MA Casino Developments

[davem]

So,

MBTA = LV Monorail
IKEA = Casino
.25mile walk = too far
Transit riders = poor/9-5 commuters

What alternate universe is this I've stumbled into?


Other than perhaps a bridge across the Mystic or a shuttle bus, no one is expecting or demanding new transit service. I don't know where that came from. Its just laughable that there seems to be an expectation that because its a casino people for some reason won't take the T, even though they do for everything else. Its just a building. Whether wynn provides a nice connection or a terrible one, people are going to take the T to get there.

It comes down to this, no one has cited an example from cities in europe, because that's the only place there is one. No US city that has comparable ridership to Boston has a casino, so we have no idea what works. Citing Wynn not connecting to the monorail is a non-point. Its a gimmick, I wouldn't connect to it either. Are we really saying the MBTA is the LV Monorail? Really?

Something else being missed here is that while Atlantic City and Vegas don't have real transit, they have multiple casinos, and a large amount of people walk between them. They may arrive by car or taxi at the start of their trip, but they are walking between things to do.



BTW, ikea pulled out of AS because the projected decline in revenue from their existing store PLUS the value of the land was too great. They also realized that most of the ikea shopping got done the first week of september, when mom and dad were up with cars, so they wouldn't be making as much more money as they thought. That place is a ghost town when I've gone most of the year, nothing like the NJ one. Also, zipcar exploded onto the scene and made not owning a car barely an issue. It had pretty much nothing to do with transit.

 

[Arlington]

Other than perhaps a bridge across the Mystic or a shuttle bus, no one is expecting or demanding new transit service. I don't know where that came from.

It comes from you casually demanding a bridge across the Mystic as if it were "like" a shuttle bus.

BTW, ikea pulled out of AS because the projected decline in revenue from their existing store

Stop. Right there. The Revenue was only getting to their existing (Stoughton) store *by car*--transit is not necessary for IKEA Stoughton. When they opened in Stoughton, their models showed (wrongly) that North-of-Artery store would be needed. They bought the AS parcel because Stoughton was expected to get low/zero people from Boston-Norrth because "traffic was so bad" and/or that city people wouldn't drive--the same propositions that have been advanced here for why Wynn needs transit (and just as erroneous).

But city people--from what had been thought of as Assembly's exclusive catchment-- did and do drive to a place as far as Stoughton. Having a station *ON* the OL would get them nothing more (or not enough more to pass up selling out to TOD). Having the T will get Wynn *not enough more* to warrant his (or anyone else's) investment.


MBTA = LV Monorail (roughly, in that casinos don't need them enough to pay for them...not even to get LV Monorail to LAS Airporrt, even though it comes right to their door and would save each conventioneer a $20 cab ride)

IKEA = Casino (roughly, yes, in being a destination not getting enough upside from transit to pay for its costs or opportunity cost)

.25mile walk = too far (unclear where this comes from, unless it is on a bridge from Assembly, in which case .25mile bridge = too expensive)

Transit DEPENDENT = poor (restated to be true)

Transit Users with Cars for Leisure Trips = 9-5 transit commuters (restated to be true)

 

[davem]

http://www.kswo.com/story/23315483/pedestrian-hit-killed-in-lawton

People in Oklahoma are walking across an interstate highway to get to a casino. You don't think they will want to take the T? (I didn't go looking for this, it popped up while doing a search for pedestrian bridge costs. Ironic, eh?)


Also, how is driving to Stoughton is the same as driving to the tip of Everett?

 

[Arlington]

http://www.kswo.com/story/23315483/pedestrian-hit-killed-in-lawton People in Oklahoma are walking across an interstate highway to get to a casino. You don't think they will want to take the T?

Asked and answered to Fattony's satisfaction (above). Sure, they'd *want* to take the T. At Suffok Downs some *will* take the T. But neither comes close to showing that building/adding T access would be a good investment, nor that SD is the preferred place to put a Casino (as Fattony then explained).

Basically, you've lost your arrow of causality here. Or maybe your greater-than / less-than arrow.

Let's say you produced an article that said "people are crawling a mile on broken glass to get to a Casino"

What would you conclude? Would they *rather* be taking the T? Sure. Would it be a good investment for (somebody) to build a T? No (unless you're a health insurer, then "maybe"). The trips are happening without the T (by car, by shuttle, by death-defying highway crossing, by crawl-on-glass). The T is only a *nice to have* not a *must have* demanding investment. We can't afford "nice-to-have" transit when the real need is must-have projects.

Also, how is driving to Stoughton is the same as driving to the tip of Everett?

