MBTA Winter 2015: Failure and Recovery

Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Commentators seem to be missing that a lot of the T's operational issues in this winter weather are related to rolling stock that is in service well past its design life (particularly Orange and Red Lines). That rolling stock replacement is underway, and will be completed well before 2024.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Can anyone tell me about the issues that are causing massive cancellations of the Commuter Rail over the past couple weeks? Is it tied to track conditions or equipment? Does this have to do with needing the remainder of Motive Power's order to replace older locos? Is it related to the Hyundai Rotem's coach cars that aren't fully in service yet?
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

bigeman312 said:
Can anyone tell me about the issues that are causing massive cancellations of the Commuter Rail over the past couple weeks? Is it tied to track conditions or equipment? Does this have to do with needing the remainder of Motive Power's order to replace older locos? Is it related to the Hyundai Rotem's coach cars that aren't fully in service yet?
Click to expand...

I've been wondering that myself. I haven't heard any explanations for the cancellations.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

BussesAin'tTrains said:
I've been wondering that myself. I haven't heard any explanations for the cancellations.
Click to expand...
On railroad.net, the sense I got was its the locomotives (more than the coaches/Rotems) and a mix of:
1) New MPIs not being available for service (haven't been accepted for service due to component-mounting variances) so they're sitting in Rhode Island, and lesser that those that have entered service are still being calibrated for the cold. MPI is a rebuilder, but for the MBTA it played manufacturer and clicked together off-the-shelf battle-tested components, except for the cooling/coolant system which they designed themselves so it is the main component that has "launch customer" problems.

2) Water + Bitter Cold. Too much water flying around as snow gets sucked into warm components, melts, then freezes overnight. So every morning is a crapshoot as to what equipment wakes up healthy. Really, the only way to solve this is to have lots of locomotives to improve the odds that enough wake up healthy, and the MPIs are not providing that margin (see above).
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Guys guys the private sector solves everything.

Look at Hyundai and Breda, theyre private and they always deliver on time and on budget.

Look at Keolis, zero operational problems on commuter rail!

Look at Radio Shack, the private sector is super efficient and always responds to what the public wants.

We should privatize everything, especially because for-profit corporations always have the interest of the public at heart
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Arlington said:
2) Water + Bitter Cold. Too much water flying around as snow gets sucked into warm components, melts, then freezes overnight. So every morning is a crapshoot as to what equipment wakes up healthy. Really, the only way to solve this is to have lots of locomotives to improve the odds that enough wake up healthy, and the MPIs are not providing that margin (see above).
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So the only defense against cold weather is a lottery of having so many redundant locomotives that the remainder would still be enough to provide for all the service? That sounds wasteful and it sounds like there other solutions. Like designs to minimize exposure to water or tactics that avoids components from freezing (though keeping an engine running or a heater is expensive, so is buying spare locomotives).
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

HalcyonEra said:
Bankrupt it. Public isn't going to to go for a bailout.
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Halcyon -- T doesn't need bankruptcy -- it needs performance-driven innovation

The T and the entire Transportation infrastructure organization [i.e. unified MassDOT] needs:

  • A new financial structure which separates operating cost from capital investment [anything designed to last longer than 5 years such as vehicles, operating infrastructure and facilities]
    • Operating cost -- handled with a 2 year budget
      • developed by the T operating Administration
      • approved by the Advisory Committee
      • forward gap funded by the Legislature
    • Capital Investment -- funded on an ongoing basis with a 5 year budget cycle
      • plans fully developed by the T administration
      • outside funding sources solicited
      • projects reviewed and revised
      • direct or bond funding sought from the Legislature
  • Enterprise Operations -- the individual lines and other aspects can be operated as enterprises
    • sharing resources and facilities where possible but otherwise independent
    • as quickly as possible the total compensation of each employee at all levels must be tied to system performance

A feature of the new order -- We need the "Malcolm Butlers" of the T to come forth not be buried under the weight of 19th C work rules and the seniority imposed by the unions
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Arlington said:
On railroad.net, the sense I got was its the locomotives (more than the coaches/Rotems) and a mix of:
1) New MPIs not being available for service (haven't been accepted for service due to component-mounting variances) so they're sitting in Rhode Island, and lesser that those that have entered service are still being calibrated for the cold. MPI is a rebuilder, but for the MBTA it played manufacturer and clicked together off-the-shelf battle-tested components, except for the cooling/coolant system which they designed themselves so it is the main component that has "launch customer" problems.

