Waterside Place 1A | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

I wonder how long the "friendly competition" will last if these luxury towers continue to have 10% occupancy. Who wants to pay almost $3000/month to live in a neighborhood with no grocery store or amenities besides upscale restaurants? Hopefully this will signal to developers that they need to start building less luxury and more "normal" housing.

They need to build more amenities for sure.. "Normal" housing is probably never going to happen here. Opening up in the winter can't be good for business, either.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

So when does the building boom stop?

To elaborate, The Kensington seems to be filling fairly steadily. But last I heard the Victor was struggling to top 10 percent and now it seems Waterside Place is going to be slow. We have Radian coming online in a few months and AVA Theater Dictrict, Parcel 24, 100 Pier 4, 275 Albany, Ink Block, One Canal, Viridan, and Boylston West at various stages of construction. (Avalon Exeter is a smallish building (187 units) and targeted toward the Back Bay market, so I think they'll be somewhat insulated from the greater market.

And it looks like Skanska is getting ready to start work on Parcel K in the Seaport.

To me the question is a. Will all these projects -notably the ones still in site prep phase - finish?

b. Will some look to shift to condos?

c. Do we really have the bodies to fill all of these units?

d. What happens if these all open in the next two years and they can't get over 10 percent?

I know a lot of people take the stance that developers would be forced to turn away from "Luxury," but my question is how much money is really saved building an average building verses a luxury building? Assuming we still want developers to put up 15, 20, 25-story buildings, how much money can really be saved by using formica counters instead of granite?

I usually don't sound so panicky in my posts, but I'm starting to envision scary images of empty holes and half built sheer cores around the city for the next 3 years.

To make non-luxury units attractive to the developer, they would have to build taller buildings, and have smaller units. Obviously there are regulatory and financial hurdles to building a taller building, which is why we see the developers going towards the low hanging fruit that is the luxury market. You're right that there's just not enough savings by using cheap interior materials.

I'm just hoping that developers will see that the luxury gravy train can't last forever and that they will need to start building units that someone making $50-60k/year can afford to live in.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

Not all the luxury buildings are selling like Millennium Place...

When you can afford to dump 3k a month on a luxury apartment, what difference does one extra month of free rent make? If it's significant than you probably shouldn't be renting there to begin with.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

These rents seem a little pricey for $2,775 for one-bedrooms, and go up to $5,690 for large three-bedrooms.
If they charged cheaper rents the buildings will fill up but the problem is the cost of the buildings to make the mortgage payments that might be the issue.

Anybody know the final cost of this project?

236 Units with a Medium average cost of $4,232.50 a month in rent
=1,001,230 A month
= x12 $12,014,760
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

I wonder if there is any oppurtunity to convert some of this (not seaport specifically) to grad school housing similar to what Harvard did at trilogy? I know it would damage the rest of the building but if you cram 6 people into that 3 bedroom suddenly $900/month ain't terrible for all you get

I don't know how grad student housing is set up these days but it could appeal to internationals.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

When you can afford to dump 3k a month on a luxury apartment, what difference does one extra month of free rent make? If it's significant than you probably shouldn't be renting there to begin with.

A months rent is a months rent. However much you value a month of free rent is about as much as some rich guy does. He pays a lot of money, but its probably a similar proportion of his income to what you pay. People tend to spend 20-30% of income on housing/rent (excluding the very poor who pay more and the very very rich who pay less).

Nobody should have so little savings that one months rent is life altering. If you can't save up a couple months rent for a rainy day, you are spending more than you can afford.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

I wonder if there is any oppurtunity to convert some of this (not seaport specifically) to grad school housing similar to what Harvard did at trilogy? I know it would damage the rest of the building but if you cram 6 people into that 3 bedroom suddenly $900/month ain't terrible for all you get

I don't know how grad student housing is set up these days but it could appeal to internationals.

I don't think graduate student housing means sharing bedrooms. In my experience graduate housing means cheaply constructed apartments with small rooms and crappy furniture. But you get your own bedroom.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

Do you realize how stupid that sounds?

For $3k/month, using the 40% of net income estimate, you're talking about an individual or a couple that grosses around $150k/year. These aren't filthy rich fat cats by any means. Successful, certainly, but hardly rich and hardly in a position to consider $3,000 to be an irrelevant sum.

Ok then. Sorry I made the initial comment as it clearly bothered you. To bring it back on topic, I'm wondering who the target market of this apartment building is supposed to be, cause they don't seem to be finding them.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

Not to veer it off topic but "stupid" to me is spending 3,000$ a month to rent anywhere as a one bedroom in this city when you are only grossing $150k a year, which like you say is by no means rich. That's at least a thousand more than necessary, or 12k a year. That's all I have to say on this. Sorry I made the initial comment as it clearly bothered a couple of you. To bring it back on topic, I'm wondering who the target market of this apartment building is supposed to be, cause they don't seem to be finding them.

The Target market is basically the Rich. Rich kids from other countries going to school in the city. Mostly Young professionals that need to live near the city for their jobs that upcoming in their workplace.

