from the existing New Haven right-of-way in Kingston to a new station via a new tunnel under Route 3, and two layover yards.

I don't know how much the Greenbush line cost, which opened in 2007. The 1997 estimate was $300 million, for seven full length high level platform commuter rail stations and a layover yard. That 1997 estimate was possibly before the Hingham Square tunnel was added to the project plan.

Compare the costs and results for Middleborough/Lakeville and Kingston/Plymouth with South Coast Rail phase 1. SCR phase 1 does not have a major rail bridge like the Old Colony trunk over the Neponset. SCR phase 1 has eight new full length high level platform commuter rail stations (one replacing the Middleborough/Lakeville station) and two new layover yards.

I don't have handy the mileage of new track required Middleborough/Lakeville and Kingston/Plymouth, versus SCR phase 1. Not do I have details on the Newburyport extension. Hopefully others can provide those details.
 
Checking NHRHTA Shoreliner Vol. 27 Issue 3, published about the time the Old Colony Middleborough/Lakeville and Kingston/Plymouth lines were opened, the stated cost was $537 million for the two branches and the Braintree - South Boston trunk. What did that buy? Among other things, a new, two-track bridge over the Neponset River (and several smaller bridges), sixteen full length high level platform commuter rail stations (many with expansive parking lots), a branch from the existing New Haven right-of-way in Kingston to a new station via a new tunnel under Route 3, and two layover yards.

I don't know how much the Greenbush line cost, which opened in 2007. The 1997 estimate was $300 million, for seven full length high level platform commuter rail stations and a layover yard. That 1997 estimate was possibly before the Hingham Square tunnel was added to the project plan.

Compare the costs and results for Middleborough/Lakeville and Kingston/Plymouth with South Coast Rail phase 1. SCR phase 1 does not have a major rail bridge like the Old Colony trunk over the Neponset. SCR phase 1 has eight new full length high level platform commuter rail stations (one replacing the Middleborough/Lakeville station) and two new layover yards.

I don't have handy the mileage of new track required Middleborough/Lakeville and Kingston/Plymouth, versus SCR phase 1. Not do I have details on the Newburyport extension. Hopefully others can provide those details.
Greenbush cost $534M dollars. Assuming 2003 dollars, (rough start of construction) per the BLS CPI inflation calculator that's ~$917M in Dec 2024 dollars. For Middleborough/Kingston lines, assuming 1993 dollars, those lines cost ~1.17B.
Since we know there's been significant inflation in recent years, SCR phase 1 cost $1.047 billion in 2019 - that's $1.289B today.
 
I can’t find the exact cost, but the 1994 PMT listed the Newburyport extension at 42.8M, 93.4M today (somehow).
 
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Newburyport was a different animal - 9 miles of single track, two basic stations, and a badly-needed 4-track layover yard. The line was recently abandoned, so no freight to work around but no legal issues with property lines etc.
 
So what I'm hearing is that, at least in terms of the OCR projects, which do seem broadly comparable, SCR is coming in a bit more expensive than Middleboro/Kingston, at $1.3B for 35 miles, versus $1.2B for ~50 miles. But hardly an order of magnitude difference -- something like $25M per mile vs $35M per mile?
 
So what I'm hearing is that, at least in terms of the OCR projects, which do seem broadly comparable, SCR is coming in a bit more expensive than Middleboro/Kingston, at $1.3B for 35 miles, versus $1.2B for ~50 miles. But hardly an order of magnitude difference -- something like $25M per mile vs $35M per mile?
Context is key. Greenbush was all-abandoned east of East Braintree and had the tunnel. Plymouth was long out-of-service south of Abington, in minimal operating Class 1 condition otherwise, had the system's highest concentration of grade crossings, and had the new branchlet with tunnel. Middleboro was *fair* condition Class 2 but the mainline had that new maximally tall Neponset bridge to grade and build. There were a ton of stations, including structurally invasive ones like Quincy Center.

SCR was on all good-condition all-active Class 2 freight track, few overall bridges and no major ones, not many grade crossings and not nearly as decrepit/inadequate crossings, and only 6 all open-air stations. On comparative scope-of-work the cost inflation was pretty severe.
 
Agreed. Boosting frequencies while decreasing trainset lengths doesn’t suggest they’ll be moving substantially more people along the corridor each day, so this isn’t addressing future capacity needs. Hopefully they at least leave space for future platform lengthening in the station designs.
A five Kcar consist can hold 940 seated passengers.peak 15 minute service means nearly 4000 pph. That's just Framingham local service. Add 30 minute Worcester semi express full length set and you're looking at another 3600pph.
 
Was looking through Wikipedia trying to find ridership info, and noticed proposed South Salem had its own page now. Says the design was supposed to be done last month. Whats the current status on that?
 
Was looking through Wikipedia trying to find ridership info, and noticed proposed South Salem had its own page now. Says the design was supposed to be done last month. Whats the current status on that?
No further info beyond the June public meeting presentation which concluded AECOM would have the final design and cost submitted Nov 2024. Interestingly someone put a marker for the proposed Regional Rail maintenance facility on Google Maps
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No further info beyond the June public meeting presentation which concluded AECOM would have the final design and cost submitted Nov 2024. Interestingly someone put a marker for the proposed Regional Rail maintenance facility on Google Maps
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The maint facility was very briefly covered in the June public presentation for the new station.
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Basically, the T already owns ex- Castle Hill freight yard, doesn't own any other suitable sites, and would have an uphill battle against the NIMBY's with any other sites so they're defaulting to here. Which doesn't mean there won't be NIMBY's here, too...pretty much any rail yard will draw them out in force. It doesn't seem as though it's very far along in planning, though. BEMU's haven't been formally committed yet to Rockburyport or anywhere else on the northside, so it doesn't really have a reason to exist until they get as far as an ironclad commitment.
 
The maint facility was very briefly covered in the June public presentation for the new station.
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Basically, the T already owns ex- Castle Hill freight yard, doesn't own any other suitable sites, and would have an uphill battle against the NIMBY's with any other sites so they're defaulting to here. Which doesn't mean there won't be NIMBY's here, too...pretty much any rail yard will draw them out in force. It doesn't seem as though it's very far along in planning, though. BEMU's haven't been formally committed yet to Rockburyport or anywhere else on the northside, so it doesn't really have a reason to exist until they get as far as an ironclad commitment.
Building a south Salem station with it would probably be a good way to placate the neighborhood. Would trains in this yard be expected to make a reverse move down the single track tunnel to begin service, or just skip the Salem stations for short turns?
 
Building a south Salem station with it would probably be a good way to placate the neighborhood. Would trains in this yard be expected to make a reverse move down the single track tunnel to begin service, or just skip the Salem stations for short turns?
No idea. They aren't clear on exactly what dense service is going to look like, and how it's going to interact with regular Rockburyport thru service. The Rail Vision seems to think there's going to be a lot of Beverly short-turns in the mix, but I don't see how that's going to be true if :30 Newburyport local + :30 Rockport local service = :15 mainline local service. Mid-line probably isn't the most ideal spot for a BEMU maint facility if most service is going to run thru, but again they're very limited on northside properties that they own and control and have an upper-hand on fighting off the NIMBY's so beggars can't be choosers.

The South Salem station does make a lot of sense for timing denser meets on the single-track tunnel without needing to immediately double up the single Salem Station platform. You can use the South Salem station dwell as a very effective precision timing mechanism around the tunnel without screwing up schedules. Much better accuracy than trying to time everything perfectly out of Swampscott.
 

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