Re: Track 61 (Seaport - Back Bay DMU)
Since they seem to have solved the issues getting around widett, the layover on the Back Bay platforms is what is really going to be the issue here, yes?
Anyway, regarding the DMU... if they can't figure out how to schedule during the morning and evening peak, then the whole effort is useless.
No, according to one of the southside MBCR guys on RR.net BBY is not much of an issue, but it must--no give--be on the Worcester platforms. The NEC platforms are way too congested at all hours. Worcester will work without clogging anything at all hours except peak rush. And Yawkey and/or New Balance wouldn't be much different if this run were extended. It only gets dicey when you look at Fairmounting Worcester. Year 5 or 7 of this thing might be hitting a brick wall at BBY capacity, since you can't ever add a third Worcester platform inside the Pike tunnel.
This will necessitate the Worcester platforms being raised to full-highs. But they no longer need to be mini-highs because CSX no longer has a freight clearance route through here with Beacon Park closed and Yawkey going full-high. So that's a to-do item that now needs to happen regardless. And not real expensive.
The rush hour schedule thing is the Fatal Threat above all others. If you have southside ops guys saying running
at all may be physically impossible at the 7-10 and 4-7 peaks because of all the crossing traffic on the Old Colony, Fairmount, Southampton non-revenue, and on the SS leads into BBY...there's no way this can possibly work. No schedule expansion at all those hours doesn't seem like it could possibly work when those are the start/end hours for conventions at BCEC and a very real tipping point for convention groups who want their transportation options detailed before signing on the dotted line. Local commuters might not care too much about that on "something's better than nothing" grounds and understanding of what a zoo SS and BBY are at crush load. But the bigwigs bringing the money won't, and the out-of-towners won't.
The other potentially fatal snag is Amtrak. That is very much real. It is total no-go if the state does not have a new layover yard to GTFO of Southampton. That is a real, nasty dispute that's been boiling over of late with the Worcester schedule expansion (those 6+ car consists can only fit in Amtrak's parking spots), glut of new equipment coming online, and all other incremental service expansion. And they don't have a parcel today. They can buy or lease one tomorrow, but it's too late to start design/permit/build and get it done in 2 years.
And as I said on the last page, if they have to keep Widett loop clear no other ad hoc parking spot works except for the Beacon Park engine yard with its loop...which they bafflingly have not looked at yet. Any off-line equipment moves to Widett--which happen every single midday shift change--have to reverse direction on the loop on the lines that don't have a detour shot down the Fairmount (i.e. all Worcester, Needham, and off-northside/Grand Junction) have loop so the locomotive exhaust faces the correct direction away from the SS platforms. It's Widett, BP @ Storrow, or bust. And they don't have an executable plan today.
The other Amtrak threat is simply making them late in the yard. Because the Amtrak building is south of all these switches the DMU has to cross, they need traffic modeling to the nines that says a Regional or Acela will never be delayed onto platform by a T revenue move. Because they usually don't lay over on platform between runs like the T does when half the time they have to pull into the maint building to restock the dining cars, empty the toilets, relieve a crew shift, and sometimes turn directions so the baggage car is facing the proper loading spot on-platform for Penn or D.C. Union. They lay down the hammer when those yard reloads have to play hurry-up to get back on-platform because some yard-crossing MBCR traffic has to get out of the way. They're the ones who could banish this thing at rush hour or limit the schedule from ever having an on-peak increase. That problem doesn't necessarily go away if the T gets a new layover because Old Colony + full-blast Fairmount schedule alone gets the yard pretty close to the limit for crossing traffic (everything converges from either side of the Amtrak building).
If either of these highly contentious issues are no-go with Amtrak, that's the end of it right there. And it's not all about Amtrak being bullheaded with its dispatching preemption...they can't run their desired NEC schedule without this priority. BOS-NYC schedules live and die by Southampton's efficiency. You should see how much they want to expand space in there to meet their 2040 vision. There could be nothing but MBCR and Amtrak tracks filling up the whole of Widett in 20 years...the BTD tow lot, cold storage building, and the Boston Food Market warehouses altogether. It's as much potential new train facility acreage as airlifting over 1-1/2 northside Boston Engine Terminals and plunking it next to everything else that's already there.
What concerns me here given all this traffic growth--Worcester "Fairmounting", Amtrak Amtrak Amtrak, SS expansion requiring Southampton super-sizing, likely full-blown Hyannis and Foxboro CR flooding the Old Colony and Fairmount even more--is that I'm not sure how this service can be permanent on a 10+ year range before whatever meager schedule it can top out at starts getting squeezed and whittled down further by exploding cross traffic. They almost MUST restart SL Phase III planning at some point if they want a permanent solution, because this thing is probably finished by 2030. Not to mention tend to the rest of their downtown circulation woes...CBTC signaling for 3-min. headways on Red and Orange, Red-Blue, North-South, UR. It all starts choking on its own congestion, and this is the first victim because its capacity ceiling is so crippled to begin with. They really shot themselves in the foot dropping all these projects from the official state Trans. Improvement Plan and halting all studies and prelim EIS'ing on every single build.