Driving to Stoughton is *more extreme* than driving to Everett, and yet people are happy to do it. If they'll go to the extreme of Stoughton (or Foxwoods), they'll certainly be up for drive, or cab, or uber, or Zipcar to Everett (more options, less cost, less driving). Some will even walk 1.1 miles from Sullivan square, I suppose, if they can't bear the thought of a shuttle bus.

People are doing extreme NON-T things to get to a Casino (defy death as a pedestrian in Oklahoma)
People are doing extreme NON-T things to get to IKEA Stoughton
People will do *ordinary* NON-T things to get to an Everett Casino (drive or ride a shuttle)

Save your T-construction dollars to facilitate trips that *aren't happening* (Red-Blue connector), or that are happening at too high a congestion cost (9-5 capacity), not ones that happen just fine by non-Rail.

How to solve the death-defying Oklahoma demand for access? Sound s like they need a shuttle bus.

 

[FenwayResident]

Asked and answered to Fattony's satisfaction (above). Sure, they'd *want* to take the T. At Suffok Downs some *will* take the T. But neither comes close to showing that building/adding T access would be a good investment.

Basically, you've lost your arrow of causality here. Or maybe your greater-than / less-than arrow.

Let's say you produced an article that said "people are crawling a mile on broken glass to get to a Casino"

What would you conclude? Would they *rather* be taking the T? Sure. Would it be a good investment for (somebody) to build a T? No (unless you're a health insurer, then "maybe"). The trips are happening without the T (by car, by shuttle, by death-defying highway crossing, by crawl-on-glass). The T is only a *nice to have* not a *must have* demanding investment. We can't afford "nice-to-have" transit when the real need is must-have projects.

You can't make this argument based on the information you've provided. Sure, there could be 1,000 people willing to crawl on glass to go to the casino. But what if having the T caused there to be 10,000 people willing to go to the casino? Without knowing the casino demand with and without the T, you cannot judge how valuable it is to Wynn. I certainly don't have those numbers, so I'm going to refrain from making a judgement either way. If you do have those numbers, please share them. But all I'm seeing from your arguments is speculation based on the fact that some people are already willing to drive to Foxwoods/IKEA.

On an anecdotal note, my coworkers and I are all professional 20-somethings with good jobs (read: six figures) who live in the city without a car. Having discussed this with them, we would be much, much more likely to spend time at the casino if we could take the T there. I'm sure that Wynn could survive without our business, but perhaps he'd be willing to spend some money to get it?

 

[Ron Newman]

Besides being a casino, this is also a hotel. A *big* hotel. A lot of tourists who stay at hotels don't have cars, because they've flown here from somewhere else.

 

[davem]

How to solve the death-defying Oklahoma demand for access? Sound s like they need a shuttle bus.

They do.


Anyway, my google-fu is lacking, as I'm having trouble narrowing down costs.

From what I can find, a used VanHool bus seems to go for $100,000 - $300,000 a pop. New is of course more. That's before fuel, storage, and driver salary.

Pedestrian bridges seem to go from $700,000 to 24 mil. These figures vary wildly because a lot of the pedestrian bridges I found were architect designed, and span everything from 300' to 3000'. The bare bones concrete ones (a'la the Allston footbridge) are almost impossible to find a price for, since they are usually buried in the costs of an entire project.

The width of the Mystic River is 930' at the dam and 600' along the side of the CR bridge. I don't think Wynn would pay the full cost for a bridge, but considering that there is already demand for a bridge near the Mystic dam, I could see Wynn, the Gateway Center, Somerville and Everett all getting together to fund one. Even if private money isn't involved at all, the Casino may be the critical mass that gets that bridge built.

It comes from you casually demanding a bridge across the Mystic as if it were "like" a shuttle bus.

Other than perhaps a bridge across the Mystic or a shuttle bus, no one is expecting or demanding new transit service. I don't know where that came from.

So not only are you saying Ikea, a cardboard furniture store visited perhaps once every two years, is the same thing as a casino, but that the word "perhaps" is a demand?

I'm not demanding anything. I don't think anyone is. I am stating that Boston has a large transit riding population that is accustomed to using the T for recreation as well as commuting. To say that Wynn "doesn't care" about his target demographic would mean he doesn't care about getting people through the door of his business. That he doesn't care about maximizing the amount of money he can make.

Catch a cab? From most neighborhoods you're talking a $20, $30 fare that would be better spent at the tables; and that's if you can even get one. Drive? Okay, that does work for the metro population that owns a car. Except during rush. Or if you're doing anything downtown that day. Or if you're a tourist. Or conventioneer. Or just don't like driving around the city, which a lot of people don't.

Sorry, I'm just not buying that a Casino is somehow so different from other entertainment that it's going to fundamentally change how people get around. Being IN the city means that the casino is not going to function like Foxwoods, or even Vegas/AC. People aren't going to check in, camp out at a table for days, and then go home. Some will, but most are going to be doing other things around the city. And they aren't going to be driving/taking cabs to do it.

