And yet, basically 100% of his target also own a car or can also afford a cab. You're looking at commute-modal-share, he's looking at patron modal share.
It's not about affordability or car ownership. Its about driving in Boston sucking in general, really sucking in the vicinity of both casino sites, and people from the area knowing that. I still haven't heard an answer as to why people/tourists who take the T to do other things in town (symphony, concerts, museums, clubs, fancy dinners, sports, whatever) are going to not want to do that to go to a casino.
I also haven't seen an example of a casino in an urban area with a large transit riding population for comparison. Vegas, Atlantic City and Foxwoods are terrible examples. People drive there because they have no choice, and even then there are casino buses. I don't gamble (because I'm really good at wasting my money all on my own), but my friends do. Every single person I know who drives to Foxwoods complains about having to drive there, and says that if they didn't have to they would go more often. My girlfriend and I both own cars, but I take the T to the Cambridgeside galleria, and when the casino opens I will be taking it to get there to check it out too.
And I'm sure there will be a sleek black shuttle available to many points (likely including Sullivan, but I'm sure he'd rather South Station and Prudential)
This is really all I expect (I would add the airport in as well). A limoliner type of bus running frequently from the casino door to Sullivan and other close/popular destinations. To expect him to build a dedicated RT shuttle or something is nuts.
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Edit for a further thought:
The people who will be going to the Boston casino will be largely the same who currently go to Foxwoods, yes? So you've got rural MA (who are going to go to Springfield for their fix), CT and NY (who are going to keep going to Foxwoods, Atlantic City, or the new NY casinos), Metro Boston (who will go to ours), Rhode Island, who has the choice between Foxwoods and Boston, and NH/VT, who will probably come here.
With an increase in casinos across the board, the Boston casino is going to be pulling from a much smaller pool of potential gamblers to meet its bottom line. With the exception of those driving down from the north, most will be from the immediate area. So to make more money, Wynn is going to have to do one of two things. Cater to the local transit riding population, or heavily market vacation packages to pull people in from other areas of the country.
The vacation package will likely be marketed as being right within Boston. That's bad for Wynn, because it means that people are going to want to leave his casino and go into town and explore, loosing him money. It also means that people are going to want RT service from the casino to downtown. Being surrounded by ye olde Boston instead of desert, trees, or ghetto is bad for keeping people inside your walls.
Marketing to the local populous, however, allows him to tap into the existing pool of college kids, conventioneers, tourists, and residents. It doesn't fill hotel rooms or leave people sitting at a table or slot machine for days at a time, but it does guarantee a steady stream of money coming in from people looking for something to do on a saturday. It also requires a very small investment to tap into: some sort of connection to the existing transit system. These are people who are already here and are looking for something new to do. He just has to get them through the door.