2) Water + Bitter Cold. Too much water flying around as snow gets sucked into warm components, melts, then freezes overnight. So every morning is a crapshoot as to what equipment wakes up healthy. Really, the only way to solve this is to have lots of locomotives to improve the odds that enough wake up healthy, and the MPIs are not providing that margin (see above).
Click to expand...

Why not electric heaters -- trivial amount of energy consumed compared to normal operations and no problems with freezing

In Fairbanks Alaska, some places in Canada, etc., the parking meters offer plug-in block heaters to keep the oil in the crankcase from getting excessively thick
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

whighlander said:
Why not electric heaters -- trivial amount of energy consumed compared to normal operations and no problems with freezing
Click to expand...
Aboslutely. Railroads in the cold everywhere know how to keep their engines warm. I believe passenger is trickier than freight because all passenger ops come to a full stop at night (while freight tends to keep going and stay staffed)

The traditional solution is to run diesel engines all night (partly because they don't use antifreeze for corrosion or environmental reasons that I don't "get"), and the MBTA does this but there are still extremities that get warm & wet while operating (and by day) that get cold and frozen at night. It may well be that in the profoundly-colder places (Canada) the cold is strong enough to avoid the thaw-freeze cycles that are killing the MBTA. Just like the way that Minnesotans don't plow...it stays so cold that driving on snow is like driving on the hard flat sands of Daytona Beach)

Nobody, though, is ready to have their freeze-thaw cycling pushed as far out of "normal" as we've had (and, yes, at a time when we're short on locomotives).

As you intuit, the "right" solution is MBTA locomotive layovers that have "shore power" to plug into and run electric heaters. The EPA is pushing everything this way, and the MBTA is going there fast. But had, for example, intended that the new electric-heated layovers would go in new, enlarged yards in Plaistow & Nashua (coupled with "free" CR stations and line extensions) but NH freaked out (Plaistow protesters held "No Layover" signs with smoking steam engines, when it'd be closer to saying they were protesting the noise and pollution of electric blankets). So that's still in the pipeline.

And then it's just that our snow has been at the very extreme of accumulation at the same time that the cold has been in the single digits and we've got a new engine that's being shaken down with no margin of spares.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

whighlander said:
Halcyon -- T doesn't need bankruptcy -- it needs performance-driven innovation

The T and the entire Transportation infrastructure organization [i.e. unified MassDOT] needs:

  • A new financial structure which separates operating cost from capital investment [anything designed to last longer than 5 years such as vehicles, operating infrastructure and facilities]
    • Operating cost -- handled with a 2 year budget
      • developed by the T operating Administration
      • approved by the Advisory Committee
      • forward gap funded by the Legislature
    • Capital Investment -- funded on an ongoing basis with a 5 year budget cycle
      • plans fully developed by the T administration
      • outside funding sources solicited
      • projects reviewed and revised
      • direct or bond funding sought from the Legislature
  • Enterprise Operations -- the individual lines and other aspects can be operated as enterprises
    • sharing resources and facilities where possible but otherwise independent
    • as quickly as possible the total compensation of each employee at all levels must be tied to system performance

A feature of the new order -- We need the "Malcolm Butlers" of the T to come forth not be buried under the weight of 19th C work rules and the seniority imposed by the unions
Click to expand...