On an anecdotal note, my coworkers and I are all professional 20-somethings with good jobs (read: six figures) who live in the city without a car. Having discussed this with them, we would be much, much more likely to spend time at the casino if we could take the T there. I'm sure that Wynn could survive without our business, but perhaps he'd be willing to spend some money to get it?

This is the general sentiment I've gotten from everyone I've talked to as well. Lanes and Games is another example of this. I would be there one hell of a lot more if it wasn't stubbornly out of reach of Alewife.

 

[Arlington]

You can't make this argument based on the information you've provided. Sure, there could be 1,000 people willing to crawl on glass to go to the casino. But what if having the T caused there to be 10,000 people willing to go to the casino?

If there are, it will be more efficient to target *any* or *all* of them by sending a shuttle or black car *right to their door*. It lets them add only as many seats as "work", and to flexibly target people (individuals, if possible, or offices full).

If Wynn's garage is full, he's going to add parking and add limo/shuttles

If Wynn's casino is empty, he's going to add limo/shuttles

At no moment--IF there are any bugs being worked out-- is gambling on a big fixed piece of infrastructure goingn to be a safe bet for him.

 

[Ron Newman]

Lanes & Games is not a very long walk from Alewife. The problem there is the unpleasantness of the walk, not the distance. (There's no river in the way, as there is between Assembly and the Wynn site.)

ETA: Google Maps says 0.4 miles, 8 minute walk. I think there's a back way through Acorn Park which, though a bit longer, entirely avoids the unpleasantness of walking along the Route 2 sidewalk.

 

[Arlington]

TFrom what I can find, a used VanHool bus seems to go for $100,000 - $300,000 a pop. New is of course more. That's before fuel, storage, and driver salary.

Pedestrian bridges seem to go from $700,000 to 24 mil. These figures vary wildly because a lot of the pedestrian bridges I found were architect designed, and span everything from 300' to 3000'. The bare bones concrete ones (a'la the Allston footbridge) are almost impossible to find a price for, since they are usually buried in the costs of an entire project.

He'll lease his bus (with driver) from someone like Josephs or Paul Revere. If it works, he'll lease another. Seasonally and for conventions he'll lease more. And if buses don't work he'll zero out his bus budget and move on. Very very little risk. Only buy *exactly* as much bus as works and send it to *exactly* where the gamblers are waiting--right to the office door of you and your $100k office mates if you call ahead. Are they going to insist on the T under those circumstances? They'll be everywhere, prowling the curb at the Hynes and BCEC and Logan. And if they suck, he'll pull them and try another trick.

Build a bridge? Threaded through an active rail line and across a half mile of navigable river? Millions. Call it $5million easy. Cash..or long term debt. Doesn't bring in enough people? Bad. Doesn't bring the right people? Very very bad.

TI am stating that Boston has a large transit riding population that is accustomed to using the T for recreation as well as commuting. To say that Wynn "doesn't care" about his target demographic would mean he doesn't care about getting people through the door of his business. That he doesn't care about maximizing the amount of money he can make.

If you're all that, he'll send a limo. To your office building. Or a water shuttle to North Station. Or a shiny shuttle to wherever 20-somethings making six figures congregate. Direct. Door-to-Door, he will hunt you down, and kiss your Assembly Square with his shuttle bus. But he's not building a bridge or anything on a fixed guideway. Casinos do not gamble.

 

[FenwayResident]

If there are, it will be more efficient to target *any* or *all* of them by sending a shuttle or black car *right to their door*. It lets them add only as many seats as "work", and to flexibly target people (individuals, if possible, or offices full).

If Wynn's garage is full, he's going to add parking and add limo/shuttles

If Wynn's casino is empty, he's going to add limo/shuttles

At no moment--IF there are any bugs being worked out-- is gambling on a big fixed piece of infrastructure goingn to be a safe bet for him.

My point is that your entire argument relies on the fact that it will be "more efficient" for Wynn to have shuttles/limos, yet you have no data to back that up. You don't know the induced demand from improving accessibility to the T.

Wikipedia says the daily MBTA ridership is about 1.0M people including subway and busses but excluding commuter rail. Lets be conservative and say half of those people already have cars they would use to drive to the casino. That leaves a market of 500,000 people (plus tourists who don't ride the T every day) for Wynn to tap into. I'd be very surprised if Wynn wasn't at least weighing the effect of improving T accessibility.

 

[davem]

Threaded through an active rail line and across a half mile of navigable river?

The rest of your post notwithstanding, 600'-930' does not a half mile make (more like an eighth). Nor are two train tracks a massive obstacle in the grand scheme of things.

I also like how you ignored the pre-existing demand for a pedestrian bridge in this location.


