Boston 2024

[coleslaw]

That's an interesting way of looking at the value/potential value of Gillette. I never thought about that. Yeah, maybe they think a joint Revs/Pats stadium downtown would be like Century Link is Seattle? The Sounders manage to sell it out.

Easy response would be "there Is a different soccer culture over there." However I don't think this idea grasp the complexities of fandom, especially in Boston. We are fickle we do not put up with being given an inferior product, we broke our sellout streak in Fenway in 2013 after a year of sucking, Celtics started selling out with the big three then stopped when they started sucking again, and the bruins have been selling out since they have become contenders again.

The revs were doing reasonably well in the MLS despite their location when they had Dempsey, Twellman, and Noonan, and Joseph, and Ralston in terms of ticket sales. We were damn good and damn unlucky then. however there was a big slump in performance for a few years, they seem to be back now though! And when a team in a league that is building is both underperforming and out of the way it is not going to sell tickets.

I don't think the Revs would be able to sell out a massive stadium right now even if they moved into the stadium. They would definitely sell more but they would not sell out 50,000+ seats right away, they simply do not have the recognition. Seeing them play in a half (or more) empty stadium, in the city, would only make people less likely to support them (as they would appear to be losers).

When Brazil or Spain come to Gillette the stadium sells out, there is a market for soccer, quality soccer, here it just needs to be built the right way. One way to do it, that lends legitimacy, is to give them their own stadium where they can play on grass the way the game should be played (Gillette has to put down grass when national teams come to town), and to never have to play with football lines on the field again (that still happens sometimes), note the Pats never play with soccer lines.

Give the revs Their own stadium do not force them to play in an oversized stadium as a second team again just in a better location. It might help sell more seats than Gillette but not enough to give them their own real vibrant fan base.

 

[Equilibria]

I disagree. It is hard to say that the value of Patriot Place is in 8 home games per year, and not the 357 days that it's open as a mall. As far as I can tell, the synergies are mostly in the roads and parking, not in some magical aura cast by 8 home games per year.

I think that's an overly rosy assessment. Patriot Place's "mall" consists of a strip of bars, restaurants and outlet stores. The outlets might get some traffic without the stadium, and the big boxes surely would, but I doubt CBS Scene would.

FWIW, it's not only 8 games per year, it's anything the Pats do at the stadium. That includes three full weeks of practices over the summer, preseason games, special events, the HoF, and the pro shop. It's also the sports injury hospital and boutique hotel used by visiting teams and sports writers.

And yes, the "magic aura" is a real thing. I don't think I'm atypical among area residents in that I only go there for Patriots stuff. Maybe the place would keep getting traffic from the immediate area without the team, but it's hard for me to see how even near 128 people would go there over Legacy Place and Westwood Station, with which PP directly competes.

If anything, Patriot Place proves that Kraft knows the value of destinations, not the value of stadiums. If Foxboro gets transit (CR), it will be more valuable as a "town center" development" for the 280 working days of the year (as an office park) than for the 8 home-game days (football) per year.

So by 2025, Gillette could be torn down on its 23rd birthday in favor of transit-oriented / Town Center (Tyson's Corner) style development, and the Pats could move to Olympic Stadium, and Kraft could fund it in part from Patriots Place and in part from ancillary development rights in "Downtown South"

That's just the point. Bob Kraft has a lot invested in PP as a destination, and he's not going to throw that out the window by moving the team anywhere else. He has plenty of parking lots to build any new stadium he wants on in 2030.

There's no way that a commuter rail station that sees 8 trains a day makes something a "Town Center." There's no Renton or Tyson's Corner coming there, especially since Foxborough would oppose any residential component.

Meanwhile, look at the option Kraft has without the Pats in Downtown. All he has to invest is some seed money for land acquisition, and he gets the "Downtown South" development anyway. No land wasted on a stadium, so he can just develop all of it. That development is worth the same with or without a team there (just look at The Boston Garden's two decade saga for how much proximity to a sports team drives development in a city).

Assuming this is a free choice for Kraft, his options are:

1) A sleepy regional big box store center with some adjacent outlets next to a lightly-served commuter rail station, plus a dense multi-use development with a bunch of bars and restaurants next to his new, $1.5B football stadium, or

2) A hub of high-rent restaurants and bars with a boutique hotel, anchored by a $800M stadium, possibly with some additional phases in the future, along with a mixed-use development branded with the Olympics that's twice as large, right next to Downtown and linked to transit by an "Olympic Boulevard" legacy project.

He'll go with 2 every time.