I agree with you. However, the weight of 19th C work rules and union crap will not give way so easily.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Arlington said:
Aboslutely. Railroads in the cold everywhere know how to keep their engines warm. I believe passenger is trickier than freight because all passenger ops come to a full stop at night (while freight tends to keep going and stay staffed)

The traditional solution is to run diesel engines all night (partly because they don't use antifreeze for corrosion or environmental reasons that I don't "get"), and the MBTA does this but there are still extremities that get warm & wet while operating (and by day) that get cold and frozen at night. It may well be that in the profoundly-colder places (Canada) the cold is strong enough to avoid the thaw-freeze cycles that are killing the MBTA. Just like the way that Minnesotans don't plow...it stays so cold that driving on snow is like driving on the hard flat sands of Daytona Beach)

Nobody, though, is ready to have their freeze-thaw cycling pushed as far out of "normal" as we've had (and, yes, at a time when we're short on locomotives).

As you intuit, the "right" solution is MBTA locomotive layovers that have "shore power" to plug into and run electric heaters. The EPA is pushing everything this way, and the MBTA is going there fast. But had, for example, intended that the new electric-heated layovers would go in new, enlarged yards in Plaistow & Nashua (coupled with "free" CR stations and line extensions) but NH freaked out (Plaistow protesters held "No Layover" signs with smoking steam engines, when it'd be closer to saying they were protesting the noise and pollution of electric blankets). So that's still in the pipeline.

And then it's just that our snow has been at the very extreme of accumulation at the same time that the cold has been in the single digits and we've got a new engine that's being shaken down with no margin of spares.
Click to expand...

Why not build low cost shelters over the yards, that are (modestly) heated (not comfortable, but above freezing). That really cannot be that expensive.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

HalcyonEra said:
I agree with you. However, the weight of 19th C work rules and union crap will not give way so easily.
Click to expand...

I don't see what whighlander's proposal with "Performance-driven innovation" and what HalcyonEra towards fixing this. We are getting wrecked because trains are breaking down and signal system not able to handle things. What kind of "Malcolm Butlers" MBTA train driving going to innovate as an Orange Line train won't start up? Sing a song that will wake it up?

To my understanding, we already separate operating budgets and capital budgets. We already keep a budget handling maintenance, payroll, and those daily costs. And the capital costs are separate budget - as we are not tossing the costs of building GLX or the RL/OL trains with the operating budget. So I'll need a much better analysis of the current system and this idea to be able to see how it would allow the MBTA to have the money to stop deferring maintenance and ordering trains 5 years late. How anything said that we don't already do... and how that leads to some "innovations" that allows the system to run satisfactory when a lot of our problems is because we are hamstrung with $400 million dollars a year going to debt service.

The word "needs performance-driven innovation" bothers me the most of all that. What do we need to innovate exactly? Our troubles is not because we a go-getting conductor is held back from being a better conductor by work rules. Nor because a maintenance worker needs to innovate new practices and procedures to maintain trains. Systems from countries around the world have been facing the same stuff for decades, centuries even. I'm pretty sure Boston have seen the same problems too. Pretty damn high chance that if we are innovating something in regards keeping the trains running on quickly and on-time, we are reinventing the wheel.

And again, the current problems hammering the MBTA is we can't get the trains to run on time and reliably. Which most of the recent days is because our trains and infrastructure don't have ability to stay functioning from snow. Which is caused by the system now too old or not maintained enough to endure through pressure (though I willing to give some ground that some stuff is just not design to handle that much snow, but I am running on the belief most equipment have take into account of that on some level). All of that goes back to funding.

Aboslutely. Railroads in the cold everywhere know how to keep their engines warm. I believe passenger is trickier than freight because all passenger ops come to a full stop at night (while freight tends to keep going and stay staffed)

The traditional solution is to run diesel engines all night (partly because they don't use antifreeze for corrosion or environmental reasons that I don't "get"), and the MBTA does this but there are still extremities that get warm & wet while operating (and by day) that get cold and frozen at night. It may well be that in the profoundly-colder places (Canada) the cold is strong enough to avoid the thaw-freeze cycles that are killing the MBTA. Just like the way that Minnesotans don't plow...it stays so cold that driving on snow is like driving on the hard flat sands of Daytona Beach)
Click to expand...

