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However, they're achievable as "Fairmounted" alternates:
1) Add New Balance + Newton Corner + a Riverside turnout to the Worcester Line and upgrade the 3 single-platform Newton stops, put some nimble crossovers every couple stations so thru trains can easily pass the locals, run a Fairmount schedule. Couple fewer stops than the old plan but covers all the essentials and can be implemented SOON.
Would Faneuil be worthy of a stop do you think?
2) Reopen the former CR line from Readville to Dedham Ctr. on the landbanked/un-trailed/un-built Dedham Branch, which is completely grade-separated and well-buffered from the neighbors. Intermediate stop at East Dedham. Can be a single-track branch off the Fairmount Line, dividing service patterns between Westwood/128 and Dedham Ctr. Would require the Fairmount-Franklin connector truss bridge to be replaced with a realigned one featuring a track split. Lower-priority, but not real expensive and accomplishes approximately what the OL plan did.
This could eventually be converted to Red/HRT if they ever convert Mattapan to HRT right?
3) n/a. They actually ought to eventually close Hyde Park station and let nearby Fairmount subsume all the local boardings + bus transfers if they want to keep stuff moving smoothly on the post-2025 NEC. And Westwood can easily take a Fairmount extension without congestion since there's room for an eventual easterly turnout and 5 total tracks/platforms at the station. The presence of Fairmount mitigates somewhat the need for that old OL branch.
If you also got HRT from Mattapan on that corridor, would both Fairmount and Readville transfer between Commuter Rail and HRT, or would one of them drop the Commuter Rail?
2) Orange-W. Rox. Only the Dedham stop is blocked, and as discussed this is ultimately a high-priority one for the outer neighborhoods and because the Needham Line is choked by the NEC.
If the next mayor doesn't push for a preparatory extension to Rozzie it will be a scandal...
2a) Green-Needham Jct. As discussed a project dependency for cutting the Needham Line for Orange, and mega ridership on the north end.
This would need to be done in tandem with Orange to WRox to avoid prolonged loss of transit to either community right?
3) Red-Arlington. Would be built per the 1970's plan as a continuation of the subway (currently ending under Thorndike Field in Arlington) through Arlington Ctr. with surface portal roughly between Water St. and Mill St. in same shallow construction as the Davis-Alewife segment. So the Minuteman would only be closed temporarily in small small segments during construction (Thorndike Field-Lake St., then Lake St.-Linwood, etc.) then put back together on top of the tunnel.
To Heights the Minuteman can easily be shifted a few feet aside at Russell Pl. and the Summer St. vicinity, then the ROW gets a bit wider and should fit both. Although there is probably going to be some remaining NIMBY resistance here, so it's better to build to Ctr. first as one distinct project...pour the whole subway, use the Ctr.-Water/Mill stub as replacement Alewife layover tracks.
Then Lexington where there would be some trade-offs with a far less picturesque trail next to the rails (i.e. looking more like the GLX Somerville path extension than the Somerville path near Davis). But this is why it's better to construct in stages. I think Arlington Ctr. needs to happen eventually because the 77 will simply be that congested in 15 years and there's only so much BRT-lite you can attempt on Mass Ave. past Harvard. But they can take it slow past there.
So you think that critical potential ridership mass will overwhelm the Arlington "urban elements" NIMBYs? The first phase to the Center will be the most sure thing, since the demographics of East Arlington/Arlington Flats are screaming for service. Maybe the Heights will want their "shiny new toy" once the Center gets service, but there will be a mini-civil war in Lexington between the NIMBYs and those pushing for development and transit to 128/Hanscom. Anyone living near the bike path will put up a huge fight over any rail, especially above ground.
The phasing you highlighted would be very important for putting the idea in people's heads and beginning the political advocacy process.
4) Orange-Reading. Put it this way: if the N-S Link opens and forces thru-running electrics, both Needham and Reading become odd man out on thru-running routings. Needham for obvious capacity reasons...it's just going to be too difficult to finagle thru slots with how constrained the schedules are. And Reading because you would never thru-route to Haverhill from somewhere else by going the whole Western Route. It's too painfully long and too hard to keep on-schedule. I bet all Haverhill schedules (incl. surface terminal runs) have long since reverted back to Lowell Line-Wilmington by this point like it used to be pre-1979 and Reading is back to its own Fairmounted local stub. And if that's the case the cost of constructing wholly duplicate electrification to Oak Grove is not going to be worth it and the cost differential to grade separating and going Orange starts to narrow. Plus if the Eastern Route is going to be beneficiary of thru-running (with Portsmouth probably in the mix), it needs to monopolize those extra slots in the constrained Somerville portion shared with the Western Route, which puts Reading in more of a Needham-like situation for unexpandable schedules.
