Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail (South Coast Rail)

[Rover]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Rover, YOU ARE THE ONE WHO HAS BEEN PLAYING THIS CARD for your last so many posts. You've been saying the few need to be sacrificed for the many, with "few" being Lakeville and "many" being South Coast.

Your last sentence in this paragraph is precisely what I was warning YOU about. You don't need to turn it around and warn me of it, I've been on the short end of that thinking plenty of times, I'm fully aware of it.

Also, in your first sentence, you warn that nothing will ever get done if this approach gets used. Actually, all sorts of transit work is getting done (not as much as I'd like) and GLX might get back on track too (I know, not certain yet). Hell, even SSX and NSRL are being floated again. Why is it that some work is getting done, while SCR is forever on the backburner? Because this "sacrifice the few for the many" logic - that YOU have been advocating should be used, not me - tends to put South Coast on the perpetual losing end.

A little psychological projection maybe? If you think I'm playing a bad card, maybe you ought to explain why you've been playing it for several days now?

Lets get back on track here (pun intended).

Somebody brought up the effect of a station move on people in Lakeville. A good point and a proper consideration, but not enough to derail the entire project (see Harbor Towers example) IMHO. There was a tangent about how this will scare all of the region's real estate agents away from making deals which seems a bit overblown since moving T stations has in fact happened before (in Boston) and we managed to stave off cannibalism in the years that followed but again I feel for this handful of people. However, I've got to be honest here. Not everybody is going to be completely happy. If that was the goal, nothing would ever get done.

Next the projects you site as being closer than SCR which is on the backburner with the exception of GLX are wishful thinking. Our grandchildren probably won't live long enough to see NSRL. Even SSX, a frankly more worthwhile project than SCR, is nowhere close to even starting and everybody is completely on board with it.

Finally you seem to imply public works projects are subject to some sort of statewide referendum, and you're this close to leaning on your reps to oppose SCR forever. Look, no offense, but I highly doubt ANY of these current proposed projects really register on the average person's radar. GLX a little when the contractors tried to screw the state. What South Coast pols need to do is convince Baker that a cost effective expansion is worthwhile. If they can do so, and we'll see when we get a new study hopefully with ridership projections and the like, it may get built before NSRL or even SSX because it in theory is a simpler project with less moving parts. Time will tell...

 

[JeffDowntown]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

There was a tangent about how this will scare all of the region's real estate agents away from making deals which seems a bit overblown since moving T stations has in fact happened before (in Boston) and we managed to stave off cannibalism in the years that followed

I am not sure what you mean by "stave off cannibalism", but the move of the Orange Line alignment from the core of Roxbury to the Roxbury/JP line (NEC Corridor) was hugely disruptive to Roxbury, and has certainly not been forgiven in that community.

And it has taken 30 years for residential TOD to finally start happening along the realigned Orange Line -- I have to wonder how much of that time was due to developer uncertainty about the controversial realignment.

 

[FK4]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Jeff it ain't worth it man. The guy has to have the last word and will play as far and loose with the facts as necessary in order to justify his pet project. For him, it's personal, and there's no making rational arguments with someone taking the subject personally.

 

[Rover]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Jeff it ain't worth it man. The guy has to have the last word and will play as far and loose with the facts as necessary in order to justify his pet project. For him, it's personal, and there's no making rational arguments with someone taking the subject personally.

Not at all. I'm asking doubters to take a fresh look at things, complete with new #'s when they come. Unfortunately people who were rightly opposed to the old proposal seem hell bent on opposing anything for any reason. This is detrimental to the public good. However, if you'd like exchange insults instead I'd be more than happy to do so. Either way works for me.

 

[fattony]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

fattony you have a pretty simplistic view of things. Sure, why can't every city outside of Boston just start creating jobs locally? Gee, why didn't anybody think of that before? Also, as I mentioned earlier, anybody still quoting the 2.3Bn figure is either into strawman arguments, likes long winded posts, or their girlfriend banged someone from the south coast and this is revenge. I'll leave it to you to tell us which one it is that applies to you.

I don't at all have a simplistic view of things. I'd argue the contrary. SCR is clearly well intentioned, but come on pull your head out of the sand. This thing has been doomed since the minute they published ridership projections. A shiny new choo-choo to the big city is, at best, a half-baked solution to complicated problems facing the South Coast and a host of other cities across Mass and the US.

You think its cute to post internet eyerolls and ad hominems, but I think you need to reexamine the very weak position you are taking. The SCR boondoggle deserves an eyeroll and taxpayers ought to be asked to invest in viable, sustainable economic development. I know it hard problem and I don't have the answers. But it clearly is a problem that can't be bandaided by a fucking choo-choo train.

