The St Regis Residences (former Whiskey Priest site) | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

[KentXie]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

No, real life is not as simple as Economics 101, but that does not mean it moves in the opposite direction of Economics 101 either. Demand is downward sloping, period. This is true in theory and in practice. Please, go find a situation where it isn't true and then take advantage of that to make yourself infinitely wealthy.

I never said the demand curve is not downward sloping but you are wrong to say that only the supply curve shifts. The demand curve shifts for many reasons but it's especially at this time that I'm forecasting that the demand curve will be shifting to the right over time in the near future. The economy of Boston as well as the nation as a whole is in a boom period meaning two things: 1) companies will be expanding meaning they will be hiring more employees and looking for more places to house, and 2) more people being hired + decrease in unemployment rate leading to a rise in overall wages = more money to spend. This mean there will be more people in the near future that would be able to afford higher end products, whether it be housing or other goods. These companies will be looking to expand into new offices, their new employees will be looking to move closer to their work place, and the retail business will be looking to open new stores wherever these companies and employees move.

Curves don't shift with changes in quantity, the market equilibrium just moves along them. And as you move along the demand curve with increasing quantity, price drops.

Completely wrong. Market equilibrium only moves when one or both curves move and the only time they move is when quantity demanded or quantity supplied changes. See graph below:

It is true that developments create externalities (positive and negative) and the demand curve can shift as perceptions of a good change. But your argument seems to be that the demand curves shifts with each increase in supply to such a degree that prices will never fall. This is unlike any market I've ever heard of, and doesn't conform with reality.

Not exactly what I said. Yes I did say that demand curve and supply curve will be shifting but I never said that prices will never fall. What I said is that prices will not fall (if they even fall) to the point where developers and owners will be necessarily looking to have non-high end business, at least not at the rate the supply is being created. The Seaport is a small area and it remains to be seen that the supply of new commercial and residential space once the entire Seaport is built out will be enough to satisfy current and upcoming demand. A better scenario would be if the Seaport is competing with another area in Boston that is attracting the same demographic which they may with the Fenway neighborhood coming up but as of now I just don't foresee supply gaining enough ground to dent the price.

As we have previously discussed on this and other threads, much of the demand for the current expensive Seaport restaurants is corporate demand, largely associated with the convention spaces. How is this demand supposed to grow as a result of more retail space getting filled in? And where are all of these richer and richer tenants supposed to come from as more apartments and condos are built? The ink is already starting to spill over the effect that this increased supply is having on prices at the high end. More supply will only exacerbate this, and the market for retail space will behave identically to the market for residential space.

I'm always skeptical of articles saying that rent is on a downward trend. They've been saying for years, yet despite the vacancy, rent prices continue to go up. Part of this is due to the fact that the number of renters have increased significantly, part of it being supply not catching up.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/busines...sing-report/5CoErYq9XyTZof6GylKKpM/story.html

Furthermore, as more companies move into the Seaport, corporate demand increases. In addition, as the Seaport starts to fill out with luxury apartments and condos, you can be sure that restaurants will see demand from residents increase as well. In other words, demand in the Seaport is not restricted to a single customer base. As for how is demand supposed to grow as retail fills out? Easy, they are amenities and people would pay more to live in places where there's more accessibility to amenities and more amenities available. Think how much more attractive the Seaport would be if they open up a sports club, a high end Whole Foods, and/or luxury movie theater. As to where do the wealthy people who fill up the new condos and apartment come from? The suburbs as well as people from out of state who are hired by expanding companies.

Another thing I would add is that, again, with a booming economy, more people are looking to buy new houses and/or find a new place for themselves instead of living with their parents. At least in the foreseeable future, the quantity demanded will increase, further exacerbating the situation since supply is barely keeping up as of now. Depending on how fast the Seaport builds out, the entire Seaport would be mainly high end if they catch the wave, or slightly mixed if the economy tails off in the end.

