One question that has bothered me lately, now that we're seeing systemwide global slow zone and whatnot, is how much of the MBTA's death spiral can be attributed directly or indirectly to the COVID-19 pandemic? As opposed/versus underfunding/debt/mismanagement/corruption. Obviously the latter played a large role in the MBTA being in a state of death sprial present day, but what factors in particular, were responsible by the pandemic restrictions and whatnot?
Here's a list of MBTA's issues today that were in part, mostly likely directly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, as opposed to underfunding/debt/mismanagement/corruption:
1. GLX delayed to December 2022, 1 year delay (supply chain and COVID restrictions)
2. Budget shortfalls and budget deficits (caused by work from home, due to COVID-19, cutting fare revenues by over half)
3. Bus operator shortages (I don't believe there was bus operator shortage on December 31st, 2019, and that the MBTA was indeed running full bus service on Dec. 31 2019; today's increases in cost of living caused by COVID suplly chain issues)
4. Outdated fare collection and delayed over budget fare modernization (Delays are attributed to COVID-19)
5. Delays in new Red Line and Orange Line vehicles (caused by COVID-19, may be responsible for the Red Line death last year, which triggered FTA response, which triggered MBTA subway service cuts.)
6. No increase in gas tax in Massachusetts (This was in the MA legislature in March 2020, before COVID suspended any plans to raise the gas tax to fund MBTA modernization and safety improvements)
Put it this way, what if the COVID-19 pandemic didn't happen? Where would the MBTA be today were it not for the pandemic to occur?
First, ridership would continue pre-COVID trends. Traffic would also continue to worsen from pre-pandemic trends. This would mean the gas tax and ridershare fees
would have been raised by the proposed 5 cents. This would have brought hundreds of millions in funding for the MBTA in a hypothectical no-COVID-pandemic world of mid/late-2020, 3 years sooner and earlier than today. With full ridership, the budget forecasts would be much more optimistic than we see today. The GLX project would be ongoing and completed by December 2021. The Red and Orange Line procurment would continue, without any COVID-19 lockdowns or supply chain issues. If there were delays, then there would not be a pandemic to make them orders of magnitudes worse like we see today. By April 2022 in a non-COVID world, it would be likely there would be much more new Red Line cars on the tracks, with older Red Line cars beginning to be scrapped. Therefore, the incident that happened in April 2022 might not have occurred. Hence, it would likely not trigger an FTA response, which would mean that the MBTA would continue to run full subway service. With more new Orange Line cars, the MBTA might have needed to increase Orange Line service beyond December 2019 levels, after 3 years. Without the COVID pandemic, there would not be signficant inflation issues or work from home's dominance, which would then MBTA would continue to run full bus service, at the same budgets and pay rates of pre-COVID. The MBTA's bus network redesign would therefore be much further along the process than we are today.
What are your thoughts? Is the COVID-19 pandemic therefore responsible putting the MBTA in a state of a transit death sprial? That the MBTA was bad and mismanaged pre-COVID, and the pandemic was enough to push the MBTA over the threshold of rapid decay and disintegration?
www.wcvb.com