For 3000 a month you can rent a 5 bedroom near Davis Square.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

For 3000 a month you can rent a 5 bedroom near Davis Square.

Anybody paying 3000 a month for a 5 bedroom near Davis Square is getting a really good deal.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

So when does the building boom stop?

To elaborate, The Kensington seems to be filling fairly steadily. But last I heard the Victor was struggling to top 10 percent and now it seems Waterside Place is going to be slow. We have Radian coming online in a few months and AVA Theater Dictrict, Parcel 24, 100 Pier 4, 275 Albany, Ink Block, One Canal, Viridan, and Boylston West at various stages of construction. (Avalon Exeter is a smallish building (187 units) and targeted toward the Back Bay market, so I think they'll be somewhat insulated from the greater market.

And it looks like Skanska is getting ready to start work on Parcel K in the Seaport.

To me the question is a. Will all these projects -notably the ones still in site prep phase - finish?

b. Will some look to shift to condos?

c. Do we really have the bodies to fill all of these units?

d. What happens if these all open in the next two years and they can't get over 10 percent?

I know a lot of people take the stance that developers would be forced to turn away from "Luxury," but my question is how much money is really saved building an average building verses a luxury building? Assuming we still want developers to put up 15, 20, 25-story buildings, how much money can really be saved by using formica counters instead of granite?

I usually don't sound so panicky in my posts, but I'm starting to envision scary images of empty holes and half built sheer cores around the city for the next 3 years.

The conversion to condo is starting, but slowly. Part of Ink Block changed over to condo before construction started. Second phase of One Greenway (parcel 24) is condo... Developers are starting to get the message.

There is always a lag, because the financing sources always seem delayed behind the market. They never seem able to anticipate (or count for that matter -- "gee there seem to be a lot of luxury apartment buildings we funded at the same time").
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

To the people that are saying we're building too many luxury buildings right now, I'm calling B.S. The reality is that there is a dire shortage of affordable housing in this city--especially for the middle class--and these "luxury buildings" (i.e. The Kensington, 315 on A, Waterside, Place, Victor, etc.) are very much in line with the types of high density towers that have been built in other cities around the country over the last 10+ years... the main difference is that it costs closer to $1,500/mo and $2,000/mo in those cities than the $2,800+/mo that Bostonians would have to pay to live in them.

Frankly, I thought The Kensington was WAY too aggressive when they opened up asking for $3,000/mo to move in. They eventually had their "1 month+ free rent" and went on to reduce their cheapest units closer to $2,800/mo + deals. I work in real estate and study this market very thoroughly. They should have put their units on the market starting closer to $2,300-$2,500/mo and leasing would have been more brisk.

I've toured Kensington and Waterside Place. They can and should be charging similar rents, and Waterside in particular should've aimed closer to $2,200/mo. That would've had the most noticeable impact on affordability around Boston. I personally think it's a sign of weakness if they start with higher prices and then quietly trickle the rents down like they seem to be doing. Get the building 85% rented with 1-year contracts and then start incrementally raising the rents annually as necessary (if necessary).
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

To the people that are saying we're building too many luxury buildings right now, I'm calling B.S. The reality is that there is a dire shortage of affordable housing in this city--especially for the middle class--and these "luxury buildings" (i.e. The Kensington, 315 on A, Waterside, Place, Victor, etc.) are very much in line with the types of high density towers that have been built in other cities around the country over the last 10+ years... the main difference is that it costs closer to $1,500/mo and $2,000/mo in those cities than the $2,800+/mo that Bostonians would have to pay to live in them.

Frankly, I thought The Kensington was WAY too aggressive when they opened up asking for $3,000/mo to move in. They eventually had their "1 month+ free rent" and went on to reduce their cheapest units closer to $2,800/mo + deals. I work in real estate and study this market very thoroughly. They should have put their units on the market starting closer to $2,300-$2,500/mo and leasing would have been more brisk.

I've toured Kensington and Waterside Place. They can and should be charging similar rents, and Waterside in particular should've aimed closer to $2,200/mo. That would've had the most noticeable impact on affordability around Boston. I personally think it's a sign of weakness if they start with higher prices and then quietly trickle the rents down like they seem to be doing. Get the building 85% rented with 1-year contracts and then start incrementally raising the rents annually as necessary (if necessary).

Don't your last two paragraphs contradict your first one? If these luxury towers have to lower their rent to fill up then that means there are too many on the market right now. I agree with what you said about the sweet spot being around $2200, as that means people making $80-90k can afford it as opposed to people making $150k. There are way more people making the former rather than the latter.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

3k to 2.2 k is a 25% decrease in rent, that's a huge difference in both affordability for people and lost revenue for developers.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

Too Many luxury apartments is a stupid comment. It all comes down to supply and demand in Location.

two family houses in Somerville were considered cheap rents for a blue collared neighborhood back in the 80's. Now you can't even get an apartment in Davis Square for under 2,400.

