I understand Blue Line would still have the lowest ridership, but the other lines extend either direction from downtown. Half their ridership comes from one side of the city, and half comes from the other side. But the Blue Line's entire ridership would be coming from just one area. I can very easily be convinced that 6-car sets are adequate, I would just be very surprised to hear that.
Great point on moving Salem back to the old location. I'm not sure why I never thought of this in all my hamfisted transit fantasies. The old location looks like it was a much better location. There's no pressing need to keep the current one unless we're on a parking sink binge and bow to parking. It seems the default I've always come across is to have the Blue Line terminate at a transfer South Salem station near Salem State. The old location really is superior in so many ways, though. When can we realistically expect that, though? I mean, all that money was just pissed away on the current station.
Blue is so Eastie-centric that Maverick is the ridership center of the line. It's very different from the other 3 in that regard. State St.'s Blue Book boardings are 4993 Blue vs. 8265 Orange; GC's are 2835 Blue vs. 7993 Green. Charles MGH figures to have similar 70/30 split between Red and Blue. Daily line transfers also have an asynchronous skew that consistently favors the higher-ridership line over the lower-ridership line every time. GC has 14,156 Blue-to-Green transfers vs. 13,527 Green-to-Blue, State 9572 Blue-to-Orange transfers vs. 9080 Orange-to-Blue.
Obviously Blue has significant room to grow downtown with expansion to Charles and to Lynn, general growth in Eastie and Revere, and Yellow Line network growth as the North Shore bus network gets its perma-fixes for exponential service increases. But it's not like the other 3 color lines are standing still; the whole reason we're pants-shitting scared of downtown mobility grinding to a halt is because Red/Orange/Green figure to keep growing so explosively. Ridership
shares are probably going to track in tandem. And the highest-ridership Blue stop is going to continue to be Maverick fueled by the untangling and subsequent explosion of those five heavy-ridership Eastie/Revere/Chelsea bus routes once Lynn terminal's equipment drain gets fixed by the Blue extension. As previously noted, Maverick increases could equal Lynn/Central Sq.'s all-new ridership contributions just from Lynn perma-fixing the Eastie bus equipment distribution.
For these reasons you'll likely never hit a point where crowding is so unbalanced that dwells start to become a serious problem before ever crossing the Harbor, because the point of maximum overchurn centers on Maverick instead of the Big 4 downtown transfers like the other 3 color lines. Hell, if you even wanted to go wholest-hog and extend the line west from Charles to Kenmore with +2 more intermediates it still wouldn't change the overchurn point or put any stress whatsoever on what a 6-car train can hold if headways were improved to Orange-ish levels. And a Kenmore-Salem line would still be a half-mile shorter than Red Alewife-Braintree, with fewer stations than a post-GLX D Line schedule will cover in a few years between Riverside and Lechmere (nevermind all the extension stops on top of that).
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That whole "get to Lynn first" struggle unfortunately puts Salem completely off any planning clock until Lynn is a go. There's no Step 2 without a Step 1...and no Step 1 without the very much non-optional in any universe Step 0 of doing Red-Blue. There's a whole lot of heads that have to get un-buried from sand before a priority as high as Lynn can get back in the planning real world. The great retreat from taking critical projects like Red-Blue and Silver Line Phase III restarts off the TIP was a hugely costly momentum-killer.
Realistic chances are that the Salem garage is going to be nearing the age Quincy Ctr. garage got when people started becoming sick of it before there's an actual bite at the apple to do it right and properly urban at a downtown multimodal superstation.
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In the meantime we'll have to go through the *minor* stupidity in 8 years of jackhammering up the southerly 50 ft. of brand new Salem platform and re-pouring that lost 50 ft. at the north end to undo the design mistake of blocking a 2-track switch out of the portal. Then they can finally move some hillside dirt, do a facing platform that increases frequencies, and solve the tunnel traffic management enough that widening the tunnel probably won't ever be necessary (esp. if the
South Salem/SSU infill provides complementary south-of-portal throttle for staging delay-free tunnel slips). Not expensive to mod, and they didn't salt the earth in any devastating way...but it's another annoying reminder of how the parkingparkingparking tunnel vision on that soon-to-be white elephant led to pants-on-head project mgt. stupidity.
Then they'll have to sharply increase service levels on the Newburyport Branch to let North Beverly--the station that actually
is directly at a Route 128 exit--play goalie for some of that unnecessary longer-distance P&R traffic that's slamming the dense Salem & Beverly downtowns. Depressingly, the '04 North Shore Transit Improvements Study was on top of all of this...and just got thrown in the trash. The study specced installation of
two more double-track passing sidings in Ipswich and Rowley,
renovation of N. Bev., and
increasing rush-hour frequencies on the branch. Expanding the tiny 87-space lot at N. Bev is going to be the town's problem for lack of expansion space, but the sprawled-out big box mall that runs behind the full length of the station on the Route 1A side offers plenty of options if the public-private players are willing.
Then of course everyone up here still badly wants the Peabody Branch, even if it's just a Peabody Sq. placeholder that clinches the eventual Phase II to North Shore Mall as a later inevitability. That does even more for the car crush in downtown Salem and still would function as a critical 9-5'er/P&R'er load diversion when the Blue Line comes to town. Distance and local bus coverage to Salem is comparable to Holbrook-Randolph and South Weymouth to the Red + branch splits @ Braintree, so Peabody would retain most of its native CR demand without excessive Blue cannibalization.