 

[GP40MC]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

I would argue that framing the SCR project as just for New Bedford and Fall River has always been wrong. This is also about the towns and Taunton along that corridor - even if Raynham, Easton and Stoughton won't admit it. Ridership from Taunton north is where the biggest counts would be initially.

SCR has been delayed, delayed and made more expensive as years marched on. A good tactic that ramped up the cost of Greenbush (though apparently not enough). F-Line has summed up my feelings about this project in regards to the Army Corp study and its conclusions.

And now we have the damn Middleboro reroute back on the table. One big sigh and shrug of resignation. The SCR haters are on the cusp of victory I'm afraid. One can only hope when it comes time to expand RT24 to four lanes, they are there to demand it be elevated where it crosses the Hock!

 

[millerm277]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

I would argue that framing the SCR project as just for New Bedford and Fall River has always been wrong. This is also about the towns and Taunton along that corridor - even if Raynham, Easton and Stoughton won't admit it. Ridership from Taunton north is where the biggest counts would be initially.

Stoughton already has CR service and Easton residents can go in any direction other than South and be at a CR station in <15 minutes. SCR certainly won't be a bad thing for them, but it's not particularly gamechanging for them.

 

[Arlington]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

20-minute clockface service to Middleboro/Wareham and Attleboro/Providence, with good park and rides has always struck me as a serious contender for the best park and ride solution (particularly since it directs cars into an east-west rush hour perpendicular to the current north-south one)

 

[Joel N. Weber II]

Re: Taunton to Boston commute

I'm wondering if Taunton would be best served by bus service to Mansfield.

Google Maps tells me going from Taunton (whatever point in the city it picks) to Mansfield MBTA is 28 minutes in typical traffic via Bay St and I-495. Mansfield is then roughly 30-45 minutes to South Station, and Mansfield probably will get more frequent service than any Taunton station ever would.

Less than $10 million could probably easily buy enough battery powered buses from a manufacturer like Proterra to cover the route with 15 minute headways. $5 million might even be enough if the buses won't get stuck in traffic and the bids are aggressive enough.

 

[Rover]

Re: Taunton to Boston commute

I'm wondering if Taunton would be best served by bus service to Mansfield.

Google Maps tells me going from Taunton (whatever point in the city it picks) to Mansfield MBTA is 28 minutes in typical traffic via Bay St and I-495. Mansfield is then roughly 30-45 minutes to South Station, and Mansfield probably will get more frequent service than any Taunton station ever would.

Less than $10 million could probably easily buy enough battery powered buses from a manufacturer like Proterra to cover the route with 15 minute headways. $5 million might even be enough if the buses won't get stuck in traffic and the bids are aggressive enough.

I don't think this works. Lets say the Taunton commute times are accurate door to door (and I'm somewhat skeptical). You'd have to build in the 15 minutes you mention for traffic, getting off bus and on to train, etc. That's about 45 minutes on top of a 45 minute commuter rail ride. For that kind of time people will just drive themselves in. Not to mention this does nothing for people who are south of Taunton.

Run the rail to Taunton and your park and ride idea works. Its a straight shot up 24 and 140 which meet up in Taunton near where the train station should be located.

20-minute clockface service to Middleboro/Wareham and Attleboro/Providence, with good park and rides has always struck me as a serious contender for the best park and ride solution (particularly since it directs cars into an east-west rush hour perpendicular to the current north-south one)

Not workable because there are no good east west connections. You either go on 195 which runs from roughly the Cape bridges to Providence, or you go on 495. Either way you're getting caught in brutal traffic (Providence) or you're going north then, south east or southwest to get to a train station. Oddly enough the rail track from Middleborough to Taunton cuts through the woods and is a more direct connection.

 

[34f34f]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Unfortunately this was posted April 2, not April 1: "THE STATE’S TOP ENVIRONMENTAL OFFICIAL on Monday gave the green light to a project that would phase in rail service from Boston to New Bedford and Fall River, with the first phase launching in 2022."

Baker administration officials say 85 percent of the estimated $935 million cost of the first phase would go for track work connecting Taunton to Fall River and New Bedford. That work is also needed for the second phase, which is expected to be completed in 2028. Together, the two phases are expected to cost $3.3 billion.
Beaton characterized the ridership projections developed by the Baker administration – 1,600 daily riders in 2030 and 3,900 in 2040 — as somewhat uncertain. He noted the Baker administration did not estimate a cost per rider. He said the new rail service would reduce bus ridership between the South Coast and Boston from 2,200 to 1,400 by 2030.