 

[type001]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

I never said the demand curve is not downward sloping but you are wrong to say that only the supply curve shifts. The demand curve shifts for many reasons but it's especially at this time that I'm forecasting that the demand curve will be shifting to the right over time in the near future. The economy of Boston as well as the nation as a whole is in a boom period meaning two things: 1) companies will be expanding meaning they will be hiring more employees and looking for more places to house, and 2) more people being hired + decrease in unemployment rate leading to a rise in overall wages = more money to spend. This mean there will be more people in the near future that would be able to afford higher end products, whether it be housing or other goods. These companies will be looking to expand into new offices, their new employees will be looking to move closer to their work place, and the retail business will be looking to open new stores wherever these companies and employees move.



Completely wrong. Market equilibrium only moves when one or both curves move and the only time they move is when quantity demanded or quantity supplied changes. See graph below:

Not exactly what I said. Yes I did say that demand curve and supply curve will be shifting but I never said that prices will never fall. What I said is that prices will not fall (if they even fall) to the point where developers and owners will be necessarily looking to have non-high end business, at least not at the rate the supply is being created. The Seaport is a small area and it remains to be seen that the supply of new commercial and residential space once the entire Seaport is built out will be enough to satisfy current and upcoming demand. A better scenario would be if the Seaport is competing with another area in Boston that is attracting the same demographic which they may with the Fenway neighborhood coming up but as of now I just don't foresee supply gaining enough ground to dent the price.



I'm always skeptical of articles saying that rent is on a downward trend. They've been saying for years, yet despite the vacancy, rent prices continue to go up. Part of this is due to the fact that the number of renters have increased significantly, part of it being supply not catching up.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/busines...sing-report/5CoErYq9XyTZof6GylKKpM/story.html

Furthermore, as more companies move into the Seaport, corporate demand increases. In addition, as the Seaport starts to fill out with luxury apartments and condos, you can be sure that restaurants will see demand from residents increase as well. In other words, demand in the Seaport is not restricted to a single customer base. As for how is demand supposed to grow as retail fills out? Easy, they are amenities and people would pay more to live in places where there's more accessibility to amenities and more amenities available. Think how much more attractive the Seaport would be if they open up a sports club, a high end Whole Foods, and/or luxury movie theater. As to where do the wealthy people who fill up the new condos and apartment come from? The suburbs as well as people from out of state who are hired by expanding companies.

Another thing I would add is that, again, with a booming economy, more people are looking to buy new houses and/or find a new place for themselves instead of living with their parents. At least in the foreseeable future, the quantity demanded will increase, further exacerbating the situation since supply is barely keeping up as of now. Depending on how fast the Seaport builds out, the entire Seaport would be mainly high end if they catch the wave, or slightly mixed if the economy tails off in the end.

Agreed. This building looks great!

 

[KentXie]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Agreed. This building looks great!

+1

 

[JumboBuc]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Sorry to keep this thread off-topic, but I feel like this is a healthy, good discussion. Moderators, feel free to move this all if deemed appropriate.

I never said the demand curve is not downward sloping but you are wrong to say that only the supply curve shifts.

Completely wrong. Market equilibrium only moves when one or both curves move and the only time they move is when quantity demanded or quantity supplied changes.

I'm not saying that "only the supply curve shifts", I'm saying that neither curve is shifting (on a somewhat "micro" level, at least; more on that later). Equilibrium in this market is a full build-out of the Seaport. We haven't reached equilibrium yet, due to supply constraints (regulatory constraints, economically inefficient financing, etc.). In equilibrium, no supply sees any advantage to entering a market because profit cannot be had. That is clearly not the case here. Plenty of profit can be had, but constraints are holding supply back. Each building that goes up is not evidence of the supply curve moving, it is evidence of supply constraints being slowly overcome and the market moving towards equilibrium. In EC 101 terms, think of this as a quota being lifted piece-by-piece.

The demand curve shifts for many reasons but it's especially at this time that I'm forecasting that the demand curve will be shifting to the right over time in the near future. The economy of Boston as well as the nation as a whole is in a boom period meaning two things: 1) companies will be expanding meaning they will be hiring more employees and looking for more places to house, and 2) more people being hired + decrease in unemployment rate leading to a rise in overall wages = more money to spend. This mean there will be more people in the near future that would be able to afford higher end products, whether it be housing or other goods. These companies will be looking to expand into new offices, their new employees will be looking to move closer to their work place, and the retail business will be looking to open new stores wherever these companies and employees move.

