MBTA "Transformation" (Green Line, Red Line, & Orange Line Transformation Projects)

[mass88]

MBTA to close part of Orange Line this weekend to work on slow zones - The Boston Globe

At least three of the six slow zones that the MBTA said it eliminated after the shutdown still had speed restrictions in place as of Jan. 4, according to an internal log obtained by the Globe.

www.bostonglobe.com

Slightly clickbait title, but the more public pressure/ awareness the better.

Slightly click bait or not - the MBTA should not be giving any reasons for such articles to be written. Another management failure that is only going to further erode the public's trust and lead more people to avoid using the T.

 

[Brattle Loop]

Slightly click bait or not - the MBTA should not be giving any reasons for such articles to be written. Another management failure that is only going to further erode the public's trust and lead more people to avoid using the T.

Absolutely. I don't think it's clickbait so much as annoyed snark, but either way, the T's own failure to communicate properly is directly responsible for articles like this. The best-case scenario is that they are staggeringly (if not surprisingly) incompetent to the point of either not being able to effectively communicate the operational realities to the PR/media people about what the shutdown was and wasn't going to do, or not understanding that themselves. Worst-case scenario is that they outright lied to the public and press to get them off their backs. No matter what it is, it's completely on them. I can understand why they might not want to have to say "we're closing the line, and it's still going to be kinda crud afterwards", but that would at least have had the benefit of being true. Lacking in the spine to deal with the unpleasant reality of a rotted-through agency is still a management failure in the end.

 

[Highwayguy]

Slightly click bait or not - the MBTA should not be giving any reasons for such articles to be written. Another management failure that is only going to further erode the public's trust and lead more people to avoid using the T.

Thanks for saying that better than I. The stuff not related to this week’s shutdown was actually the most damning. I assume everyone here already knew about all of the individual things listed, but seeing it all in one place reinforces how the T is at/ near a 2015 level of crisis once again, and this time there isn’t even a once in a generation weather event to blame.
What l meant by slightly click bait was the title implied the shutdown was only for repair of the slowzones, not the garage demolition. l would be upset if the T didn’t use a ‘free’ weekend shutdown to get more work done. The more press pressure the T gets for its state right now is good though. l think the only way the T gets the wholesale culture change it needs to function is when it becomes becomes a capital P Political issue (Andy Byford when??).

 

[Teban54]

Here's the internal slow zone log referenced in the article:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618374834723098631

 

[Delvin4519]

Here's the internal slow zone log referenced in the article:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618374834723098631

There are 4 slow zones on the NB side of the Orange Line, but only 1 appears on TransitMatters. A 75% false negative rate, catching only 25% of the current slow zones.
There are 8 slow zones on the SB side of the Orange Line, but only 2 appear on TransitMatters. A 75% false negative rate, catching only 25% of the current slow zones.
There are 7 slow zones on the NB side of the Red Line, but only 6 appear on TransitMatters. 14% false negative rate, currently catching 86% of the current slow zones.
There are 13 slow zones on the SB side of the Red Line, but only 11 appear on TransitMatters. 18% false negative rate, currently catching 82% of the current slow zones.

The Orange Line is much slower than TransitMatters shows, with 3/4s of the slow zones currently hidden and not appearing on TransitMatters.

The formula TransitMatters uses is shown below:

There has to be a better way to calculate slow zones.

It should be based on the most common lowest value observed the the fastest 90% or 95% of trips.

If the median value is being used, that assumes that slow zones exist less than 50% of the time since 2016. I think that's not a very good formula at all. If a slow zone has existed for more than 4 years in the past 7 years, it won't show up on TransitMatters. The fact that 75% of the Orange Line slow zones are being missed, is pretty distrubing, even though we are lucky to even have TransitMatters trying to calculate how much slow zones are there close to realtime.