Holy cost-per-rider!
Phase 1: $935 mil for 1600 riders = $584,000 per rider
Phase 1+2: $3.3 bil for 3900 riders = $846,000 per rider
BUT this will actually reduce bus users by 800, so the net new riders is only 3100
Phase 1+2 minus mode shifters: $3.3 bil for 3100 = $1,064,500 per new rider

Did I do this right?
EDIT: no, I didn't--the 1600 estimate is for 2030, which is after Phase 2, not Phase 1. So there will be even fewer new riders for Phase 1, making the cost per rider even higher than I stated above.

 

[HenryAlan]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Will there be any new riders for Phase 1? What trains are running between Taunton and Fall River/New Bedford? Until Phase 2, the answer to that will be none.

[edit]

Okay, read the article, now I understand better. Phase 1 is a rail connection from Boston via Taunton, but using an extension from Midleborough, whereas Phase 2 changes the connection to one made via Stoughton (and is electrified!).

 

[Rover]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Unfortunately this was posted April 2, not April 1: "THE STATE’S TOP ENVIRONMENTAL OFFICIAL on Monday gave the green light to a project that would phase in rail service from Boston to New Bedford and Fall River, with the first phase launching in 2022."



Holy cost-per-rider!
Phase 1: $935 mil for 1600 riders = $584,000 per rider
Phase 1+2: $3.3 bil for 3900 riders = $846,000 per rider
BUT this will actually reduce bus users by 800, so the net new riders is only 3100
Phase 1+2 minus mode shifters: $3.3 bil for 3100 = $1,064,500 per new rider

Did I do this right?
EDIT: no, I didn't--the 1600 estimate is for 2030, which is after Phase 2, not Phase 1. So there will be even fewer new riders for Phase 1, making the cost per rider even higher than I stated above.

My thoughts:

Correct me if I'm wrong in your calculations, but you seem to be equating the one time cost of the extension (phase I for example) with the ridership in one year's time (1600 in 2030). Isn't that an apples and oranges comparison? As in you'd have to put the on time cost up against the lifetime ridership of the transit line, say it runs for 30 years before it needs significant work.

Now mind you I'm not saying don't balk at the price tag, but I see this a lot especially in terms of business tax breaks equated to jobs created, which never take into account the jobs created last more than one year.

EDIT: Having grown up in the area and driving down there occasionally, I think the priority should be extending service to the Cotley Junction in Taunton near the mall and the junction of 24 and 140. That's a pretty easy drive up from the North End of Fall River and will give those people a decent commuter option. Same thing with the New Bedford with the drive up 140.

 

[Schorschico]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

...say it runs for 30 years before it needs significant work.

You are right, but the numbers get (to me) even more depressing if you put a massive number like 100 years. Even then it makes no sense. With 1,000 years it enters the ballpark of reasonable (!). $3 Billion!.

 

[ant8904]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

I hope no one minds the necro, in the General MBTA thread, I see they are adding another $825 million for SCR. But after all these years, I still don't get it. Correct me if I'm wrong, every other rail project seems to be an uphill battle - commuter rail electrification, BLX , Red-Blue Connector, North-South Rail Connector - all of them have advocacy groups and press continually pushing for these projects and it continually needs constant vigilance to make sure funds stay earmarked for even a study much less the later stages.

Then there's South Coast Rail, the Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail. I rarely see positive press on the project. Online comments keeps talking about how it's a waste of money even in railfan circles. I cannot find a single advocacy group pushing for the project. The last comments on this thread is talking about how much it costs per passenger. Yet this project is full steam ahead. Why?

And part of the confusion for me as I think about this is even the politics doesn't make sense to me. Would Baker gain that much more voters building this thing versus pushing for BLX? If it more about the state reps, my understanding the state reps from the North Shore also wants BLX too. Where is this political willpower coming from when I can't find any advocacy groups or positive press?

Or maybe I'm just in a bubble. But that's why I am asking this.

 

[HelloBostonHi]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

It has support in the communities of Fall River and new Bedford, and especially by the mayor's of those two cities. Economically they are both struggling somewhat and a lot of hope has been pegged on a good South coast rail revitalizing these "long neglected eastern Massachusetts towns". A lot of the residents there feel overlooked by the state government and feel that all the budget is spent on Boston metro and nowhere else. It's also an important distinction that SCR provides new transit opportunities for poorer communities that currently have little to no transit connections at all. All the other projects you reference are improvements to areas already served by transit of some form, and in general improvements to higher income areas already served by transit. So from a political standpoint it looks good that they're spending transportation money on the rest of the Commonwealth, not just on Boston. At the end of the day, you need to win more than just Boston to win an election.