Edit: I have to wonder the cost to strap a pedestrian walkway to the side of the CR bridge, since for whatever reason the state (or whoever owns it) won't build one at the dam.

 

[Arlington]

Wikipedia says the daily MBTA ridership is about 1.0M people including subway and busses but excluding commuter rail. Lets be conservative and say half of those people already have cars they would use to drive to the casino. That leaves a market of 500,000 people (plus tourists who don't ride the T every day) for Wynn to tap into. I'd be very surprised if Wynn wasn't at least considering looking into improve T accessibility.

Shuttle bus. If the bus is overwhelmed with T-rider demand, he'll send more. That's it.

 

[Ron Newman]

Arlington, what you seem to be missing here is that the city and state are giving Wynn the privilege of building this casino. In exchange, they have the right to demand traffic mitigation, and they should aggressively do so.

A bridge (or a 24-hour on-demand ferryboat) is a way to leverage Wynn's project to achieve an already-desired goal: connecting the new Everett-Malden-Revere-Saugus-Lynn path to Somerville.

 

[Ron Newman]

1100 feet (about 1/5 mile) is the as-a-bird-flies distance from Assembly Square station to Wynn's property. Only part of that distance is river.

 

[Arlington]

http://www.freemaptools.com/radius-...=0.44757303434433016&lc=FFFFFF&lw=1&fc=00FF00

Bridges need approaches on both sides, and in this case, you've got an active freight-and-commuter line to work around, and an active waterway to work under, and a cold winter to get through.

The rest of your post notwithstanding, 600'-930' does not a half mile make (more like an eighth). Nor are two train tracks a massive obstacle in the grand scheme of things.

Says you, spending other people's money.

I also like how you ignored the pre-existing demand for a pedestrian bridge in this location.

Sure, pedestrians want a free bridge and will use it if offered one. That's not "demand", that's "willing to take a hand out, if offered"

 

[Arlington]

Arlington, what you seem to be missing here is that the city and state are giving Wynn the privilege of building this casino. In exchange, they have the right to demand traffic mitigation, and they should aggressively do so.

A bridge (or a 24-hour on-demand ferryboat) is a way to leverage Wynn's project to achieve an already-desired goal: connecting the new Everett-Malden-Revere-Saugus-Lynn path to Somerville.

Ron, That Monsanto site is the kind that is really hard to redevelop, which is why Everett has jumped at the chance.

 

[whighlander]

Besides being a casino, this is also a hotel. A *big* hotel. A lot of tourists who stay at hotels don't have cars, because they've flown here from somewhere else.

Ron --NO it is not a BIG Hotel

These are BIG Hotels and Casinos

Biggest Hotels [many with casinos$]
2 MGM Grand Las Vegas Las Vegas 6,852 $
3 First World Hotel Genting Highlands (Malaysia) 6,118
4 Disney's All-Star Resort Orlando 5,524 in 30 Buildings - 3 floors each (rank on this list disputed because Disney sells rooms in All-Star Movies, All-Star Music and All-Star Sports separately and treats them as separate hotels, not one hotel)
5 Wynn Las Vegas + Encore Las Vegas Las Vegas 4,734 $
6 Luxor Las Vegas Las Vegas 4,408 $
7 THEhotel + Mandalay Bay + Four Seasons Las Vegas 4,332 $
8 Ambassador City Jomtien Pattaya 4,219
9 The Venetian Las Vegas Las Vegas 4,049 $
10 Excalibur Hotel and Casino Las Vegas 4,008 28 floors $
11 Aria Resort & Casino Las Vegas 4,004 $
12 Caesars Palace Las Vegas 3,960 (6 towers) $
13 Bellagio Las Vegas Las Vegas 3,950 (2 towers) $
14 Sheraton Macao Macau 3,896 Sky tower, Earth tower $
15 Circus Circus Las Vegas Las Vegas 3,774 (3 towers) $
16 Shinagawa Prince Hotel Tokyo 3,680
17 Flamingo Las Vegas Las Vegas 3,565 $
18 Hilton Hawaiian Village Honolulu 3,386 7 towers
19 Atlantis Paradise Island Paradise Island 3,200 $
20 The Palazzo Las Vegas 3,068 53 floors $

By comparison the largest hotel in Boston is:
Table 2
125 Sheraton Boston 1,220

The Wynn is porposed to be about the size of the Omni Parker House or the Seaport Hotel -- about 400 rooms

 

[datadyne007]

I don't think this one was ever posted either. I found this on the Metro's website.

Apparently it's the Mohegan Sun proposal for Suffolk Downs/Revere. Lol'ing at the moon and shooting star in the rendering. It looks like a space station/moon base hahaha.

 

[MBTAddict]

...if it was a moon base you wouldn't be able to see the moon in the sky...