Here's a graph showing a potential travel time, where full speed has only operated much less than 50% of the observed dataset. The actual slow zones, based on the fastest 5% of trips, will be easy to locate. Whether the calculation should be based on the fastest 5%, fastest 10%, or the fastest 180 days, the exact way, is another question. But the median value isn't a good representation. Obviosuly the data is probably more messy, but it could be based on 7 day rolling average and then taking the fastest 6 weeks of that set.

 

[sneijder]

There are 4 slow zones on the NB side of the Orange Line, but only 1 appears on TransitMatters. A 75% false negative rate, catching only 25% of the current slow zones.
There are 8 slow zones on the SB side of the Orange Line, but only 2 appear on TransitMatters. A 75% false negative rate, catching only 25% of the current slow zones.
There are 7 slow zones on the NB side of the Red Line, but only 6 appear on TransitMatters. 14% false negative rate, currently catching 86% of the current slow zones.
There are 13 slow zones on the SB side of the Red Line, but only 11 appear on TransitMatters. 18% false negative rate, currently catching 84% of the current slow zones.

The Orange Line is much slower than TransitMatters shows, with 3/4s of the slow zones currently hidden and not appearing on TransitMatters.

The formula TransitMatters uses is shown below:

View attachment 33459

View attachment 33457View attachment 33458


There has to be a better way to calculate slow zones.

It should be based on the most common lowest value observed the the fastest 90% or 95% of trips.

If the median value is being used, that assumes that slow zones exist less than 50% of the time since 2016. I think that's not a very good formula at all. If a slow zone has existed for more than 4 years in the past 7 years, it won't show up on TransitMatters. The fact that 75% of the Orange Line slow zones are being missed, is pretty distrubing, even though we are lucky to even have TransitMatters trying to calculate how much slow zones are there close to realtime.

Here's a graph showing a potential travel time, where full speed has only operated much less than 50% of the observed dataset. The actual slow zones, based on the fastest 5% of trips, will be easy to locate. Whether the calculation should be based on the fastest 5%, fastest 10%, or the fastest 180 days, the exact way, is another question. But the median value isn't a good representation. Obviosuly the data is probably more messy, but it could be based on 7 day rolling average and then taking the fastest 6 weeks of that set.

View attachment 33460

I think when the original model was designed there was an assumption that Red/Orange wouldn't be in such a dire state such that these slow zones would last months or years..

This level of transparency is pretty transformative both from the twitter post and the TransitMatters dashboard. Back in 2018, a transit nerd like me would notice 10mph zones from my daily ride, but had no way to see them verified on paper.

Anyone have a good guess why the repairs keep getting punted? Is it lack of raw materials or construction staff, or an issue of funding?

 

[Delvin4519]

I think when the original model was designed there was an assumption that Red/Orange wouldn't be in such a dire state such that these slow zones would last months or years..

This level of transparency is pretty transformative both from the twitter post and the TransitMatters dashboard. Back in 2018, a transit nerd like me would notice 10mph zones from my daily ride, but had no way to see them verified on paper.

Anyone have a good guess why the repairs keep getting punted? Is it lack of raw materials or construction staff, or an issue of funding?

It might be from a lack of funding and staff, or some combination of the two.

The TransitMatters slow zone tracker came about around the time the FTA was doing their investigation into the MBTA's safety practices. TransitMatters has data back to 2016, and the FTA called out a section of very worn out and deteriorated track that had been in place in 2019. Already, this should've raised a bell that using a median value to calculate the TransitMatters Slow Zone dashboard was going to miss the slow zones that existed at Back Bay, and that a new formula to re-calculate the baseline travel is necessary then, and more so now, to even try to gauge how many slow zones are there.

I'd think that the Red Line might be approaching 25 minutes of total delay from slow zones, or even surpassed 25 minutes already. However, given the use of a median value to calculate slow zones on the TransitMatters dashboard, only 21 minutes appears on their dashboard at this time.

Is there a way for someone to reach out to TransitMatters, and get them to try to develop a new formula to calculate the baseline travel time/speeds and better catch much the false negative slow zones that exist out there right now? While it might not be able to catch 100% of slow zones, I still think it's worthy for a new slow zone calculation formula to reduce the false negative rate for slow zones, it is probably possible to cut the false negative rate by at least half, especially for the Orange Line.