Secondly, from a technical standpoint South Coast Rail benefits from the fact it can be built with almost no construction impacts to existing service. A lot of politicians are still scarred from the Big Dig era and know the discontent that comes with disruptive projects of that scale. South Coast Rail construction impacts a couple of small freight lines and a few grade crossings and bridges. The only other major opposition from construction impacts is the traditional NIMBY, loud trains bad, not near my house, too much traffic will be going to the station, etc, type.

Lastly, it's been promised to these two communities for decades, much like GLX. A politician that can claim to have delivered a promise looks good. As much as NSRL, BLX, BL/RL are great projects, no politicians have fully committed to them yet in the same way.

 

[Rover]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

HelloBoston nailed it pretty well. Not to take anything away from the other projects like BLX which are worthwhile, but that's a "you get faster transit with a subway vs commuter rail" improvement instead of "you get transit for the 1st time in 60? years".

I also wouldn't include NSRL in with any of these other projects. That's going to involve massive federal aide and logistical issues galore. This is upgrading an existing right of way.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Building uselessly sparse service at uselessly long schedules on a hack alternative that holds the state to no commitment to fix the brokenness of the service...and, in fact, offers a most convenient escape route for never ever fixing it...is not an economic opportunity. It is very nearly useless for meaningful jobs access to Boston Metro at the schedules proposed, and now chasing a fast-dwindling niche that can tolerate the downsides.

I will never for the life of me understand why frequencies matter to most everyone in the state except this South Coast political constituency, who are just "owed" something even when that something ends up an overly expensive pile of nothing. I guess it's apparently that hard to dislodge a lifelong belief in magic unicorn farts. I've said it before: the "owed to us" crowd who were so sanctimonious about having something/anything are going to ruefully regret that they paid no attention to the service plan all these years when the ribbon cutting ceremonies for steel-and-concrete edifices are done and they realize there's little-to-nothing here they can actually use.

 

[Rover]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

I'm getting a strong whiff of classism out of several posters, whether that's intentional or not. That's unfortunate. As in the only reason for the locals to press for service is that they're "owed" something. I'm not aware of any transit project that worked perfectly from design to implementation and never got tweaked or updated along the way, so that's a straw man argument.

Regarding schedules and commute times, a quick look at the commuter rail schedule shows similar commuting times at the end of the line for Fitchburg, Worcester, etc. If the money is good enough, you'll do the commute. Hell, I live in Arlington and it takes me an hour to get to work from 10 miles away.

Lastly, I'd ask people to consider the bigger picture here. The state has a vested interest in expanding the reach of transit to a wider area. There's too many people crowded into too little space, so aside from a massive building effort in the inner suburbs (HA!) the only other option is to run rail to an underserved area. Not every person is boarding at the end of the line. People from north Fall River or north New Bedford have a straight shot up the highway to the Taunton station. People in Taunton now have better access as well, etc. That's a decent sized population that's now coming on line. No, we don't want to cancel every other project to do this one, but it seems worthwhile for everybody not just the people who live down there.

 

[Java King]

Re: Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail

Building uselessly sparse service at uselessly long schedules on a hack alternative that holds the state to no commitment to fix the brokenness of the service...and, in fact, offers a most convenient escape route for never ever fixing it...is not an economic opportunity. It is very nearly useless for meaningful jobs access to Boston Metro at the schedules proposed, and now chasing a fast-dwindling niche that can tolerate the downsides.

I will never for the life of me understand why frequencies matter to most everyone in the state except this South Coast political constituency, who are just "owed" something even when that something ends up an overly expensive pile of nothing. I guess it's apparently that hard to dislodge a lifelong belief in magic unicorn farts. I've said it before: the "owed to us" crowd who were so sanctimonious about having something/anything are going to ruefully regret that they paid no attention to the service plan all these years when the ribbon cutting ceremonies for steel-and-concrete edifices are done and they realize there's little-to-nothing here they can actually use.

So true! I was a HUGE fan of Greenbush rail restoration and even moved to Scituate BEFORE it was completed. The rail was a big factor in moving to this area.

However, I didn't realize the single track mainline constraint of the Old Colony lines and the crappy and inadequate schedule for Greenbush that would be implemented. It's better than driving during rush-hour commutes, but I think it fails as a useful alternative to driving off-peak schedules. The massive parking lots and infrastructure created on the Greenbush line was money that was somewhat wasted because of frequency and schedule issues.

I see the SAME thing happening with South Coast rail to a greater extent. The travel times and frequency proposed seems like it might potentially work for peak commuting, but even that's a stretch. I'm a huge fan of South Coast rail restoration, but I think it should be the Electric option with a faster and shorter connection to the Providence main line. This is the PERFECT opportunity to show that EMUs with good frequency can be a great solution for the regional transportation of Boston with or without a NS rail link.