It seems like at least part of how they achieved closer to clock-facing schedules was spreading out the trains because the COVID-induced skyrocketing of work-from-home meant that the demand all those peak trains were carrying essentially vanished. Since that demand hasn't returned to pre-pandemic levels, it's not clear to me whether they have the capacity (in terms of equipment and employees) to both meet a full-demand peak service should that be necessary and to maintain the wider clock-facing service throughout the day. In essence, at least at first, they didn't so much add capacity as move it around, and I remain concerned about how the system will fare if and when they need to dedicate more service specifically at peak.
Mod: This is turning into an MBTA CR Operations discussion so feel free to move if needed.
I am aware the all-day service replaced the old peak service model during the pandemic. From an equipment and logistical standpoint, they can clearly run peak service because they were doing it prior to COVID, and I haven’t read about any mass retirements of locomotives or coaches since 2019 that’d prevent them from running it again. So it must be a labor issue, which I can understand given the unemployment rate and all employers complaining about labor shortages. Didn’t the T / Keolis save on labor costs by switching to the all-day model? Can’t they plow some of that savings into some extra peak service (given they can find workers).
And when I say return peak service, by no means do I think they should go back to the pre-COVID peak hours (something like 6-10am and 3-7pm). That’s clearly too much given where demand is now and the work from home phenomenon. Maybe something more narrow like 7-8:30am and 4:30-6:00pm (i.e. peak service “light”) where they can add a couple more consists to entice those who switched to driving since 2020 and are hesitant to return to CR given lack of peak service.
Anecdotally, those in my downtown Boston office claim they would take the CR again if there was more peak service. Right now they fall into two camps :
Live outside 128: drive into Boston
Live inside 128: drive into Boston or drive to a rapid transit station and park
They claim (and btw I’m very skeptical of their claim given the allure of the SOV) that the lack of peak frequency is what is holding them back. Well, both that and the CR cost (but that’s a different argument).
Anyway my hope with the NS, SS, and BBY fare gates is the silver lining that the T /Keolis will have much more accurate data to gauge demand and make scheduling decisions based on that. It’s clear the Tuesday - Thursday roadway commutes are back to pre-pandemic levels, so the time equation does make sense again (public transit vs driving). If the T was ever inventive, maybe offer the peak service “light” I described above on those three days where the operational costs could be recouped.
Again, I’m just shooting from the hip here because I have no data, but the peak trains
seem more crowded since Labor Day and I think there’s some “if you build it, they will come” demand out there during the worst traffic days.