Then why aren't we doing that? We have been in this 2 weeks now. More than enough time to realize that it's time to pull up those practices unless it is not working or the derp just goes that deep.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

ant8904 said:
I don't see what whighlander's proposal with "Performance-driven innovation" and what HalcyonEra towards fixing this. We are getting wrecked because trains are breaking down and signal system not able to handle things. What kind of "Malcolm Butlers" MBTA train driving going to innovate as an Orange Line train won't start up? Sing a song that will wake it up?

To my understanding, we already separate operating budgets and capital budgets. We already keep a budget handling maintenance, payroll, and those daily costs. And the capital costs are separate budget - as we are not tossing the costs of building GLX or the RL/OL trains with the operating budget. So I'll need a much better analysis of the current system and this idea to be able to see how it would allow the MBTA to have the money to stop deferring maintenance and ordering trains 5 years late. How anything said that we don't already do... and how that leads to some "innovations" that allows the system to run satisfactory when a lot of our problems is because we are hamstrung with $400 million dollars a year going to debt service.

The word "needs performance-driven innovation" bothers me the most of all that. What do we need to innovate exactly? Our troubles is not because we a go-getting conductor is held back from being a better conductor by work rules. Nor because a maintenance worker needs to innovate new practices and procedures to maintain trains. Systems from countries around the world have been facing the same stuff for decades, centuries even. I'm pretty sure Boston have seen the same problems too. Pretty damn high chance that if we are innovating something in regards keeping the trains running on quickly and on-time, we are reinventing the wheel.

And again, the current problems hammering the MBTA is we can't get the trains to run on time and reliably. Which most of the recent days is because our trains and infrastructure don't have ability to stay functioning from snow. Which is caused by the system now too old or not maintained enough to endure through pressure (though I willing to give some ground that some stuff is just not design to handle that much snow, but I am running on the belief most equipment have take into account of that on some level). All of that goes back to funding.



Then why aren't we doing that? We have been in this 2 weeks now. More than enough time to realize that it's time to pull up those practices unless it is not working or the derp just goes that deep.
Click to expand...

I really don't want to go on a rant about unions but they do create extreme inefficiencies as there is a mantra to keep the job going. I have no idea what goes on at the T but I'll give you an example of what I have seen. When I was in college I worked the 3rd shift at a papermill. The job paid well for a summer job and was pretty easy. I was the helper on this giant machine that stretched huge paper rolls while adding pulp and some lord-knows what chemical to whiten it. Anyway, frequently debris would spill out of it. The first time it happened, I grabbed a broom and starting sweeping it up and the guy who ran the machine freaked out on me, telling me that we are to call maintenance as that was their job. And when there was debris on the floor, the machine was not to run, period. Sometimes maintenance would come quickly, other-times they didn't, sometimes they never came at all during the shift. It was utterly stupid and deeply impacted production, but no one cared, so long as the positions were protected.

And the reason why outsourcing quasi public jobs fails is not that the private sector cannot be a more efficient means, but that there are not adequate service level agreements and penalties in place for the failure to hits those benchmarks. After all, the private sector will most always try to maximize profits.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

ant8904 said:
Then why aren't we doing that? We have been in this 2 weeks now. More than enough time to realize that it's time to pull up those practices unless it is not working or the derp just goes that deep.
Click to expand...
AFAIK, they are, but (in their defense as an outsider) I'd say that it still takes a while to accumulate enough experience in our local extremes to say what the new normal should be (but as managers puzzle through this, they lose a certain amount of their safety margin every day as more trains getbroken than can be quickly fixed. The key was having that safety margin (via aggressive preventative maintenance) at the start of the process, and we didn't.