No argument on this, but these are all macro effects that apply to the entire region. They are unrelated to micro questions of building supply and demand.

Not exactly what I said. Yes I did say that demand curve and supply curve will be shifting but I never said that prices will never fall. What I said is that prices will not fall (if they even fall) to the point where developers and owners will be necessarily looking to have non-high end business, at least not at the rate the supply is being created. The Seaport is a small area and it remains to be seen that the supply of new commercial and residential space once the entire Seaport is built out will be enough to satisfy current and upcoming demand. A better scenario would be if the Seaport is competing with another area in Boston that is attracting the same demographic which they may with the Fenway neighborhood coming up but as of now I just don't foresee supply gaining enough ground to dent the price.

We largely agree on this, but you foresee much more shifting of the demand curve than I do. You put more focus on new buildings adding new amenities and making the neighborhood more attractive. I put more focus on views getting blocked (pushing down the rent premium) and supply outstripping demand.

I'm always skeptical of articles saying that rent is on a downward trend. They've been saying for years, yet despite the vacancy, rent prices continue to go up. Part of this is due to the fact that the number of renters have increased significantly, part of it being supply not catching up.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/busines...sing-report/5CoErYq9XyTZof6GylKKpM/story.html

Another thing I would add is that, again, with a booming economy, more people are looking to buy new houses and/or find a new place for themselves instead of living with their parents. At least in the foreseeable future, the quantity demanded will increase, further exacerbating the situation since supply is barely keeping up as of now. Depending on how fast the Seaport builds out, the entire Seaport would be mainly high end if they catch the wave, or slightly mixed if the economy tail off in the end.

Again, these are macro drivers you're citing. These will persist with our without new development, but without development there will be even higher price pressure and even more displacement.

 

[FK4]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Sorry to keep this thread off-topic, but I feel like this is a healthy, good discussion. Moderators, feel free to move this all if deemed appropriate.





I'm not saying that "only the supply curve shifts", I'm saying that neither curve is shifting (on a somewhat "micro" level, at least; more on that later). Equilibrium in this market is a full build-out of the Seaport. We haven't reached equilibrium yet, due to supply constraints (regulatory constraints, economically inefficient financing, etc.). In equilibrium, no supply sees any advantage to entering a market because profit cannot be had. That is clearly not the case here. Plenty of profit can be had, but constraints are holding supply back. Each building that goes up is not evidence of the supply curve moving, it is evidence of supply constraints being slowly overcome and the market moving towards equilibrium. In EC 101 terms, think of this as a quota being lifted piece-by-piece.



No argument on this, but these are all macro effects that apply to the entire region. They are unrelated to micro questions of building supply and demand.



We largely agree on this, but you foresee much more shifting of the demand curve than I do. You put more focus on new buildings adding new amenities and making the neighborhood more attractive. I put more focus on views getting blocked (pushing down the rent premium) and supply outstripping demand.



Again, these are macro drivers you're citing. These will persist with our without new development, but without development there will be even higher price pressure and even more displacement.

2 things that are missing here - the first, Kent is speaking to, is that the seaport itself is creating increased demand simply thru its own success. it attracts more business and more people. i would hazard that your argument - that the seaport is decreasing demand - is far inferior in terms of influence than the overall increased demand it has created. Also, the blocking of views will do very little to rents. Like, inconsequentially so. People move there now because they want to live in walking distance to boston and be in a hot new neighborhood. nobody is gonna be taking rents to the chopping block when new buildings go up especially because again, more housing and restaurants, in this area, mean it's an even more attractive place to live than before.

Also, the analogy of what's happened to banks in the last decade holds the same for large development companies: small, independent backs have died in droves, while the big banks have survived - this is partly due to the bailout, but largely due to the ability of a huge corporation to sit and wait out the recession while the mom and pops die out every time there's a big correction. Do we, the customers, get much from the BofA's of the world when there's a recession? Not really. Nothing changes. Same thing here - next time there's a recession, sure, maybe some retail will close and rents might be slightly lowered, but until demand seriously falls precipitously, which is highly unlikely in boston, nothing significant is going to change. that goes for fenway and kendall and all the big development areas as well.

