General MBTA Topics (Multi Modal, Budget, MassDOT)

[Delvin4519]

The press conference regarding the system wide 10-25 MPH restriction seems to have been delayed. It was for 10am standard time, but it's quarter past now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634209564085088257

 

[jklo]

Some of the big employers whose workers are impacted by the T mess should consider a class action lawsuit for fraud. Force the Commonwealth to clean house at the T.

The State could use this as an excuse to shake up T management... but there's only so much they can do if the workers don't give a sheet.

 

[Riverside]

And, not to be overlooked, but a piece of construction equipment fell over on to the tracks at Milton.

Photos show construction equipment toppled over on MBTA tracks

The equipment was part of a controversial demolition project that began earlier this week.

www.wcvb.com

I have further thoughts that I guess I’ll save til after the presser (whenever that ends up being), but this incident at Milton also seems emblematic of a truly systemic problem.

 

[samcat116]

Would the Governor declaring some sort of state of emergency in regards to transit help at all? I'm not sure if theres even anything that could be done to fix things faster. Do we even have enough qualified rail contractors if we threw money at the problem?

 

[Riverside]

Reports on Twitter that the additional speed restrictions have been lifted on the heavy rail lines. The emerging interpretation of comments made at the apparently-largely-uninformative press conference is that there were apparent discrepancies between records (of maintenance and/or condition) and actual work/condition, raising question about the integrity of reports across the system.

EDIT: Video link here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634213820867440644

 

[Equilibria]

Would the Governor declaring some sort of state of emergency in regards to transit help at all? I'm not sure if theres even anything that could be done to fix things faster. Do we even have enough qualified rail contractors if we threw money at the problem?

I'm not sure quite what the mechanism is, but there's been an expectation that FTA will effectively take over the MBTA at some point. Seems appropriate, and the Governor could request it.

For oversight, there also needs to be Legislative action to reverse the stupid decision from a couple of years ago to gut the FMCB. Things started going sideways the moment it went away at the MBTA's request.

Reports on Twitter that the additional speed restrictions have been lifted on the heavy rail lines. The emerging interpretation of comments made at the apparently-largely-uninformative press conference is that there were apparent discrepancies between records (of maintenance and/or condition) and actual work/condition, raising question about the integrity of reports across the system.

EDIT: Video link here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634213820867440644

Translation: They did inspections and either lost or failed to fill out the paperwork.

Put a little differently...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634218074969604098

 

[Riverside]

Yeah I just watched the first ~8 minutes of the recording now. I actually think this is somewhat informative, albeit not presented with the most transparent tone.

Translation: They did inspections and either lost or failed to fill out the paperwork.

From what I heard in his remarks, I'm not actually sure we know for certain the inspections were done. He spoke about "after having reviewed the quality of that I documentation, I made the decision [to impose the speed restrictions]", which suggests that in at least one case the documentation did exist but was somehow concerning. Obviously we don't know why it was concerning, but what I heard did not seem to rule out the possibility that the inspections weren't done, or were done improperly.

Also, in a bit of "burying the lede", he said that the system-wide speed restrictions are lifted on the Blue, Red, and Orange... but that new slow zones have been implemented wherever there is question about the inspection documentation. I missed the last few questions in the Q&A, but that seems like a pretty big caveat -- I guess the data over the next couple of days will reveal where those new slow zones are, and from there we can infer how many inspection sites were questioned.

EDIT: Chris Friend finds ~30min of new slow zones on the Red Line and ~23 min on the Orange Line:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634228632276049920

 

[Brick Top]

No pix or anything fun to support this, but I took the Green Line from Union to Government Center (and, many hours later, back) and it was excellent, across the board. Zero (under 5 minutes) wait in both directions, no weird stops or misleading signage/announcements; yeah, inbound over the highest part from Union to Lechmere (across from Twin City Plaza) it slowed down for a bit, but nothing major or long-lasting. People who whine and moan about the T should really travel to other places more often. NYC, San Fran, Chicago (and plenty other places) would be stoked to have rapid transit this good.

The MBTA is able to get away with such abysmal performance because they've gaslit even the transit-savvy posters on this board into thinking that their service is something to be "stoked" about.

 

[chrisbrat]

The MBTA is able to get away with such abysmal performance because they've gaslit even the transit-savvy posters on this board into thinking that their service is something to be "stoked" about.

That, or it's possible to appreciate what you have, while acknowleding that improvements can, and should, be made.

I don't feel I've been gaslit by the T or anyone; I just prefer to enjoy the resources available to me. In fact, once I take the dog out for a quick walk, I'll be hopping on the Green Line and heading into DTX for a few hours and then returning by the same method. Just as I've done three times already this week. I enjoyed those trips and I'm looking forward to today's.

 

[hipster_garbage]

Thanks! I’ll be pedantic, but the specification was for 40 mph — I’m more curious about what the actual conditions/speeds have been lately.

I've used a GPS speedometer a few times when I've ridden it to/from work. It's consistently 40 mph between stations from East Somerville to Medford/Tufts. Even as of Wednesday when I last rode it.