 

[datadyne007]

Easy response would be "there Is a different soccer culture over there." However I don't think this idea grasp the complexities of fandom, especially in Boston. We are fickle we do not put up with being given an inferior product, we broke our sellout streak in Fenway in 2013 after a year of sucking, Celtics started selling out with the big three then stopped when they started sucking again, and the bruins have been selling out since they have become contenders again.

The revs were doing reasonably well in the MLS despite their location when they had Dempsey, Twellman, and Noonan, and Joseph, and Ralston in terms of ticket sales. We were damn good and damn unlucky then. however there was a big slump in performance for a few years, they seem to be back now though! And when a team in a league that is building is both underperforming and out of the way it is not going to sell tickets.

I don't think the Revs would be able to sell out a massive stadium right now even if they moved into the stadium. They would definitely sell more but they would not sell out 50,000+ seats right away, they simply do not have the recognition. Seeing them play in a half (or more) empty stadium, in the city, would only make people less likely to support them (as they would appear to be losers).

When Brazil or Spain come to Gillette the stadium sells out, there is a market for soccer, quality soccer, here it just needs to be built the right way. One way to do it, that lends legitimacy, is to give them their own stadium where they can play on grass the way the game should be played (Gillette has to put down grass when national teams come to town), and to never have to play with football lines on the field again (that still happens sometimes), note the Pats never play with soccer lines.

Give the revs Their own stadium do not force them to play in an oversized stadium as a second team again just in a better location. It might help sell more seats than Gillette but not enough to give them their own real vibrant fan base.

It is worth noting that the Revs Prez yesterday announced that ticket sales for tomorrow's final regular season game are likely to exceed 30,000. This isn't even for a playoff position. We already have #2. These fan numbers are for just pure interest in the Revs and keeping the momentum up as we head into the playoffs. Wicked impressive. This is a very rare time where I'm grateful we have Gillette. I can't wait. The tide on soccer in New England is turning.

https://twitter.com/RevsPrez/status/525399448281960448

 

[George_Apley]

What's the IOC reasoning for only allowing TV revenue to fund temporary structures? Just because those structures are cheaper? Seems a waste to force cities to build venues only to demolish them, if the city does have teams that could use their own space (Revs...). Obviously it makes sense for some applicant cities to build temporary structures so that they don't have mega stadiums that sit unused, but it should be an option to fund temp structures, not a mandated rule.

 

[coleslaw]

It is worth noting that the Revs Prez yesterday announced that ticket sales for tomorrow's final regular season game are likely to exceed 30,000. This isn't even for a playoff position. We already have #2. These fan numbers are for just pure interest in the Revs. Wicked impressive. This is a very rare time where I'm grateful we have Gillette. I can't wait. The tide on soccer in New England is turning.

https://twitter.com/RevsPrez/status/525399448281960448

Fantastic, thats all I can say about that, but imagine how many would be going if they could get there on the T.

 

[Arlington]

I think that's an overly rosy assessment. Patriot Place's "mall" consists of a strip of bars, restaurants and outlet stores. The outlets might get some traffic without the stadium, and the big boxes surely would, but I doubt CBS Scene would.

Who cares? CBS Scene is a pimple on a pimple in the grand real-estate scheme of things. Is Kraft going to turn down a downtown football-soccer venue--called Gillettte Olympic Stadium (I don't see how Gillette Corporate fails to be high bidder on a stadium you can *see* from their HQ) and related office developments because he's worried about foot traffic at CBS Scene on an handful of days per year? No way.

Foxboro is going to give Kraft the Patriots Town Center Master Plan he wants because they need the jobs and taxes when the stadium moves. And Kraft'll bulldoze the (by then fully-depreciated) stadium rather than keep paying taxes on it.

Or Kraft will move only the Revs to Willett Cir.

But in no case is Kraft going to let the long-sunk costs of a stadium from 2002, or the chance that CBS Scene will close--drive his decision making about where his $2-billion-dollar Football franchise and (by then) Billion-dollar soccer franchise play. The teams and the *location* of his real estate are valuable things, the buildings (stadium or retail) will come and go on a generational cycle.

A Willett Circle location is golden for any stadium and Kraft will want to own it. Red Line. Indigo Line. I-93 @ I-90. Minutes away from fatcat corporate box buyers and their clients Back Bay, FiDi, Seaport. Amtrak and Airport (corporate jets) too. A hotel at Patriot's Place is nice, but one at Olympic Place is better.

He'll think of a way for follks to spend the hour (or two) they save in round-trip distance by spending some $ in a whole new city-center Olympic district. That'd kill versus anything he'd have at Patriot's Place.