 

[Codman89]

I think the TM Dashboard has been hugely helpful in adding transparency to the slow zone issue. Is the method of calculation perfect? No. Does their dashboard help communicate a relatively nuanced issue to a wide audience? Absolutely! When the Globe is citing your data, and using it to hold the T accountable, that's effective advocacy.

This level of transparency is pretty transformative both from the twitter post and the TransitMatters dashboard. Back in 2018, a transit nerd like me would notice 10mph zones from my daily ride, but had no way to see them verified on paper.

While this may be so, I think we should be aiming higher for the T. Scroll down to the PDFs at the bottom of this page: https://www.transitchicago.com/sze/ That's the level of detail I'd like to see us aspire to with these persistent slow zone issues. You can see (generally) what the issue is, what length of track is affected, how slow the restriction is, and (by reviewing older PDFs) how long the restriction has been in place.

 

[Delvin4519]

I think the TM Dashboard has been hugely helpful in adding transparency to the slow zone issue. Is the method of calculation perfect? No. Does their dashboard help communicate a relatively nuanced issue to a wide audience? Absolutely! When the Globe is citing your data, and using it to hold the T accountable, that's effective advocacy.


While this may be so, I think we should be aiming higher for the T. Scroll down to the PDFs at the bottom of this page: https://www.transitchicago.com/sze/ That's the level of detail I'd like to see us aspire to with these persistent slow zone issues. You can see (generally) what the issue is, what length of track is affected, how slow the restriction is, and (by reviewing older PDFs) how long the restriction has been in place.

Yea. While I am critical of the calculation methodology used, given the track conditions, especially for the Orange Line. The fact that 85% of the slow zones on the Red Line are being caught right now by TransitMatters, and being reported as such, is already impressive in of itself, and very, very, very, important especially from the lack of transparancy and timely and comprehesive reporting from the MBTA directly.

I do agree that we should be aiming higher, including having that improved methodology for catching remaining slow zones, (OL esp.), and having that more complete results to hold the MBTA more accountable.

The Chicago Slow Zones map is pretty good and a very useful asset and level of transparancy for riders.

 

[Jahvon09]

Here it is, January, 2023. The Orange line was shut down last summer for a month. It was promised that those slow zones would be gone not too long after the line was reopened, & they are STILL there! This is so ridiculous to have this crap still going on.

 

[Highwayguy]

The Dashboard is a great resource and l cannot commend Transit Matters enough for making it. Now that they have been raising awareness and trying to calculate it themselves for years, its well past the time when the T should have made the leaked data in that tweet publicly available. Transit Matters can then use that to make a pretty (and 100% accurate) UI for public consumption. Seems a lot easier for them. No guesswork from what formula or baseline or whatever involved.
Now that l think of it, TM must have asked for those excel files, right?

 

[737900er]

I think the TM Dashboard has been hugely helpful in adding transparency to the slow zone issue. Is the method of calculation perfect? No. Does their dashboard help communicate a relatively nuanced issue to a wide audience? Absolutely! When the Globe is citing your data, and using it to hold the T accountable, that's effective advocacy.


While this may be so, I think we should be aiming higher for the T. Scroll down to the PDFs at the bottom of this page: https://www.transitchicago.com/sze/ That's the level of detail I'd like to see us aspire to with these persistent slow zone issues. You can see (generally) what the issue is, what length of track is affected, how slow the restriction is, and (by reviewing older PDFs) how long the restriction has been in place.

They obviously have it in their internal Tableau Dashboards, and they do publish some stuff to their Tableau Public (nothing that interesting though) so it shouldn't be that hard to do it -- in theory.

 

[bakgwailo]

I always figured the base line was off of the rated track speed with a fudge factor/train traffic layered on top and compared to the actual times seen.