The NYC transit authority (I interned there) was run entirely on "Mean Time Between Failure" MTBF. They actually couldn't track individual railcars (bad IT), but they could look at fleet characteristics and make sure that things got their preventative maintenance on an interval designed to be sooner than the average failure would occur. (it is a stupid system, yes: they couldn't pull lemons and retire them, but for most cars, you don't really know whats driving failure anyway). Due to budget pressures, all systems end up getting cut to where they're just one step ahead of normal problems. Throw abnormal at them and its chaos.

It is a game of statistics and the point is that because of deferred maintenance and late deployment of the MPI HSP-46s (the new "big logo" locomotives) we didn't have enough margin to lose as many bets as we were losing every day.

The famous story of how, in the winter of 2004, $50 worth of 5-cent hairnets (attached with electrical tape) were discovered to save $126,000 per year in motor failures is instructive. Even where the solution is "obvious" in retrospect, it just takes time to figure out what's wrong, figure out a fix, and deploy it, and to recover from the losses you suffered in the meantime.
 
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Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Arlington said:
Aboslutely.

As you intuit, the "right" solution is MBTA locomotive layovers that have "shore power" to plug into and run electric heaters. The EPA is pushing everything this way, and the MBTA is going there fast. But had, for example, intended that the new electric-heated layovers would go in new, enlarged yards in Plaistow & Nashua (coupled with "free" CR stations and line extensions) but NH freaked out (Plaistow protesters held "No Layover" signs with smoking steam engines, when it'd be closer to saying they were protesting the noise and pollution of electric blankets). So that's still in the pipeline.
Click to expand...

The majority of MBTA layovers already have plug-ins, including Bradford on the Haverhill line. The Lowell trains and one train set for the Haverhill line deadhead from the yard in Boston. Even with plug ins, the locomotives have to be fired up for awhile early in the morning before they are ready for service.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Arlington said:
On railroad.net, the sense I got was its the locomotives (more than the coaches/Rotems) and a mix of:
1) New MPIs not being available for service (haven't been accepted for service due to component-mounting variances) so they're sitting in Rhode Island, and lesser that those that have entered service are still being calibrated for the cold. MPI is a rebuilder, but for the MBTA it played manufacturer and clicked together off-the-shelf battle-tested components, except for the cooling/coolant system which they designed themselves so it is the main component that has "launch customer" problems.

2) Water + Bitter Cold. Too much water flying around as snow gets sucked into warm components, melts, then freezes overnight. So every morning is a crapshoot as to what equipment wakes up healthy. Really, the only way to solve this is to have lots of locomotives to improve the odds that enough wake up healthy, and the MPIs are not providing that margin (see above).
Click to expand...

Some trains have been cancelled because of lack of crews or crews "outlawing" with too many hours because of late trains. It's not just the equipment that takes a beating in weather like this.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Yes remember the folks on the front lines. And outlawing is a matter of Federal (FRA) standards which limit shift lengths and mandate rest. Fewer delays could help, but this isn't a problem that privatization would fix. Big Union work rule changes could probably help, (if shifts/schedules got *really* flexible), but I don't think that is what people should be thinking is the solution.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Work rules mandate overstaffing. It's utterly ridiculous to have 1 conductor for every 2 train cars. Can you imagine if the subways were like this? Completely ridiculous. This is the year 2015, it's time for the railroads to start behaving like it.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

HalcyonEra said:
I agree with you. However, the weight of 19th C work rules and union crap will not give way so easily.
Click to expand...

They won't have to---I think its starting to unravel and people in this state are realizing that Traffic is becoming increasingly concerning as the MBTA is not as efficient as it should be.

They are already complaining about the Seaport Traffic and that area is not even half built yet. Don't forget about the 1.5 Billion dollar casino in the mix on the outside of Somerville.

Great post Whigh--With a good basic understanding of the problems.

It's time to get rid of the Unions and also start holding these political people accountable.
 
Re: MBTA & Regualr Driving may be Shut Down During Coming Snowstorm!

Countries with strong union traditions manage to run far superior and efficient train and bus service than us.

I don't think it's the unions. Maybe it's OUR unions, but not unions in general.
 
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