 

[Riverside]

I've used a GPS speedometer a few times when I've ridden it to/from work. It's consistently 40 mph between stations from East Somerville to Medford/Tufts. Even as of Wednesday when I last rode it.

Wow, so yeah. This is gonna be rough.

 

[hipster_garbage]

Wow, so yeah. This is gonna be rough.

It's gonna at least double the time on the branch, probably won't make that big of a difference in the downtown tunnels since they don't seem to get above 25 ever anyway. I think I'm just gonna go back to cycling in unless the weather is truly hellish. It's the fastest way into the city anyway.

 

[Delvin4519]

It's gonna at least double the time on the branch, probably won't make that big of a difference in the downtown tunnels since they don't seem to get above 25 ever anyway. I think I'm just gonna go back to cycling in unless the weather is truly hellish. It's the fastest way into the city anyway.

The D branch went from 26 minutes between Kenmore and Riverside to 52 minutes. Basically double the time.

13 minutes between Reservior and Riverside is now 27 minutes.

 

[RandomWalk]

If the root cause is documentation around repairs, why is the GLX impacted? It’s brand new, so the documentation should be much lighter than the core subway.

 

[Delvin4519]

Detailed breakdown between Riverside and Kenmore on the D branch, as the largest stretch of 40 and 50 MPH track. I used the fastest trip on March 7th - 8th, vs. the slowest trip today, hence therefore it is unaggregated data.

Sourced data from here: https://dashboard.transitmatters.org/rapidtransit

The data is a bit messy, so yeah, I might update it later today, I went through each stop pair on TransitMatters and inputted it into a table.

The D Branch is over double the travel time for almost every pair of stops. (EDIT 3/11 - UPDATED with full day of data)

 

[Riverside]

If the root cause is documentation around repairs, why is the GLX impacted? It’s brand new, so the documentation should be much lighter than the core subway.

I mean, I dunno how often these inspections are made, but probably the only inspection report that "matters" is the most recent one. So if the inspection is supposed to be every 2 months (for example), that would be enough potentially to impact even though that section is very new. But also, it sounds like the "systemwide" restrictions still in place on the LRT lines probably are more reflective of a paperwork/organizational thing while they continue their investigation.

 

[stefal]

What is the logic in dissolving the MBTA? What would be different in the new org that replaces the 6,000 current employees that wouldn't be possible through some strategic changes with the current setup?

Items for Governor/MBTA:

• Build a real Management Board that has accountability tied to it. Include local representation, and ensure a good mix of financial, policy, and engineering knowledge is present on the Board at all times
• Bring in a Safety Officer with proven experience and give them a John Dalton-esque level of freedom over the management and implementation of Safety - redesign the org chart, remove positions, add others, redevelop training programs from the ground up, etc.
• Negotiate with unions on higher pay for bus and rail operators and expedite or eliminate the part-time "requirement"
  • I believe improved working conditions for dispatchers is included in the FTA findings response - this should be expanded to a long-term Capital Investment Plan in all operating facilities. Improve working conditions and you'll see higher retention of operators, dispatchers, etc.

Items for legislature:

• Ensure a properly funded Operating Budget
• Ensure a properly funded Capital Budget

What we're getting instead:

• Rumors that the top pick for GM is from Ottawa, where there have been some relevant safety concerns the past few months as well
• 2+ years of a bus operator shortage with no update about pay, continuous cuts in service, and virtually no questions from the Board
• Weak budget proposals, sometimes (almost unbelievably) ignorant legislation being proposed.
• Legislators attending a Draft Kings launch party at the exact moment the interim GM explains their decision to impose global speed restrictions

Items nobody can really address at this point without Federal intervention:

• Procurement of a failing car manufacturer that was bought out by an unqualified bidder

 

[KentXie]

That, or it's possible to appreciate what you have, while acknowleding that improvements can, and should, be made.

I don't feel I've been gaslit by the T or anyone; I just prefer to enjoy the resources available to me. In fact, once I take the dog out for a quick walk, I'll be hopping on the Green Line and heading into DTX for a few hours and then returning by the same method. Just as I've done three times already this week. I enjoyed those trips and I'm looking forward to today's.

I've traveled to all 3 cities you mentioned and apart from SF, NYC's MTA and Chicago's CTA is miles ahead of the MBTA. The idea that people would be "stoked" about having a public transit like the MBTA is such a YMMV, that declaring that has zero value. All I can say is, in the past year, the MBTA has made headlines on national news for the wrong reasons more than any other transit agency, save for maybe the MTA (due to the assaults on passenger which really doesn't have anything to do with the agency operating it)

 

[Delvin4519]

One question that has bothered me lately, now that we're seeing systemwide global slow zone and whatnot, is how much of the MBTA's death spiral can be attributed directly or indirectly to the COVID-19 pandemic? As opposed/versus underfunding/debt/mismanagement/corruption. Obviously the latter played a large role in the MBTA being in a state of death sprial present day, but what factors in particular, were responsible by the pandemic restrictions and whatnot?