 

[Tallguy]

It might be from a lack of funding and staff, or some combination of the two.

The TransitMatters slow zone tracker came about around the time the FTA was doing their investigation into the MBTA's safety practices. TransitMatters has data back to 2016, and the FTA called out a section of very worn out and deteriorated track that had been in place in 2019. Already, this should've raised a bell that using a median value to calculate the TransitMatters Slow Zone dashboard was going to miss the slow zones that existed at Back Bay, and that a new formula to re-calculate the baseline travel is necessary then, and more so now, to even try to gauge how many slow zones are there.

I'd think that the Red Line might be approaching 25 minutes of total delay from slow zones, or even surpassed 25 minutes already. However, given the use of a median value to calculate slow zones on the TransitMatters dashboard, only 21 minutes appears on their dashboard at this time.

Is there a way for someone to reach out to TransitMatters, and get them to try to develop a new formula to calculate the baseline travel time/speeds and better catch much the false negative slow zones that exist out there right now? While it might not be able to catch 100% of slow zones, I still think it's worthy for a new slow zone calculation formula to reduce the false negative rate for slow zones, it is probably possible to cut the false negative rate by at least half, especially for the Orange Line.

You just did

 

[shmessy]

Absolutely. I don't think it's clickbait so much as annoyed snark, but either way, the T's own failure to communicate properly is directly responsible for articles like this. The best-case scenario is that they are staggeringly (if not surprisingly) incompetent to the point of either not being able to effectively communicate the operational realities to the PR/media people about what the shutdown was and wasn't going to do, or not understanding that themselves. Worst-case scenario is that they outright lied to the public and press to get them off their backs. No matter what it is, it's completely on them. I can understand why they might not want to have to say "we're closing the line, and it's still going to be kinda crud afterwards", but that would at least have had the benefit of being true. Lacking in the spine to deal with the unpleasant reality of a rotted-through agency is still a management failure in the end.

+1 - you are spot on as to the REAL problem at the T.

- I get it, running a metro train system is difficult and mistakes can happen. I would have so much more comfort and respect for Pesatasuro and his office if they just communicated truthfully with the taxpaying public - - "We apologize - we are sorry for the difficulties and we are trying to fix them. We understand this is a big inconvenience and we are trying our best". would be understandable on a human level. However, these people don't have the common decency to do even that. The fact that they hide from the Globe and all media and don't issue any warnings or comments to the public unless almost getting surprise/served by a subpoena is pathetic.

What ISN'T acceptable on any terms is the lying/obfuscations outright disdain for the public by Pesatauro and his office. There is no excuse. They are ACTIVELY thumbing their noses at the taxpaying public and they have to be cleansed out of government immediately. The world view/attitude of these people are a cancer on our community. As long as their thinking is endemic at the T, it will continue to be a disaster.

 

[kingofsheeba]

Accessibility Upgrades Coming to North Station

 

[Jahvon09]

Slightly click bait or not - the MBTA should not be giving any reasons for such articles to be written. Another management failure that is only going to further erode the public's trust and lead more people to avoid using the T.

This is ridiculous!! The line was closed for a month last summer. Now they're coming back to pick on the line again! As if the month-long closing wasn't enough!! They had ample time last summer to get it right!!

 

[Delvin4519]

Red Line and Orange Line signal upgrades have been temporarily suspended.

 

[#bancars]

Did we ever hear anything from the T about what caused the failure in the Type 9 train on Marathon Monday that caused the line-wide snarls on the GL?

 

[ant8904]

Did we ever hear anything from the T about what caused the failure in the Type 9 train on Marathon Monday that caused the line-wide snarls on the GL?

Video shows floor buckling aboard crowded Green Line trolley

Video shows that passengers were standing within inches of the issue when it occurred.

www.wcvb.com

WCVB reports the video showing the incident and reports the MBTA's reasoning - some kind of misalignment in the metal floor developed. They checked all the other type 9s and they couldn't find any indication of similar issues developing in the other type 9s.