Will there be political will in Melrose/Wakefield/Reading to support this? Do you think that Wyoming Hill and Cedar Park should be consolidated at Wyoming were Orange to push north? Looking at the numbers in the 2010 service stats they would both have anemic ridership. Also plop a park and ride at Quannapowitt for sure, there's a perfect spot for it.
5) GLX (or heavy rail substitution) to Woburn. I bet a West Medford tack-on gets some movement after Route 16 is built as the NIMBY's about-face and suddenly want their toy. If the Lowell Line is grade-separated here they're almost certainly going to provision the duck-under for 4 tracks, which will allow West Medford to flip to LRT sooner. 2030, let's say. Now...let's say by the time the state's serious about final N-S Link era you've got 1) high-frequency Lowell-Nashua local service running on a dense schedule more or less in Worcester's ballpark, 2) relocated Anderson-Haverhill expresses running at full schedule, 3) NHDOT/Concord expresses running at full schedule, and 4) a much more robust and Regionals-esque Downeaster schedule sharing all the same 90 MPH track. It can easily handle all that, but the inside-128 stops start getting squeezed when you throw a *significant* amount of NEC thru-running via the Link through there. Now you gotta think seriously about displacing Wedgemere, Winch. Ctr., whatever Woburn infill stop exists by then (Montvale Ave.?), and Mishawum if it still exists to keep all this New Hampshire thru-running moving along.
The ROW is 4 tracks wide everywhere except for the mid-1950's grade separation on the Winch. Ctr. viaduct. So there you go...pretty easy rapid transit to Anderson absorbing all local stops if the stone arch bridge over 16 is widened and West Medford's provisioned for 4-track, and if the rapid transit ducks in a short subway under the Winchester viaduct. Up the Lowell Line speed to 110-125 MPH with all trains expressing from Boston.
Would a route that long work as Green for LRT dispatch, or would it have to be converted to HRV before moving beyond West Medford?
I do not think Waltham via Fitchburg is ever going to work. Belmont's NIMBY's are so rich they will never warm to rapid transit, and I don't know if Red through downtown can handle another north branch if Hanscom is on the table. This might be better as a GLX-Porter tack-on. If GLX-Medford got subsumed by heavy rail there'd probably be enough capacity to fork the Union/Porter branch to Watertown and Waltham. Fitchburg is ex- 4 track through Belmont. The Central Mass from Beaver Brook to 128 can have commuter rail diverted over it to meet back up with the Fitchburg at 128, with rapid transit taking over Waltham Ctr. and Brandeis. Probably better with Green than Red given the tricky grade crossings.
But I think you've got a damn hard slog of it trying to get 2 side-by-side modes through Belmont without pearl-clutching from the rich locals. 2050 might be too optimistic for them.
How about a "Fairmounting" of Fitchburg to 128? Or is even that too much for the Belmont "rip out the Trackless Trolley overhead" NIMBYs?
I've always thought Green was more feasible for Watertown/Waltham than Red. Is potential Green Line the ROW between Watertown and Waltham intact, or is there there stuff in the way like the dealership on Arsenal Street? Is the length an issue? It's about as far as Riverside. Or does being on a dedicated RoW mitigate those issues?
Blue from Lynn to south-of-portal Salem on the Eastern Route is viable. That is a 4-track ROW the whole way and the estimated North Shore ridership is mind-blowing. I do not think you could go through the tunnel, since there definitely isn't enough room to widen it for CR and put a rapid transit berth. Subsuming Chelsea, Riverworks, Lynn, and Swampscott to rapid transit helps a lot if Portsmouth/Rockport are going to see a ton of Link thru-running. You want to get to 128 fast.
Where would the transfer between CR and Blue be, since Blue would terminate before the tunnel? Lynn?
I do not think further Red extension south of Braintree is viable, despite the attractiveness of Randolph Ctr. The ridership just isn't quite high enough to jibe with the rest of the branch's boardings, and the Old Colony was never wider than 2 tracks.
Might be worth a study in the future once all the other build outs happen, but you're probably right.
You COULD double-up Fairmount with Red from Mattapan south of the Neponset where there used to be so many freight sidings the ROW is a continuous 4-track width to Readville. If you were willing to subway under River St. or deep-bore Porter-Davis -style under houses to reach the ROW before the Neponset bridge. But that is probably not anyone's idea of a high-priority project unless Hyde Park looks too transit-starved by comparison after Rozzie, West Roxbury, and Mattapan get their heavy rail. Post-2040 at earliest.
Only way to get rapid transit to Dedham right? Although they would probably prefer your Commuter Rail deal. Dedham really seems to enjoy pretending to be much farther away from Boston than it really is...