 

[whighlander]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

2 things that are missing here - the first, Kent is speaking to, is that the seaport itself is creating increased demand simply thru its own success. it attracts more business and more people. i would hazard that your argument - that the seaport is decreasing demand - is far inferior in terms of influence than the overall increased demand it has created. Also, the blocking of views will do very little to rents. Like, inconsequentially so. People move there now because they want to live in walking distance to boston and be in a hot new neighborhood. nobody is gonna be taking rents to the chopping block when new buildings go up especially because again, more housing and restaurants, in this area, mean it's an even more attractive place to live than before.

Also, the analogy of what's happened to banks in the last decade holds the same for large development companies: small, independent backs have died in droves, while the big banks have survived - this is partly due to the bailout, but largely due to the ability of a huge corporation to sit and wait out the recession while the mom and pops die out every time there's a big correction. Do we, the customers, get much from the BofA's of the world when there's a recession? Not really. Nothing changes. Same thing here - next time there's a recession, sure, maybe some retail will close and rents might be slightly lowered, but until demand seriously falls precipitously, which is highly unlikely in boston, nothing significant is going to change. that goes for fenway and kendall and all the big development areas as well.

FK -- the missing part of your analysis is that you assume only one equilibrium point

The reality is that contrary to Economics 101, 102.. 10X -- the real world is a lot more complex

There is not just one category of renter or buyer [there is a continuum] similarly there are many types of suppliers from people who will let you shack-up with them for a few months to corporations buying "perhaps spaces" for their guests or future employees

All of these are interacting to produce the complete range of buying / renting / crash-padding opportunities] and as the economic breath of the Seaport / Innovation District continues to expand all of the above keeps on changing

That's why Cronin could buy Whiskey Priest and Atlantic Beer Garden [formerly Eastern Pier II/Seaport Bar and Grille] for a few M$ about 10 years ago and now will invest 200 M$ in the new condo project [wouldn't be completely surprised if Cronin didn't take a penthouse in the building]

By the way Cronin also moved his HQ to 250 Northern Ave. and built a 6,00 sq ft central commissary in the Marine Industrial Park to service all of the groups Boston Area Restaurants

All of those Cronin Group employees [2000 overall] need places to have lunch and hoist a few pints of Guinness or Harpoon

 

[purient13]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

So it appears that the proposed 150 Seaport won't have the same angled setback from Seaport Blvd that the current Beer Garden / Whisky Priest bldgs have. Wonder if the owners of Pier 4 feel like chumps for having maintained that angled setback (and ruining any chance at maintaining the urban street-wall continuity, missing out on a great opportunity to design a tower that takes real advantage of its corner lot, and leaving Boston with a sad little windswept plaza & clump of trees masquerading as green-space)

 

[datadyne007]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

So it appears that the proposed 150 Seaport won't have the same angled setback from Seaport Blvd that the current Beer Garden / Whisky Priest bldgs have. Wonder if the owners of Pier 4 feel like chumps for having maintained that angled setback (and ruining any chance at maintaining the urban street-wall continuity, missing out on a great opportunity to design a tower that takes real advantage of its corner lot, and leaving Boston with a sad little windswept plaza & clump of trees masquerading as green-space)

IIRC, Pier 4 was angled like that because the road is supposed to be realigned at some point.

 

[sm89]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

IIRC, Pier 4 was angled like that because the road is supposed to be realigned at some point.

The road is being realigned to square off that intersection (probably about 50% done). There really is no point to the angle that I can see. It follows the former alignment.

 

[JANAM]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

IIRC, Pier 4 was angled like that because the road is supposed to be realigned at some point.

I think Pier 4 was angled like that because of a high voltage line running along the old Northern Ave alignment, it was supposed to be relocated to the new alignment but it could have seriously delayed the project. 150 Seaport appears to cantilever over the line.