Bottom Line: The more apartments they build (Supply & Demand) the more prices will come down. Let the markets determine which buildings are luxury in the end.

BRA has kept Boston from actually developing more apartments in a good solid location through the entire bureaucratic process which continues to make LAND value priceless. Especially since the colleges ended up buying out all the neighborhoods around them for massive expansion. That is one of the main reasons for rents that have skyrocketed in Boston.
 
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Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

3k to 2.2 k is a 25% decrease in rent, that's a huge difference in both affordability for people and lost revenue for developers.

If they lowered prices by 25%, they'd have to rent out 25% more units to get the same cash flow. Right now they've only rented 10%, which I'm sure will go up, but who knows how many they'd have rented if prices were 25% lower? I could see it being 30-40% occupancy, in which case, they would be making way more money than they are right now.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

There is some Marketing 101 operating here.

No one ever wins with a mid-price strategy -- it is the kiss of death.

You can win if you are the lowest cost, and can offer the most affordable, commodity product.

You can also win if you are a luxury brand, and offer products at a premium price point. You can even win in this category if you end up discounting the luxury product (people love "deals" off list price). You just have to be careful about your brand image (and keep up the list price ruse, it is part of your "luxury" signal).

No one really shops for the mid priced product. It is a marketing dead zone. Come in high and lower the price (as needed), or come in at the bottom and sweep up all the bottom feeders.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

The conversion to condo is starting, but slowly. Part of Ink Block changed over to condo before construction started. Second phase of One Greenway (parcel 24) is condo... Developers are starting to get the message.

There is always a lag, because the financing sources always seem delayed behind the market. They never seem able to anticipate (or count for that matter -- "gee there seem to be a lot of luxury apartment buildings we funded at the same time").

Perhaps the seeming slow rate of leasing (not sure how slow it really is for Waterside Place since it literally just opened a week or so ago) can be explained in part by the fact that it is February and it's been snowing a lot. And also, wouldn't the average person prefer to move from their existing digs once their lease is up, as opposed to breaking their lease and being on the hook for unoccupied months or the delta between what new lessee is paying and what old lessee was paying through the end of the broken lease, which is the law in Massachusetts?

For the Seaport at least, don't forget that Vertex just opened and PwC, Goodwin Proctor and a few VC firms moving to the initial fan pier building aren't there yet. Among them we are talking about 1000s of white-collar jobs, many of which paying well over $100K in salary. A first year attorney at a large firm takes home $160K in salary. GP probably hires 50+ new attorneys a year. I can't even imagine what the VCs pay new people. And both PwC and GP are currently 10-15 minute walks or so from Waterside Place.

My guess is that none of these apartment buildings are projecting to be full until 12-14 months from opening day. If the Victor, 315A, Kensington and Waterside Place aren't close to being full by January 2015 then I think developers will figure they have over-read the market for luxury apartments and a lot of places will choose to go condo. With baby boomers downsizing and taking a hard look at urban life for at least a period of their retirement, I will frankly be surprised if buildings like Pier 4 don't end up as condos from day 1.

A few years ago I went to a Seaport Square Parcel A & B community meeting and Tom Hynes let it slip that the buildings were going to be built "condo-quality" to allow for flexibility to go condo if the market was leaning that way. I'm sure he isn't the only developer with such plans.
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

Don't your last two paragraphs contradict your first one? If these luxury towers have to lower their rent to fill up then that means there are too many on the market right now. I agree with what you said about the sweet spot being around $2200, as that means people making $80-90k can afford it as opposed to people making $150k. There are way more people making the former rather than the latter.

There was a story on WBZ-4 News this AM that a whole lot of City and State Employees are in the $100k + range with a surprising number [many who are cops or fire fighters] North of $200k

Two points:
1) a huge excess of $ being sucked out of the private sector and transferred to government -- don't forget that gov't folks are some of the last of the defined benefit pensions plans and the "Cadillac Health Care" plans for both active workers and the retirees
2) the power of governmental workers' unions to hold the taxpayers hostage

This should be a warning to us -- Boston and Massachusetts could easily go the way of Chicago and Illinois respectively
 
Re: Waterside Place | 505 Congress Street | Seaport

This should be a warning to us -- Boston and Massachusetts could easily go the way of Chicago and Illinois respectively

We are already heading that path. People are to stupid to realize it.

The only people that are benefiting from all this taxpayers printed money are
Muni-unions==Votes
The politically connected Businessmen who fund our leaders elections with the amount of tax breaks & incentives they get from the taxpayers

What about the poor working class citizen that has a family working for 15bucks an hour at Stop N Shop he can't barely feed his family because of this GREEDY scenario up above.

In reality this COUNTRY IS DEAD BROKE.
Detroit==Bankrupt (the only American people left in Detroit are the ones that couldn't afford to get out)
Puerto Rico=DEBT just got downgraded to JUNK
Illinois-Cali-NJ--Will probably be the first to fall

the only thing keeping this Ponzi scheme together is the private Federal Reserve bank with their 0% interest rate program, QE programs that continue to destroy the buying power of the working class.
 

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