I totally get, that adding flights to big hubs is good and big O&D hub markets is better, and that after a merger you "fund" such additions by pulling down minor hubs (as has happened at CVG in favor of DTW, for example).
A merged AA can "fund" growth at LAX ORD and DFW by pulling down PHX. But what does pulling down BOS fund (and where are those planes needed "more")?.
Today, despite ripping out non-hub flying elsewhere, US still flies from BOS to Seems to me that if they "make sense" for US to fly them right now--if they haven't been ripped out yet why rip them out in the future? Unlike PHX, BOS isn't really redundant, unless One World can totally trust JetBlue.
I suspect they're flown by US because they are strong (or strategically important) Star Alliance cities (exactly the kind that the merger should allow a merged carrier to try for) and therefore Star Alliance has felt a need to to offer BOS as a key destination alongside EWR/ORD/IAD/PHL for its customers in PIT, ROC, SYR, RIC, BUF and MDT.
But given that AA/US will compete for the exact same cities from nearly the same hubs (LGA/ORD/DCA/PHL), I'd think One World would *also* find it strategically important to offer BOS to that same list of hinterland cities.
You're right, BOS isn't redundant like PHX, but it is largely irrelevant in terms of network connectivity for both the combined AA-US and their Oneworld partners. Don't get me wrong, BOS is a very strong destination; it's just that offering something like BOS-ROC or BOS-MDT does little to nothing in the overall scheme of things.
I think US's non-hub routes from BOS are still flown for a few reasons. Primarily they are holdovers from their BOS focus city and massive point-to-point network in the Northeast, something they have all but dismantled in favor of focusing resources to consolidate their dominance at PHL and DCA. But aside from this, the reasons why US continues to fly them:
1. They are obligated to a certain level of regional flying with the express carriers they have contracted and the leftover BOS point-to-point routes are likely the least risky or least expensive given the short stage lengths.
2. I think SYR, ROC and MDT are products of express carriers' crew base/hubs in those cities. I know MDT is a base for Piedmont Airlines and given how small its market to BOS is (only 23 total daily passengers), I am guessing the
only reason that is still around is because of crew positioning. Although, looks like the average fares are sky high so that certainly helps in all three cases.
3. RIC, PIT and BUF actually have decent markets to BOS. As such it's no surprise that JetBlue is also in those markets; JetBlue carries nearly the same amount of traffic as US does to PIT and dominates the BOS-BUF/RIC. US closed its PIT hub in the early 2000s and has a massive residual base to draw from there. These were likely the strongest of the Boston point-to-point network US had built up and have stuck around because they haven't come up with a more profitable way to allocate the flying.
Seems to me that pulling out of them would be contingent on cutting a better/stronger deal between One World and JetBlue. And that JetBlue could drive a pretty hard bargain because with US leaving Star, United would be motivated to cut a deal with JetBlue.
(and why not keep MDT, if JetBLue isn't flying it?)
No, pulling out of them will be contingent on whether there is more profitable flying that these regional jets can be doing from other hubs of the combined carrier. I can easily see them cutting all non-hub flying from BOS once the dust settles and they identify better opportunities for those aircraft at hubs like DFW and MIA.
While a standalone AA benefits greatly from a strategic partnership with JetBlue in order to build critical mass at JFK - AA's primary transatlantic hub - the combined carrier won't have to rely on JFK to the same degree at all. AA-US will have a massive omnidirectional fortress hub at PHL while JFK will likely be retooled to better serve the local NYC market. Not to mention, the AA-JetBlue partnership is almost entirely centered around the synergies at JFK for both carriers: AA gets domestic feed while JetBlue gets to connect passengers to AA's international network. BOS, on the other hand, is a priority for JetBlue and nothing more than a spoke for AA (albeit a large one).