 

[underground]

I wonder if Kraft wasn't always planning on building a stadium for the Pats and/or Revs at Widett regardless of the Olympics. There were quotes a few months ago along the lines of Somerville and Revere being definitely out, and Walsh saying he had discussions about a Boston location. At the time, it seemed like more Kraft dog and pony show about a soccer stadium, but maybe there was real meat behind it (AKA this plan).

 

[Equilibria]

Who cares? CBS Scene is a pimple on a pimple in the grand real-estate scheme of things. Is Kraft going to turn down a downtown football-soccer venue--called Gillettte Olympic Stadium (I don't see how Gillette Corporate fails to be high bidder on a stadium you can *see* from their HQ) and related office developments because he's worried about foot traffic at CBS Scene on an handful of days per year? No way.

CBS Scene is an example, and really it's not the important part. The important question is: assuming that Bob Kraft is the developer Boston 2024 is working with, is Widett worth more as an NFL stadium or as a bunch of 350' mixed-use towers with the cachet of being called 'Olympic Park'? The follow up question is: "Does an NFL/MLS stadium do anything to enhance the value of the adjacent land for development, and if so, does that increase in value represent a greater benefit than:

- The Widett land's inherent value for development once cleared, made accessible, and used as the site of an Olympic stadium;

- The higher costs of building a stadium in Boston. Remember, the income from the stadium itself is Kraft's wherever he puts it. It's a wash. Plus, it's cheaper to build a stadium in Foxboro in numerous ways and he can build exactly what he wants when he wants it instead of converting a stadium built for a different use under tight time constraints; and

- The massive decrease in value of the Foxboro land, developed or not...

All put together. I posit that it does not. Not even close.

 

[Arlington]

Take *any* corresponding use (except parking) from Foxboro and transplant it to Willett Cir and it gets *way* more valuable. Freakishly moreso. Especially if it becomes another Prudential work-shop-entertain center. To the revenue from gameday tickets, Kraft can power a lot more gameday "festival" activities where he'll own the venue (rather than tailgating, which he doesn't own).

More reasons to host events there if it is that easy to get to from downtown's big money and take a Black Car home to wherever that big house is that you bought with your downtown money.

The idea that a stadium that's mostly-empty is powering Patriot's Place is absurd. Metro growth and themed venues power Patriot's Place, and a stadium can be swapped out for either more retail ("Mall of America" style) or transit oriented Office-Residential

Yes, CR might only have 12 trains per day, but they'll be every day, all year. Heck, he can even run a shuttle to Willett Cir from there.

 

[Equilibria]

Take *any* corresponding use (except parking) from Foxboro and transplant it to Willett Cir and it gets *way* more valuable. Freakishly moreso. Especially if it becomes another Prudential work-shop-entertain center. To the revenue from gameday tickets, Kraft can power a lot more gameday "festival" activities where he'll own the venue (rather than tailgating, which he doesn't own).

More reasons to host events there if it is that easy to get to from downtown's big money and take a Black Car home to wherever that big house is that you bought with your downtown money.

Not any use. Restaurants? Yes. Retail? Yes. A football stadium? No. This argument has been done to death to the tune of many shots in another thread, but NFL stadiums are simply awful uses of Downtown land. Please show me an example of a Downtown stadium where there are "festival" uses more than 8-10 days per year. Chicago? Baltimore? Pittsburgh hosts college ball, but even then its only 6 additional dates. I've lived in Chicago, and I can tell you that Soldier Field looks so enormous and empty most of the time that it's sort of creepy.

In any case, you're making my argument for me. Indeed, most uses at Patriot Place get more valuable at Widett. That's why he should build that stuff there and not a stadium that wouldn't get much more business than the one he already built and paid for.

The idea that a stadium that's mostly-empty is powering Patriot's Place is absurd. Metro growth and themed venues power Patriot's Place, and a stadium can be swapped out for either more retail ("Mall of America" style) or transit oriented Office-Residential

Yes, CR might only have 12 trains per day, but they'll be every day, all year. Heck, he can even run a shuttle to Willett Cir from there.

Which is it? Is a mostly empty stadium not powering Patriot Place, or will it power Widett Circle? You can't have both. Actually, maybe you can, because I'm arguing the opposite.

The stadium is powering Patriot Place because without it as a catalyst there is not one thing making that development any better than the other lifestyle centers on I-95. It's absurd to me that you're looking at a development whose commercial and institutional anchors are a three-story sports bar, the Patriots HoF, and a sports injury clinic, located in the middle of absolute nowhere with zero highway visibility, and telling me that it works without the NFL.

 

[Arlington]

I'm not contending that the Stadium powers any location. I'm saying the location (Boston or Foxboro) powers the Stadium, and downtown--particularly a rich, accessible, downtown such as Boston has, will power any stadium better.