Here's a list of MBTA's issues today that were in part, mostly likely directly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, as opposed to underfunding/debt/mismanagement/corruption:

1. GLX delayed to December 2022, 1 year delay (supply chain and COVID restrictions)
2. Budget shortfalls and budget deficits (caused by work from home, due to COVID-19, cutting fare revenues by over half)
3. Bus operator shortages (I don't believe there was bus operator shortage on December 31st, 2019, and that the MBTA was indeed running full bus service on Dec. 31 2019; today's increases in cost of living caused by COVID suplly chain issues)
4. Outdated fare collection and delayed over budget fare modernization (Delays are attributed to COVID-19)
5. Delays in new Red Line and Orange Line vehicles (caused by COVID-19, may be responsible for the Red Line death last year, which triggered FTA response, which triggered MBTA subway service cuts.)
6. No increase in gas tax in Massachusetts (This was in the MA legislature in March 2020, before COVID suspended any plans to raise the gas tax to fund MBTA modernization and safety improvements)

Put it this way, what if the COVID-19 pandemic didn't happen? Where would the MBTA be today were it not for the pandemic to occur?

First, ridership would continue pre-COVID trends. Traffic would also continue to worsen from pre-pandemic trends. This would mean the gas tax and ridershare fees would have been raised by the proposed 5 cents. This would have brought hundreds of millions in funding for the MBTA in a hypothectical no-COVID-pandemic world of mid/late-2020, 3 years sooner and earlier than today. With full ridership, the budget forecasts would be much more optimistic than we see today. The GLX project would be ongoing and completed by December 2021. The Red and Orange Line procurment would continue, without any COVID-19 lockdowns or supply chain issues. If there were delays, then there would not be a pandemic to make them orders of magnitudes worse like we see today. By April 2022 in a non-COVID world, it would be likely there would be much more new Red Line cars on the tracks, with older Red Line cars beginning to be scrapped. Therefore, the incident that happened in April 2022 might not have occurred. Hence, it would likely not trigger an FTA response, which would mean that the MBTA would continue to run full subway service. With more new Orange Line cars, the MBTA might have needed to increase Orange Line service beyond December 2019 levels, after 3 years. Without the COVID pandemic, there would not be signficant inflation issues or work from home's dominance, which would then MBTA would continue to run full bus service, at the same budgets and pay rates of pre-COVID. The MBTA's bus network redesign would therefore be much further along the process than we are today.

What are your thoughts? Is the COVID-19 pandemic therefore responsible putting the MBTA in a state of a transit death sprial? That the MBTA was bad and mismanaged pre-COVID, and the pandemic was enough to push the MBTA over the threshold of rapid decay and disintegration?

 

[Brattle Loop]

What are your thoughts? Is the COVID-19 pandemic therefore responsible putting the MBTA in a state of a transit death sprial? That the MBTA was bad and mismanaged pre-COVID, and the pandemic was enough to push the MBTA over the threshold of rapid decay and disintegration?

I can't entirely say I agree. It's more like Covid blew off the vinyl siding, revealing that the wall underneath had been devoured by termites. Even if Covid hadn't derailed the gas tax hike, there's no guarantee that the money would have a.) gone mainly to the MBTA or b.) been spent effectively. They very clearly demonstrated for many, many years before 2020 that they weren't particularly good at efficient spending.

More to the point, bus service aside, the decay of the rapid transit system was not, particularly, Covid-related. Obviously we don't know all the details, but it certainly seems at this point that CRRC's difficulties are hardly all attributable to the pandemic (and both pre-and-post-2020 there have been issues of varying significance with the CRRC cars), so I don't know that that would have changed much except the timeline. The rotting-away of the older Red and Orange Line cars is not pandemic related, it is the inevitable result of the agency's previous decision to neither rehab their two oldest fleets (would have been the #1 Red Line cars' second rehab) nor replace them. Even if all the CRRC cars had been delivered (without Boeing/Breda-style teething problems) on the as-ordered-schedule, the #12 cars would have been pushing 40 and the #1 cars pushing 30-35 since rehab, both well past the point (double, in the OL's case) when you'd normally expect a refurbishment/rebuilt. They put themselves in a position where any significant delays - quite possibly just the CRRC-incompetence delays - put them at risk of severe service disruption on the vehicle end. (And, recall, that even the comparatively-smoother EIS of the Siemens #5 cars was significantly delayed by the bankruptcy of a component manufacturer.) Without knowing more on how much of the CRRC problems are pandemic-independent, I don't think we can say it was the pandemic that was specifically responsible. (To be honest, I think the T got lucky the #12 cars held out as long as they did.) And, let us remember, that the current subpar service levels on the Orange Line are not specifically vehicle-related, they're dispatcher related.

Hence, it would likely not trigger an FTA response, which would mean that the MBTA would continue to run full subway service.

This is where I think the pandemic-caused-the-death-spiral argument is at its weakest. The T was operating in a dangerously unsafe manner, without any significantly-meaningful safety oversight. Something was always going to bite them. Yeah, if the CRRC cars were on time, maybe it's not this specific incident, but it'd be something else (more Green Line trolleys hitting each other?). The agency was rotting from the inside for decades. Did the pandemic accelerate the disintegration? Maybe. Certainly in some areas. But I think it more revealed it, stopped things up enough to stop them being able to constantly paper over the cracks.