F-Line to Dudley
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Not to be really nit-picky and argumentative, but isn't the Surfliner fleet (as opposed to the California Cars) partially owned by Amtrak and partially owned by Caltrans?
As far as the Midwest bilevels, there have been whispers that WI will move forward with re-equipping the Hiawatha trainsets with bilevels, which I imagine would require exercising some of the options. And MN/WI are currently examining an additional train CHI-MKE-MSP, which could mean additional bilevels as well. Now, whether the WI legislature will go along with funding those purchases...
It's complicated because LOSSAN, the amalgamation of 9 regional transit agencies covering San Diego to L.A. to San Luis Obispo has a % share too splitting the vote, isn't subservient to Caltrans, and money gets exchanged round-and-round-they-go between all parties on this contract. My head started to hurt reading up on it.
In short. . .
-- Amtrak has the upper hand on ownership.
-- Caltran and LOSSAN pay a very unfavorable rate vs. a 'clean' buy of the new cars, and so the state is dead-set on scooping up every single new unit it can get and has already structurally approved the funding conduit of that.
-- They're scheming to get the Coast Daylight (first) going sooner than later if Union Pacific stops being a dick about freight slots, then hopefully advance the San Joaquin's extension and the Coachella.
-- That's their leverage play for round-and-round-they-go getting the Surfliners to land back in their control, so sending them back to Amtrak is a transactional ploy.
-- If they get stuffed on any of these routes (I'd wager Daylight's got the current head of steam, Coachella doesn't, San Joaquin extension somewhere in between) then Amtrak putting them back in the national pool limits the state's liability vs. holding onto a glut of cars it may not need, so that suits Caltrans' risk mgt. comfort level.
It's transactional chess at its most arcane, but both Amtrak and Caltrans are getting something good in the deal so they gladly do the kabuki dance. And they are well-inoculated enough for still getting the options drained if one of the flaky Midwest buyers drops out so long as it doesn't become a bloc of >1. Because they do use vanilla Superliners on some corridor routes. They don't like to, but as long as it's just the Hiawatha that's a lot less than they currently use and the national/LD pool stays flush. It's if the Midwest bails on most/all of the options where they're going to be stuck keeping those godawful Horizons with their harsh lighting, manual doors that stick in cold weather, and malfunctioning restroom plumbing in service in constant spot rotation. They'd much rather mothball them year-round and only pull them out a couple weeks per year for handling the crush-load holiday extras on the East Coast like Thanksgiving/Xmas rush.