I'm also contending that the location, not the stadium, powers all the other stuff too.

So if you're Kraft, Patriot Town Center works as a themed leisure destination that TOD can be piled on to in 2024 with or without a stadium, but if somebody also offers you Patriot Olympic Downtown South as an incentive to build a Downtown/Olympic Stadium, heck yes, you take the platform of new, downtown land and build a Pru Center on it.

It's stadium construction powered by land grab, what's not to love if you're Kraft?

 

[Equilibria]

So if you're Kraft, Patriot Town Center works as a themed leisure destination that TOD can be piled on to in 2024 with or without a stadium, but if somebody also offers you Patriot Olympic Downtown South as an incentive to build a Downtown/Olympic Stadium, heck yes, you take the platform of new, downtown land and build a Pru Center on it.

Yes, except that no one needs you to build the stadium. They're offering him development rights to those parcels in exchange for getting the land and getting it ready. Then NBC pays for the stadium, he pays to tear it down, and he can build his Pru Center on the land, no deck needed.

Kraft is acting as a normal developer here, not as an NFL owner. Samuels, Hynes, or anyone else could do this just as easily, and just as profitably.

 

[choo]

Ya, there seems to be little marginal value that Kraft gets from paying to put a stadium downtown. It's very profitable in Foxboro plus a whole commercial residential district in Boston is another money printer. If the Pats move to Boston, how much more money does he actually make versus Foxboro? The Pats have saturated the market in terms of what fans spend, they have sold out every game, they have corporate sponsorships everywhere. What's the marginal value?

But get development rights in a city with housing and commercial shortages running out, just start building towers and selling condos plus have your teams in Foxboro and continue to grow that area.

Also, Gillette was built much better than the original. It is 15 years old, but still looks brand new. I think a Patriots gameday experience downtown where you can't tailgate is actually a much diminished gameday experience compared to the current. For the revolution, it actually enhances the feel and accessibility for most fans, but the Patriots do not have that problem.

 

[Shepard]

Is Kraft somehow automatically the developer? This doesn't go out to bid?!

 

[Equilibria]

Is Kraft somehow automatically the developer? This doesn't go out to bid?!

Nope. Boston 2024 is currently (I think) a state-funded exploratory committee, but it will ultimately be an independent non-profit funded through private donations. They can make the decision based on whatever they want.

 

[Arlington]

Then NBC pays for the stadium, he pays to tear it down, and he can build his Pru Center on the land, no deck needed.

Why would Kraft, the guy who could always use a free new stadium, particularly in a better location, tear it down? The tradition has been to turn Olympic stadiums into soccer stadiums (similar field dimension).

The extra value he gets by keeping the stadium (rather than tearing it down, short term, like any other developer would) is why he'll be the high bidder (or could afford to be) when it gets put out to bid.

In the long run, Kraft will behave like any developer, yes, and the stadium--like 99% of all stadiums--will get torn down and replaced by a better & higher use. But in the short run, he'd get is central soccer-specific stadium.

 

[underground]

All things being equal, moving the Pats downtown and redeveloping Gillette or redeveloping the Olympic Stadium into Pru 2.0 are both good options for Kraft. We're arguing about whether it's better to have a license to print money or to have a tree that grows money. And all this is of course wicked hypothetical.

 

[ErnieAdams]

We're arguing about whether it's better to have a license to print money or to have a tree that grows money.

 

[Arlington]

And all this is of course wicked hypothetical.

Yes but it is a key issue for whether the Olympics pay for themselves: how to pay for the 1 venue we *know* we have to build but we fear we'll have no use for after: the Olympic Stadium itself.

If the Olympic Committee has the agreements in place, NBC will $1B pay to build the stadium *and* Kraft will pay a "soccer reuse" premium to take it off their hands. Recouping that $ in a sale to Kraft (call it $400m) would amount to funding 10% of the committee's estimated $4b budget. That's a big "gating issue".

It will be played out on smaller venues too, like finding someone who needs an actual swimming venue and not just the assembled parcel under it, but the Stadium in The Big One.

 

[HenryAlan]

2) A hub of high-rent restaurants and bars with a boutique hotel, anchored by a $800M stadium, possibly with some additional phases in the future, along with a mixed-use development branded with the Olympics that's twice as large, right next to Downtown and linked to transit by an "Olympic Boulevard" legacy project.

He'll go with 2 every time.

Agreed. I can't see how he gets anything he doesn't have now from a downtown stadium. And while Patriot Place might survive on its own, it is arguably stronger with the adjacent stadium. An Olympic Yards development, on the other hand, will make him a ton of money, without needing the stadium as an anchor.