 

[datadyne007]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

I think Pier 4 was angled like that because of a high voltage line running along the old Northern Ave alignment, it was supposed to be relocated to the new alignment but it could have seriously delayed the project. 150 Seaport appears to cantilever over the line.

Thanks. A similar reason (underground culvert) accounts for the MassArt Treehouse's enormous setback too. It's easy to criticize things like this when you don't know the full picture. Real life doesn't work like SimCity.

Edit: I found the original answer from you in the Pier 4 thread: http://www.archboston.org/community/showpost.php?p=222841&postcount=556

That corner was lopped off the building because of the NStar line underneath, the cost to move the line was prohibitive.

 

[BeeLine]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

According to Google Earth, the current Whiskey Priest is a little less than 24 feet from Pier 4 wall-to-wall. I think that the current building goes right to the property line.

https://flic.kr/p/BALGx4

 

[DigitalSciGuy]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Just tuning in; love the design.

From the Seaport Boulevard side, it looks like a stumpy glass variation on Turning Torso. I love that it looks like an unfolding fan from the harbour side.

I agree street activation could be waaay better on this one. It feels like the building itself is a beautiful sculpture of a cake lofted on a cake stand and they lazily put a skirt around it.

The ugly doors on the side are actually probably going to be in the very least the loading dock and as someone else alluded to elsewhere, possibly parking. If they are going to be putting in an underground box, it's too bad they couldn't work out designs earlier with the adjacent building to have parking and delivery connect underground and avoid having a blank wall and disrupting the sidewalk with traffic.

 

[found5dollar]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

^ I think the biggest issue in terms of the loading dock or garage entrance is that this plot does not have a back. On two sides we have the harbor walk, which we want activated, one side is the street, which we also want activated, and then the last side buts up against 100 pier 4 with out enough room for a road. If they build out to their property lines there is nowhere to hide a loading dock on this parcel, it has to be on the street side somewhere.

 

[JANAM]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

From BBJ today:

'Separately, the Boston Redevelopment Authority in February will lead a public discussion about updating the South Boston Waterfront District Municipal Harbor Plan. That discussion aims to facilitate the development of a 22-story, 275,000-square-foot residential building planned by Cronin Holdings LLC at 150 Seaport Blvd., currently home to the Atlantic Beer Garden and Whiskey Priest restaurants. That discussion will be held Feb. 3.'

 

[Hutchison]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Some additional renders are in the most recent presentation:

http://www.bostonredevelopmentauthority.org/getattachment/16747964-d48d-409f-a5de-a30b26961a02

 

[dshoost88]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Some additional renders are in the most recent presentation:

http://www.bostonredevelopmentauthority.org/getattachment/16747964-d48d-409f-a5de-a30b26961a02

Thanks! Great presentation.

I had some time to kill this afternoon. Here are some screenshots from the presentation:

150 Seaport Blvd_2 by Derek Shooster, on Flickr

150 Seaport Blvd_3 by Derek Shooster, on Flickr

150 Seaport Blvd_4 by Derek Shooster, on Flickr

150 Seaport Blvd_5 by Derek Shooster, on Flickr

150 Seaport Blvd_6 by Derek Shooster, on Flickr

150 Seaport Blvd_7 by Derek Shooster, on Flickr

150 Seaport Blvd_11 by Derek Shooster, on Flickr

 

[JumboBuc]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

^ Good stuff. But still no views of how the "Back of House / Support" section interacts with the street. I can't help but think that this omission is deliberate.

There appear to be a whole bunch of hurdles (above the Chapter 91 non-compliance) that this one is going to have to clear before becoming a reality. As I read these documents:

- The developer doesn't actually control all of the land that the building is proposed to sit on. The tower has a bigger footprint than the existing buildings, so it'll have to creep a bit onto Massport and Boston property.
- There's no parking.
- There's a significant cantilever over the public sidewalk.

I wish this thing luck in the approval process. It's going to need it.

 

[timsox6]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Hot damn. I hope they let me play in that fountain.

 

[citylover94]

Re: Whiskey Priest/Atlantic Beer Garden Redevelopment | 150 Seaport Blvd | Seaport

Here is the "back" this was released when it was first announced and it seems the design has not had any major changes.